Two weeks out of date by this point, the usual pairing of Panelbase and the Sunday Times was a very slow-release poll – bits of it were published the weekend ahead of the local elections, but since the BBS focus is generally on Holyrood, I was waiting for that to come out before I tweeted then published the analysis for the whole thing. Unfortunately, the Holyrood figures don’t appear to have been published anywhere until the final tables appeared on the 9th of May.
At this point, the poll is quite old news, and I’m completely consumed by local election analysis – I’ve been working on BBS an average of 13-14 hours a day since! That’s not a complaint as I love doing this, but it means my capacity for the usual analysis of such a dated poll is minimal – “an actual election that has just taken place” obviously trumps “a poll about one in the future taken before said election”. I don’t want to have a gap in the record though, so I’m publishing this as a sort of “Lite” entry. Just the numbers, nae patter.
The previous Panelbase covered the 9th-12th of November 2021. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election).
Regional Vote
Constituency Vote
Seat Projection
Projecting that into seats might give us something like this:
Please see this page for how projections work and important caveats.
Hypotheticals
As ever, the last little bit of analysis concerns those hypothetical and more proportional voting systems that I have a bee in my bonnet about here at BBS. The fact Westminster uses pure FPTP is an affront to democracy, and though Holyrood fares far better, AMS is still deeply imperfect. The examples here simply transpose the poll findings onto more proportional voting systems – the reality is that different systems would of course result in different voter behaviour.
For the moment, although the maps are useful for illustrative purposes, I’m opting just to show these hypotheticals as charts. It’s very time consuming making maps, and for these pure hypotheticals, it’s possibly a bit overkill.
Scandinavian Style Westminster
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