By far the dominant political force in Scotland for the past decade, nothing so far suggests 2021 will be any different. However, recent polling is divided on whether the party will regain the majority it lost in 2016, and the impact of the Alba Party remains to be seen. […]
We’ve got another new pollster on the scene, who suggest big wins for the SNP and Greens, versus the poorest performances this month for Labour and the Lib Dems. They also find a narrow lead for Independence, as Scotland continues to inhabit the constitutional margin of error. […]
We bring a month bursting with by-elections to a close with an expectedly easy Conservative victory in Perthshire, and the SNP as clear winners in what could have been a very tight three-way contest. […]
A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead. […]
An almost new pollster swells the ranks of those taking the Holyrood temperature, finding majorities for the SNP and Independence, though neither are comfortable, whilst the two big opposition parties lose seats to their smaller counterparts. […]
2016 marked a remarkable revival for the Conservatives after two decades in the doldrums, as they displaced Labour as the second party at Holyrood. Current polling has them not far off their 2021 results, but enough to lose a handful of seats. […]
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016. […]
Two very different by-elections in Argyll & Bute gave us one ward where the Conservatives easily won on first preferences alone, and another where an Independent squeaked past the SNP at the very last stage to nab the seat. […]
Two by-elections in Glasgow delivered high drama in my own ward with a narrow Labour victory over the SNP, whilst the other ward was almost completely status quo. […]
The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge. […]
Copyright © Allan Faulds (Ballot Box Scotland) 2021
