General Election 2019 Hub

Ballot Box Battlegrounds

I was born in 1990. At no point in my lifetime have so many Scottish seats been marginal as they were in the 2017 General Election. For decades, Labour held unassailable majorities in seats across the Central Belt. In 2015, the SNP swept across Scotland in a tsunami that gave them similarly stonking majorities in even more of the country. Then after decades of dominance (by one party or the other), the snap election in 2017 brought a comparatively fractured picture. The majorities set in that election now mean that 46 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies require a swing of 5% or less in order to change party.

In that sense we can say a whole three quarters of Scotland’s seats will be marginals worth keeping an eye on in this snap election. There’s barely a contest in the country that doesn’t have the potential to be interesting. To highlight the most marginal of the marginals, I’ll be looking at the top 20 marginal constituencies (by %) in my Ballot Box Battlegrounds series.

Polling

 

 

Candidates and 2017 Results

2017 Majority: 11.3% (50th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Nurul Ali (Labour)
Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
Isobel Davidson (Liberal Democrat)
Ryan Houghton (Conservative)
Guy Ingerson (Green)
Seb Leslie (Brexit)

2017 Majority: 10.7% (48th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Stephen Flynn (SNP)
Douglas Lumsden (Conservative)
Shona Simpson (Labour)
Ian Yuill (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 0.5% (6th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
William Crossman (Liberal Democrat)
Neil Gray (SNP)
Helen McFarlane (Labour)
Rosemary McGowan (Green)
Lorraine Nolan (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 6.6% (32nd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Dave Doogan (SNP)
Kirstene Hair (Conservative)
Ben Lawrie (Liberal Democrat)
Tamara Miller (Labour)

2017 Majority: 2.8% (16th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Rhea Barnes (Labour)
Gary Mulvaney (Conservative)
Brendan O’Hara (SNP)
Alan Reid (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 6.0% (28th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Helena Bongard (Liberal Democrat)
Allan Dorans (SNP)
Martin Dowey (Conservative)
Duncan Townson (Labour)

2017 Majority: 8.9% (43rd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Brian Balcombe (Labour)
David Duguid (Conservative)
Paul Robertson (SNP)
Alison Smith (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 21.1% (58th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Ian Davidson (Labour)
Calum Kerr (SNP)
John Lamont (Conservative)
Jenny Marr (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 6.6% (34th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Cheryl McDonald (Labour)
Karl Rosie (SNP)
Andrew Sinclair (Conservative)
Sandra Skinner (Brexit)
Jamie Stone (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 2.8% (17th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Emma Farthing (Liberal Democrat)
Louise McPhater (Labour)
Derek Stillie (Conservative)
Phillippa Whitford (SNP)

2017 Majority: 3.5% (20th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Steven Bonnar (SNP)
Hugh Gaffney (Labour)
Patrick McAleer (Green)
Alan Stevens (Liberal Democrat)
Nathan Wilson (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 9.7% (46th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Roz McCall (Conservative)
Stuart McDonald (SNP)
James McPhilemy (Labour)
Susan Murray (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 10.9% (49th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Richard Arkless (SNP)
Alister Jack (Conservative)
William Laurie (Liberal Democrat)
Ted Thompson (Labour)

2017 Majority: 19.3% (56th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Amanda Burgauer (SNP)
Nick Chisholm (Labour)
John Ferry (Liberal Democrat)
David Mundell (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 15.5% (55th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Michael Crichton (Liberal Democrat)
Rosalind Garton (Labour)
Stewart Hosie (SNP)
George Morton (Independent)
Philip Scott (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 13.6% (52nd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Quinta Arrey (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Daniel Coleman (Liberal Democrat)
Chris Law (SNP)
Jim Malone (Labour)
Stuart Waiton (Brexit)
Tess White (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 1.7% (13th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Rebecca Bell (Liberal Democrat)
Moira Benny (Conservative)
Douglas Chapman (SNP)
Mags Hall (Green)
Cara Hilton (Labour)

2017 Majority: 10.3% (47th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Amy Callaghan (SNP)
Rosie Dickson (Independent)
Pam Gosal (Conservative)
Donald MacKay (UKIP)
Liam KcKechnie (Scottish Family Party)
Callum McNally (Labour)
Carolynn Scrimgeour (Green)
Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 7.1% (36th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Erica Bradley-Young (Green)
Lisa Cameron (SNP)
Gail Macgregor (Conservative)
David MacKay (UKIP)
Monique McAdams (Labour)
Ewan McRobert (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 5.5% (25th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Craig Hoy (Conservative)
Kenny MacAskill (SNP)
Robert O’Riordan (Liberal Democrat)
David Sisson (UKIP)
Martin Whitfield (Labour)

