Scottish polling seems to have settled into a roughly monthly rhythm at the moment, though after months of Panelbase polls it’s nice to have a bit of a change with a YouGov.
Scotland’s most prolific pollster, Panelbase, is back back back again. This one follows exactly a month after their last, covering the 1st to the 5th of June.
Apologies for the delay in this full analysis of the third Panelbase poll of the year. Full tables haven’t been available!
The SSP thing is a weird YouGov blip, everyone, behave yourselves.
It’s been a dramatic year in politics in the UK, and even going back to the start of the year feels like a completely different world.
I’m back with one final GE19 post, this time on the effect of prospective new Scottish Westminster boundaries. Whether these boundaries are the ones we end up with for the next election or not, they are a reminder of the fundamentally undemocratic nature of FPTP.
Having worked out a simple PR model for the 2017 election just before GE19, it was easy to slot the numbers from this year in too. In an election notable for its tactical voting and heavily distorted result, I imagine a possible alternative to Westminster’s antiquated, unfair and fundamentally undemocratic voting system.
We’ve gone from a whopping 46 marginal constituencies to just under half as many with a much more manageable 22. Whenever the next election rolls around, it now has a completely different set of key battlegrounds to the top 20 most marginal seats I covered in the run up to GE19.
Now that we’ve seen the SNP vote rebound whilst the Conservatives slump and Labour collapse yet further, we have a whole new set of battlegrounds for next time. Before we get onto those in tomorrow’s post however, let’s take a quick look at the swings that have set them up
For something a bit less numerically minded today, let’s look at one of the common consequences of parliamentary elections – council by-elections.