Bit of a surprise Polling and Projections post this one, off the back of Panelbase’s poll from the 20th to 22nd. I only do these posts when there’s Holyrood data, and the initial release of data was entirely Westminster and Independence. A week later though it turned out they had asked for Holyrood VI as well, an unexpected bonus. I can only hope that Ipsos MORI did the same, because the totally arbitrary “average of the last five polls” I do due to a general dearth of Scottish polling has 4 Panelbase polls feeding into it. I just want some diversity, please, someone commission another pollster.
Display format;
- Party – Vote% (Change vs last poll by agency / Change vs last election or referendum)
Holyrood Voting Intention and Projection (Tracker)
Regional;
- SNP – 39% (+1 / -3)
- Con – 25% (+4 / +2)
- Lab – 17% (-1 / -2)
- LD – 9% (-2 / +4)
- Green – 6% (nc / -1)
- Brexit – 3% (-1 / +3)
- UKIP – 0% (-1 / -2)
The big story here is that in the space of just over a month there’s been a substantial recovery for the Conservatives, putting them above their 2016 election result. Almost everyone else is down a bit since the last poll, with the Lib Dems most notably dipping back into single figures for the first time since May’s EU elections, and UKIP support disappearing entirely. Only the SNP, who have a small bump, and the Greens, who are static on their typically low Panelbase figure, resist the downwards pull.
Constituency;
- SNP – 43% (+1 / -4)
- Conservative – 26% (+5 / +4)
- Labour – 17% (-2 / -6)
- Liberal Democrat – 9% (-1 / +1)
- Brexit – 3% (-1 / +3)
- Green – 2% (-1 / +1)
- UKIP – 0% (-1 / nc)
As you’d expect, it’s much the same for the Constituency vote – Conservatives up substantially, SNP up slightly, everyone else down.
If we project that into seats it might look like;
- SNP – 60 (-2 / -3)
- Conservative – 34 (+7 / +3)
- Labour – 22 (-1 / -2)
- Liberal Democrat – 9 (-5 / +4)
- Green – 4 (+1 / -2)
You have to go back about 7 polls to March to see a poll with as much blue stretching up through Tayside, Aberdeenshire and Moray. The support the Conservatives had shed to the Brexit party after that seems to have almost entirely returned, helping them boost their constituency seat count. That’s also why the Greens have ended up with one more seat projected despite being on the same vote share as last month, as Conservative constituency gains in Mid Scotland and Fife relieve the pressure on the lists caused by our old friend overhang. With the SNP down 2 however, that reverses the narrow constitutional balance of last month’s poll, to 65 pro-Union vs 64 pro-Independence. Usual caveats about projections apply, but note that this is again poll with zero Labour constituencies.
Doing that just for fun more proportional system I like to use to illustrate the imperfections of AMS, seats would come out at (vs AMS projection);
- SNP – 53 (-7)
- Conservative – 33 (-1)
- Labour – 23 (+1)
- Liberal Democrat – 12 (+3)
- Green – 8 (+4)
With Brexit on 3% we’re back to just the Holyrood 5 even on this more proportional system.
Westminster Voting Intention (Tracker)
- SNP – 40% (+1 / +3)
- Conservative – 28% (+7/ -1)
- Labour – 20% (+1 / -7)
- Liberal Democrat – 11% (-1 / +4)
- Brexit – 1% (-4 / +1)
- Green – 0% (-2 / nc)
- Note: Brexit were <1% at circa 0.9%, Greens were 0.4%
These figures were the first out last week, and were the first confirmation of a dramatic Conservative recovery as the Brexit vote melted away due to the combination of General Election squeeze and limited rate of contesting. That means the party have gone from expecting an almost total wipeout to only marginal losses. Labour meanwhile still come out very poorly and likely to lose most of their seats.
Constitutional (Independence Tracker)
Usual Independence question;
- No – 47% (nc)
- Yes – 45% (-1)
- Don’t Know – 7% (nc)
Excluding Don’t Knows;
- No – 51% (+1/ -4)
- Yes – 49% (-1 / +4)
After last month’s absolutely knife-edge poll, this one is… a slightly thicker knife. Scotland remains roughly evenly split on the big constitutional question, which is unlikely to go away anytime soon as a result. Doing the usual purely for fun uniform swing projection versus 2014 would see 12 council areas vote Yes and 20 No.
After skipping it last time, they also asked the usual Brexit question;
- Remain – 61% (-1)
- Leave – 35% (+1)
- Don’t Know – 3% (+1)
Excluding Don’t Knows;
- Remain – 63% (+1 / -1)
- Leave – 37% (-1 / +1)
The last time Panelbase polled this was way back in May, but it’s unsurprising to find that opinion remains roughly where it has been in Scotland for the past few years – firmly behind Remain.
They also asked a couple of other constitutionally focused questions. Firstly, on whether Independence or Brexit was a greater threat to Scotland’s economy;
- Independence Much Greater – 28%
- Independence Somewhat Greater – 9%
- Neither/Equal – 24%
- Brexit Somewhat Greater – 15%
- Brexit Much Greater – 24%
So overall, more people expect Brexit to cause more damage than do Independence, but those who said Independence would be more damaging are more likely to think it highly so. The other question was the opposite, on which offered more opportunities for Scotland’s economy;
- Independence Much Greater – 30%
- Independence Somewhat Greater – 15%
- Neither/Equal – 31%
- Brexit Somewhat Greater – 12%
- Brexit Much Greater – 12%
On the other hand, people were almost twice as likely to view Independence as presenting an economic opportunity than they were Brexit, with more people viewing Independence as a much greater opportunity than viewed Brexit as either somewhat or much greater.