2017 Majority: 8.8% (42nd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Carolann Davidson (Labour)
Paul Masterton (Conservative)
Andrew McGlynn (Liberal Democrat)
Kirsten Oswald (SNP)

2017 Majority: 7.9% (39th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Sheila Gilmore (Labour)
Claire Miller (Green)
Eleanor Price (Conservative)
Jill Reilly (Liberal Democrat)
Tommy Sheppard (SNP)

2017 Majority: 2.9% (18th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Heather Astbury (Renew)
Deidre Brock (SNP)
Steve Burgess (Green)
Iain McGill (Conservative)
Gordon Munro (Labour)
Robert Speirs (Brexit)
Bruce Wilson (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 32.4% (59th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Alan Beal (Liberal Democrat)
Nick Cook (Conservative)
Catriona MacDonald (SNP)
Ian Murray (Labour)
Kate Nevens (Green)

2017 Majority: 2.2% (15th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
David Ballantine (Brexit)
Mev Brown (Social Democratic Party Scotland)
Joanna Cherry (SNP)
Sophie Cooke (Labour)
Tom Inglis (Liberal Democrat)
Callum Laidlaw (Conservative)
Ben Parker (Green)

2017 Majority: 5.7% (27th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Craig Bolton (Labour)
Elaine Gunn (Green)
Graham Hutchison (Conservative)
Christine Jardine (Liberal Democrat)
Sarah Masson (SNP)

2017 Majority: 9.1% (44th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Safia Ali (Labour)
Tom McLaughlin (Green)
John McNally (SNP)
Lynn Munro (Conservative)
Austin Reid (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 6.3% (31st Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Elaine Gallagher (Green)
Faten Hameed (Labour)
Ewan Hoyle (Liberal Democrat)
Flora Scarabello (Conservative)
Alison Thewliss (SNP)

2017 Majority: 0.2% (4th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
James Harrison (Liberal Democrat)
Thomas Kerr (Conservative)
David Linden (SNP)
Kate Watson (Labour)

2017 Majority: 3.2% (19th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Andrew Chamberlain (Liberal Democrat)
Dionne Cocozza (Brexit)
Tony Curtis (Conservative)
Pam Duncan-Glancy (Labour)
Patrick Grady (SNP)
Cass Macgregor (Green)

2017 Majority: 0.8% (11th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Lauren Bennie (Conservative)
Anne McLaughlin (SNP)
Nicholas Moohan (Liberal Democrat)
Paul Sweeney (Labour)

2017 Majority: 6.6% (33rd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Ade Aibinu (Conservative)
Patricia Ferguson (Labour)
Carol Monaghan (SNP)
James Speirs (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 4.5% (21st Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Carole Ford (Liberal Democrat)
Dan Hutchison (Green)
Johann Lamont (Labour)
Stewart McDonald (SNP)
Danyaal Raja (Brexit)
Kyle Thornton (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 0.2% (3rd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Peter Brown (Brexit)
Ben Denton-Cardew (Liberal Democrat)
Thomas Haddow (Conservative)
Matt Kerr (Labour)
Chris Stephens (SNP)

2017 Majority: 8.1% (40th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Pat Egan (Labour)
Victor Farrell (Brexit)
Peter Grant (SNP)
Jane Liston (Liberal Democrat)
Amy Thomson (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 4.9% (22nd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Colin Clark (Conservative)
Heather Herbert (Labour)
James Oates (Liberal Democrat)
Richard Thomson (SNP)

2017 Majority: 1.0% (12th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
Haroun Malik (Conservative)
Martin McCluskey (Labour)
Jacci Stoyle (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 9.3% (45th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Ariane Burgess (Green)
Les Durance (Brexit)
Fiona Fawcett (Conservative)
Drew Hendry (SNP)
Robert Rixson (Liberal Democrat)
Lewis Whyte (Labour)

2017 Majority: 13.5% (51st Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Alan Brown (SNP)
Caroline Hollins (Conservative)
Stef Johnstone (Libertarian)
Kevin McGregor (Labour)
Edward Thornley (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 0.6% (9th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Gill Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrat)
Neale Hanvey (SNP)
Lesley Laird (Labour)
Kathleen Leslie (Conservative)
Scott Rutherford (Green)
Mitch William (Brexit)

