Hurray, we didn’t have to wait four months for another Scottish Parliament polling! Survation had a complete polling package the other week – this post was awaiting tables then awaiting attention, sorry! The fieldwork for this poll started just before Theresa May locked her cabinet in Chequers, and carried on past cabinet resignations and reshuffles.
So, before anyone gets too excited about the effect of the Brexit shenanigans on this poll, remember it had four whole days of fieldwork already before it really hit the fan when David Davis resigned. Will the ramping up of Brexit-fever have had an effect? Highly likely. Will it alone explain any big changes? Not so likely!
- Party – Vote% (Change vs last poll by agency / Change vs last election)
Holyrood Voting Intention and Projection (Tracker)
- SNP – 43% (+1 / -4)
- Conservative – 24% (-1 / +2)
- Labour – 21% (-4 / -2)
- Lib Dem – 9% (+3 / +1)
- Green – Not prompted for
- SNP – 33% (nc / -9)
- Labour – 21% (-2 / +2)
- Conservative – 19% (-4 / -4)
- Green – 11% (+2 / +4)
- Lib Dem – 10% (+2 / +5)
- UKIP – 5% (+2 / +3)
- SSP – Not prompted for
This poll is really all about relative success for the smaller parties compared with pretty poor showings by the big three. 11% is the highest the Greens have polled since before the snap UK GE. It wasn’t uncommon before then, with YouGov finding similar numbers – that consistency matters, as you’ll see…
The Lib Dems are riding a high, as 10% almost doubles their vote. A note of caution though – Survation have consistently reported higher Lib Dem figures than every other pollster. Since 2016, they haven’t been below 7% for Survation, but haven’t been above it with anyone else.
Speaking of consistently higher figures – 5% is the highest UKIP have polled since 2016. Again, Survation have been consistently high for the Kippers. They haven’t found anything below 3%, but except for one 4% by YouGov, that has been the ceiling for other agencies. Of course, maybe Survation are in the right and the others are wrong…
I’ll be honest and say I’m not convinced this is anything but an outlier – remember even at their peak, UKIP have never won more than 2% in any non-EU election in Scotland. Even with Brexit on the agenda, polling on par with their UK wide polling in Scotland? Hm.
Going to the big parties – the SNP have their best constituency figure since early last year, which helps make up for a stubbornly limp list vote. The Conservatives may be up on their 2016 result in the constituency, but that’s their worst list poll since then, taking quite a dip on the regional. Finally, Labour are down a good bit on the last Survation but relatively static compared to 2016 – down as much on the constituency as they are up on the list, which in Labour’s position is a positive trade.
If we project that into seats it might look like;
- SNP – 59 (+5 / -4)
- Labour – 26 (-3 / +2)
- Conservative – 24 (-4 / -7)
- Green – 10 (nc / +4)
- Lib Dem – 9 (+1 / +4)
- UKIP – 1 (+1 / +1)
Put everything else aside – yep, that’s a UKIP MSP in the South of Scotland. If they hit 5%, they pretty much have to get a seat. In fact they should have a handful – but remember I mentioned “overhang” last month?
In contrast to every other poll since the Westminster snap, this would give a pro-Independence majority in Parliament. Don’t read too much into that, whatever your constitutional persuasion – one poll does not a trend make. Labour are also projected to reclaim 2nd place, not for polling well, but because the Conservatives put in such a poor showing. Again, Survation tend to show that whilst others don’t.
In the constituency stakes, only one is projected to flip in this poll – but you can see a few close calls.
Westminster Voting Intention (Tracker)
SNP – 42% (+3 / +5)
Conservative – 24% (nc / -3)
Labour – 23% (-4 / -4)
Lib Dem – 8% (+1 / +1)
Green – Not prompted for
Westminster polling tells a pretty similar tale to the Holyrood constituency vote. The SNP are pretty buoyant, again showing their best post-GE figure, whilst the Tories and Labour would lose ground.
Independence Voting Intention (Tracker)
- Yes – 42% (nc)
- No – 48% (-2)
- Don’t Know – 10% (+2)
A small shift from No to Don’t Know isn’t much to write home about – and it’s the only reason Yes goes up once Don’t Knows are excluded;
- Yes – 47% (+1 / +2)
- No – 53% (-1 / -2)
They also asked about when to call a future Independence referendum, albeit with a slightly odd question;
- Not at all – 49%
- The autumn – 23%
- After autumn – 19%
- Don’t Know – 9%
That’s all for this poll!