Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Summer by-elections continue in a sorrowful vein with Larkhall in South Lanarkshire. Labour councillor Lesley McDonald sadly passed away earlier this year, creating a vacancy that will now be filled for just 10 months. McDonald had first become a councillor in 2007, when she was elected to represent the SNP. She was re-elected under that banner in 2012, but defected to Labour in May 2014; quite the moment in Scottish political history for such a party swap, it must be said! After missing out in 2017, she was able to return in 2022.
Ward Details
Larkhall is one of 20 wards in South Lanarkshire, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. As you’d expect this covers the town of Larkhall, as well as several neighbouring villages: Ashgill, Netherburn, Quarter and Rosebank. No boundary changes here, so this ward is the same as it has been since 2007.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency that the SNP won when it was created in 2011. Labour had won this from the SNP at a by-election in June last year following the tragic death of Christina McKelvie, but their hold was brief as it reverted to the SNP this year. Barring Quarter, it was in the Clydesdale constituency under the original 1999 boundaries, which was Labour through that period.
Electoral History
Councillors Elected
Two very distinct eras to representation in Larkhall. In both 2007 and 2012, the ward split two apiece between Labour and the SNP. These were all the same councillors at both election.
In 2017 and 2022, one of those SNP councillors was replaced by a Conservative. McDonald lost out in 2017 in large part because the two other Labour councillors stood for re-election, and both of them (Burns and Carmichael) had the advantage of being higher up the alphabet. Jackie Burns was expelled from Labour almost immediately after the election in 2017, and his unsuccessful run as an Independent in 2022 was what re-opened the door for McDonald.
Vote Shares
Looking at the voting pattern over the period, Labour begin with a very slender majority of all votes cast. The SNP were a distant second behind this, but absolutely miles ahead of everyone else, hence their double. One little thing that’s worth mentioning because it feeds into some later narrative, the 6.6% “Other” in 2007 is entirely for the Scottish Unionist Party, a hardline Pro-Union microparty. 2012 then looks broadly similar but with a solid gain for the SNP in votes.
The Conservative revival in 2017 was very strong in Larkhall, bringing them very close to beating the SNP, and bringing Labour down substantially below a majority of the vote for the first time. That vote held up relatively well in 2022 meaning they easily held their seat. Although Labour had their worst result this far, when you account for the 10% won by Jackie Burns as an Independent and where his transfers went, Labour’s “true” loss of support looks more like 1% than it does the 7% the chart indicates.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
đź”´Labour: Andy Carmichael
🔵Conservative: Richard Nelson
🟡SNP: Ross Clark
đź”´Labour: Lesley McDonald
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 42.2%
Electorate: 15010
Valid: 6193 (97.7%)
Spoiled: 146 (2.3%)
Quota: 1239
Candidates
⚪Independent: Jackie Burns
đź”´Labour: Andy Carmichael
🟡SNP: Ross Clark
🟤Libertarian: David Laird
🟤UKIP: Donald MacKay
đź”´Labour: Lesley McDonald
🔵Conservative: Richard Nelson
đźź Lib Dem: Jake Stevenson
🟡SNP: George Sutherland
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First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election Details
Candidates
A very, very quiet candidate slate for this by-election, as not only do we have neither the Greens nor the Lib Dems out of the Holyrood parties, but we’ve not got any Independents or microparty candidacies either. Of this bunch, only two are recent returnees: both the SNP and Conservative candidates contested the neighbouring Avondale and Stonehouse ward in 2022.
Conservative: Gary Burns
Reform UK: Fiona McDermott
SNP: Leigh Payne
Labour: Chris Roarty
Analysis
Comparing against 2022, Labour very handily beat the SNP for a single seat, and indeed the SNP weren’t that far ahead of the Conservatives who would lose similarly hard. However, in 2026 I highly doubt it’s going to be either of those parties that Labour are fending off.
Larkhall has something of a reputation for being a very… staunchly Pro-Union part of Scotland. I noted earlier on the quite creditable vote share the Scottish Unionist Party won in this ward in 2007. The scale of the Conservative gains in 2017 and maintenance of most of that vote in 2022 speak to that element of local demographics. In other words, this is an absolutely perfect opportunity for Reform UK.
In last month’s Scottish Parliament election, Reform performed well above their average in the overlapping Holyrood constituency. Indeed, they even very narrowly beat Labour for second place on the regional list vote. Given demographics, I would expect that both the Reform and Labour shares will be higher in Larkhall than elsewhere in the constituency, and potentially to the extent that Reform were even further ahead of Labour here.
Basically, I expect the combined Pro-Union vote to simply be too high in this ward for the SNP to win. With the Conservatives effectively a dead party walking across the Central Belt at this point, that means it’s going to come down to Labour versus Reform. We should expect Labour to get a lot more SNP transfers than Reform do, but I could absolutely believe Reform placing first overall. If they do so with a big lead over Labour, they may nonetheless weather transfer rounds thanks to how many voters simply exhaust their ballot rather than follow “vote til you boke” advice. If however Labour start ahead or only a smidge behind, SNP transfers will secure their win.
This is also an interesting one to watch for some indications about the full elections next year. My general position now is that in the wards that Labour currently have two councillors, they will lose one of those to Reform… unless there’s a Conservative councillor to take the loss instead. Larkhall is one of very few such wards, so it may help indicate just how much trouble Labour are in for next year’s elections depending on whether they retain enough support (after transfers) to suggest holding onto two councillors at a full vote.
Prediction
Labour-Reform Tossup.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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