2017 Majority: 0.5% (8th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Angela Crawley (SNP)
Shona Haslam (Conservative)
Andrew Hilland (Labour)
Jane Pickard (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 5.2% (24th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Marc Bozza (Brexit)
Martyn Day (SNP)
Charles Kennedy (Conservative)
Gillian MacKay (Green)
Wendy Milne (Labour)
Sally Pattle (Liberal Democrat)
Mark Tunnicliff (Veterans and People’s)

2017 Majority: 7.4% (37th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Hannah Bardell (SNP)
Charles Dundas (Liberal Democrat)
Cameron Glasgow (Green)
Caitlin Kane (Labour)
Damian Timson (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 2.0% (14th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Steve Arrundale (Liberal Democrat)
Rebecca Fraser (Conservative)
Danielle Rowley (Labour)
Owen Thompson (SNP)

2017 Majority: 8.7% (41st Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Fiona Campbell Trevor (Liberal Democrat)
Jo Kirby (Labour)
Laura Mitchell (SNP)
Douglas Ross (Conservative)
Rob Scorer (UKIP)

2017 Majority: 0.8% (10th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Angela Feeney (Labour)
Marion Fellows (SNP)
Meghan Gallacher (Conservative)
Christopher Wilson (Liberal Democrat)
Neil Wilson (UKIP)

2017 Majority: 6.8% (35th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Alison MacCorquodale (Labour)
Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Neil Mitchison (Liberal Democrat)
Jennifer Ross (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 7.7% (38th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Patricia Gibson (SNP)
Cameron Gilmore (Labour)
David Nairn (Green)
David Rocks (Conservative)
Louise Young (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 0.0% (1st Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Wendy Chamberlain (Liberal Democrat)
Stephen Gethins (SNP)
Wendy Haynes (Labour)
Tony Miklinski (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 6.2% (30th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Luke Graham (Conservative)
Stuart Martin (UKIP)
John Nicolson (SNP)
Lorna Robertson (Labour)
Iliyan Stefanov (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 19.6% (57th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
David Barnard (Independent)
Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat)
Coilla Drake (Labour)
Jennifer Fairbairn (Conservative)
Robert Leslie (SNP)
Robert Smith (Brexit)

2017 Majority: 5.6% (26th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Gavin Newlands (SNP)
Julie Pirone (Conservative)
Ross Stalker (Liberal Democrat)
Alison Taylor (Labour)

2017 Majority: 6.1% (29th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Mhairi Black (SNP)
Jack Clark (Liberal Democrat)
Mark Dougan (Conservative)
Moira Ramage (Labour)

2017 Majority: 0.0% (2nd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Peter Barrett (Liberal Democrat)
Angela Bretherton (Labour)
Angus Forbes (Conservative)
Stuart Powell (Brexit)
Pete Wishart (SNP)

2017 Majority: 15.4% (53rd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Gavin Berkenheger (Conservative)
Kate Brownlie (Brexit)
Ian Blackford (SNP)
Donald Boyd (Scottish Christian Party)
John Erskine (Labour)
Craig Harrow (Liberal Democrat)
Richard Lucas (Scottish Family Party)

2017 Majority: 0.5% (7th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Margaret Ferrier (SNP)
Ged Killen (Labour)
Janice MacKay (UKIP)
Mark McGeever (Liberal Democrat)
Lynne Nailon (Conservative)

2017 Majority: 0.3% (5th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Stephen Kerr (Conservative)
Bryan Quinn (Green)
Fayzan Rehman (Liberal Democrat)
Mary Kate Ross (Labour)
Alyn Smith (SNP)

2017 Majority: 15.4% (54th Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Andrew Bowie (Conservative)
Paddy Coffield (Labour)
Fergus Mutch (SNP)
John Waddell (Liberal Democrat)

2017 Majority: 5.2% (23rd Closest)

2019 Candidates:
Peter Connolly (Green)
Martin Docherty-Hughes (SNP)
Jennifer Lang (Liberal Democrat)
Alix Mathieson (Conservative)
Jean Mitchell (Labour)
Andrew Muir (Independent)

An alternative version of results can be found on the 2017 Elections page. There’s also an accompanying spreadsheet version.

Note: Please bear with the basic graphics on the other page – that was one of the first big round ups of data when this project launched, and I’ve never gotten back round to sprucing it up!

MPs Standing Down

  • Bill Grant (Conservative) – Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
  • Ross Thomson (Conservative) – Aberdeen South