Region Overview

Central Scotland incorporates the historically heavily industrialised stretch of the Central Belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh. It consists of parts of three Council Areas – Falkirk and North Lanarkshire in full, plus the central portion of South Lanarkshire. The original 1999 version of the Central Region extended even further, incorporating the Kilmarnock and Loudon area of East Ayrshire!

From the centuries-old burghs of Falkirk and Hamilton, to the mining and steelworking capitals of Coatbridge and Motherwell, and the Glasgow-overspill New Towns of Cumbernauld and East Kilbride, this region is defined by Central Belt Scotland’s industrial heritage. That meant the area was overwhelmingly Labour by the latter half of the 20th century. Cumbernauld did briefly have a Conservative MP as part of the East Dunbartonshire constituency in February 1974, before that then became an SNP MP from October that year until 1979. 

After that, the whole area was consistently Labour for parliamentary elections, with no other party really getting a look in. When Labour swept almost every seat in the Central Belt in 1997, that just meant their already weighty majorities in this area were padded further.

At that first election, the only thing that prevented them from winning every constituency in the region was their decision not to select incumbent Labour MP Dennis Canavan as their candidate for Falkirk West. A popular local figure, he won easily as an Independent. The list seats then went five to the SNP, with one apiece for the Lib Dems and Conservatives.

MSPs Elected:
9 Labour (all Constituency)
5 SNP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Independent (Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West Constituency)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

In 2003’s Rainbow Parliament, the same pattern of constituencies prevailed, but the weakening of the SNP vote and surge for smaller parties saw them lose two seats. In their place came one Scottish Socialist Party MSP and, uniquely, a Scottish Senior Citizen’s Unity Party MSP in the form of John Swinburne.

MSPs Elected:
9 Labour (all Constituency)
3 SNP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Independent (Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West Constituency)
1 SSP (Regional)
1 SSCUP (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

Falkirk West remained a non-Labour constituency in 2007, though following Canavan’s retirement it was the SNP who picked it up. They also gained the Kilmarnock and Loudon seat, in the last election it formed part of this region. The collapse of smaller parties saw those two rainbow list seats return to the SNP as well.


8 Labour (all Constituency)
7 SNP (5 Regional, 2 Constituency)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

With the SNP surging to majority government in 2011, they picked up six of the nine constituencies in the redrawn region, leaving Labour with just three. Both parties then picked up three list seats to join the single Conservative, as the cratering Lib Dem vote relieved their MSP of a seat.

MSPs Elected:
9 SNP (6 Constituency, 3 Regional)
6 Labour (3 Constituency, 3 Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)

2016 would bring further success for the SNP in the Constituency races, winning all of them. In compensation, Labour were left with four list seats, and the sudden growth in Conservative support saw that party win the remaining three. Growth for the Greens wasn’t enough to secure a seat, and despite small gains for the Lib Dems, this was the only region they were pushed into 6th place by UKIP.

MSPs Elected:
9 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (all Regional)
3 Conservative (all Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

At this point, with the SNP still polling extremely well and Labour lower than their 2016 result, don’t expect to see any changes in the constituencies. Those are almost certain to see the SNP romp home with a clean sweep again.

If change does come, it’ll be via the list seats. Both Labour and the Conservatives are at risk of losing a list seats here, with the latter currently more likely to do so according to my model. Looking within the pro-Union bloc, with their Brexit Bounce all but dissipated the Lib Dems are vanishingly unlikely to do nab a seat given this is their weakest region.

The SNP’s strength here is such that on a good day could actually pick up a list seat in addition to their constituency haul, but that may need more growth than polling suggests they’ll achieve. Alternatively, the Greens need the least growth (around 2,000 votes short in 2016) of any challenging party to pick the seat up, and seem most likely to do so at this moment in time.

Region Map

Overall Regional Result 2016

Regional List Vote and MSPs Elected


#1: Labour - Richard Leonard
#2: Conservative - Margaret Mitchell
#3: Labour - Monica Lennon
#4: Labour - Mark Griffin
#5: Conservative - Graham Simpson
#6: Labour - Elaine Smith
#7: Conservative - Alison Harris

Constituency Vote

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Total MSPs Elected


9 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (all Regional)
3 Conservative (all Regional)

