We haven’t actually had a full Survation poll since March last year, so this is a welcome bit of diversity in terms of polling agencies.
SNP – 64
Conservative – 24
Labour – 24
Green – 9
Lib Dem – 8
For the very first Scottish election of the decade, we were down in Dumfries and Galloway. The stonking Conservative figure means this is the first single-seat by-election since Ballot Box Scotland launched two years ago where the winner did so on first preferences.
It’s been a dramatic year in politics in the UK, and even going back to the start of the year feels like a completely different world.
With the General Election out of the way and Christmas looming, it’s time for Ballot Box Scotland to neatly wrap up the year’s council by-elections.
I’m back with one final GE19 post, this time on the effect of prospective new Scottish Westminster boundaries. Whether these boundaries are the ones we end up with for the next election or not, they are a reminder of the fundamentally undemocratic nature of FPTP.
Having worked out a simple PR model for the 2017 election just before GE19, it was easy to slot the numbers from this year in too. In an election notable for its tactical voting and heavily distorted result, I imagine a possible alternative to Westminster’s antiquated, unfair and fundamentally undemocratic voting system.
We’ve gone from a whopping 46 marginal constituencies to just under half as many with a much more manageable 22. Whenever the next election rolls around, it now has a completely different set of key battlegrounds to the top 20 most marginal seats I covered in the run up to GE19.