Scotland’s leading party for a half-century, Labour have been languishing in third place since 2016. They’ve never increased their share of votes or seats at a Holyrood election, and polling suggests 2021 will be no different. Can a newly elected leader turn things around? […]
Giving us classic STV action in 2017 with an SNP first preference lead but Labour winning the re-calculation for a single councillor, this result wasn’t nearly so close, as the SNP swept to an easy victory. […]
What could have been a tight contest in this ward, and looked wafer-thin on first preferences, was a good old-fashioned romp home for an Independent candidate, in true Highland style. […]
In a contest to replace a sadly departed SNP councillor, the Conservatives were expected to come out on top based on 2017 results, and duly did so. With three different Independents accounting to 41% of the 2017 vote not on the paper however, results aren’t entirely comparable. […]
In the third of our polls from the same period, we have the first projection showing the SNP short of a majority since January last year. Support for the Union continues to rebound, as do the Conservatives, who’ve went from an all-term low to better than 2016 figures in just two months. […]
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year. […]
Our first two by-elections of 2021 saw Labour victorious in both wards – contrary to some on social media, this was the expected outcome! Both wards are now represented entirely by Labour councillors, giving me another opportunity to dunk on how terrible STV is as a system. […]
The Greens displaced the Lib Dems to become Holyrood’s 4th party in 2016, and could be on track for further growth if – if! – positive polling is accurate and holds up. Relatively even support could count for or against the party, with just 2% of the vote making the difference between 3 or 10 seats. […]
In a particularly tumultuous period, this poll projects to the barest SNP majority possible, plus losses for the Greens, whilst Labour have the first poll since early 2019 to suggest they might gain seats. And after months of leads for Yes, it’s a tie on the constitutional question. […]
Party profiles start with Holyrood’s fifth placed party, the Lib Dems. A coalition partner in the first two terms following devolution, 2016 was their worst result yet. Polling suggests there may be a chance to regrow this time – if the votes come from the right places. […]
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