Regional List Candidates 2021

  1. Danish Ashraf
  2. Christina McKelvie
  3. Neil Gray
  4. Michelle Thomson
  5. Fulton MacGregor
  6. Stephanie Callaghan
  7. Grant Ferguson
  8. Iain Sinclair
  9. Paul Welsh
  10. Josh Wilson
  11. Cameron McManus
  1. Stephen Kerr
  2. Graham Simpson
  3. Meghan Gallacher
  4. Haroun Malik
  5. Neil Benny
  6. Ross Lambie
  7. Nathan Wilson
  8. Gordon Macdonald
  9. Bryan Flannagan
  1. Richard Leonard
  2. Monica Lennon
  3. Mark Griffin
  4. Monique McAdams
  5. Chris Costello
  6. Michael McPake
  7. Allyson Black
  1. Gillian Mackay
  2. Rosemary McGowan
  3. Claire Williams
  4. Tom McLaughlin
  5. Patrick McAleer
  6. Kyle Davidson
  7. James Stuart Duffin
  1. Paul McGarry
  2. Mark McGeever
  3. Dawn Allan
  4. Graham Watson
  5. Ewan McRobert
  6. Karen Utting
  7. Austin Reid
  1. John Mortimer
  2. Lee William
  1. Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh
  2. Lynne Anderson
  3. Jim Walker
  4. Margaret Lynch
  1. Mary Devlin
  2. Jonathan Stanley
  3. Matt Alexander
  4. Sandra Hill
  5. Billy Ross
  6. Sandy Smart
  7. Lachlan Macneil
  1. Dave Frankland
  2. Claire McClaren
  3. John Irvine
  4. Louise Bannigan
  5. Di Meechan
  6. Colin McMillan
  1. Leo Lanahan
  2. John McGrory
  3. Helen McEachen
  4. Christine MacIver
  5. Christopher Anthony Hendry
  1. Mark Meechan
  2. Katrina Jane Angus
  1. Alan Melville
  2. Hugh MacDonald Skinner
  3. Alexander MacGregor
  4. Ann Murray
  1. Neil Wilson
  2. Yvonne MacKay
  3. Steve Unwin
  4. George Cowan
  1. John Robertson
  • Paddy Hogg

Airdrie and Shotts

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Alex Neil
Majority: 6192 (23.3%)
Turnout: 49.4%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Neil Gray
Conservative: Ross Lambie
Labour: Richard Leonard
Liberal Democrat: John Cole
Independent: Jimmy Dowson

Coatbridge and Chryston

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Fulton MacGregor
Majority: 3779 (13.3%)
Turnout: 53.4%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Fulton MacGregor
Conservative: Gordon Macdonald
Labour: Michael McPake
Liberal Democrat: Mhairi Macdonald
Family Party: Leo Lanahan

Cumbernauld and Kilsyth

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Jamie Hepburn
Majority: 9478 (33.4%)
Turnout: 56.8%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Jamie Hepburn
Conservative: Haroun Malik
Labour: Mark Griffin
Liberal Democrat: Elaine Ford

East Kilbride

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Linda Fabiani
Majority: 10979 (31.7%)
Turnout: 56.8%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Collette Stevenson
Conservative: Graham Simpson
Labour: Monique McAdams
Liberal Democrat: Paul McGarry

Falkirk East

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP - Angus MacDonald
Majority: 8312 (25.6%)
Turnout: 54.1%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Michelle Thomson
Conservative: Neil Benny
Labour: Allyson Black
Liberal Democrat: Paul Rolfe
Independent: Peter Kyrkant

Falkirk West

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP - Michael Matheson
Majority: 11280 (35.2%)
Turnout: 53.8%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Michael Matheson
Conservative: Stephen Kerr
Labour: Monette Gordon
Liberal Democrat: Austin Reid

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP - Christina McKelvie
Majority: 5437 (18.8%)
Turnout: 50.2%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Christina McKelvie
Conservative: Meghan Gallacher
Labour: Monica Lennon
Liberal Democrat: Mark McGeever

Motherwell and Wishaw

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP - Clare Adamson
Majority: 6223 (21.4%)
Turnout: 51.2%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Clare Adamson
Conservative: Nathan Wilson
Labour: Martine Nolan
Liberal Democrat: Martin Veart
UKIP: Neil Wilson
Libertarian: Mark Meechan
Communist: Daniel Lambe

Uddingston and Bellshill

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP - Richard Lyle
Majority: 4809 (16.3%)
Turnout: 51.5%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Stephanie Callaghan
Conservative: Bryan Flannagan
Labour: Frank McNally
Liberal Democrat: Dawn Allan