Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Continuing 2025’s much less intense run of by-elections, we’re on yet another jaunt to West Lothian the Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh. SNP councillor Diane Calder announced her resignation just before Christmas, having served as one of the local councillors since 2012. This is a same-term return, as we’d previously had a vote here in December 2022 following the unfortunate passing of Labour councillor Ann Davidson. As such, a lot of what follows is lifted from earlier coverage.
Ward Details
Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh is one of 9 wards in West Lothian, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. The overwhelming bulk of the ward is accounted for in the name, though it also includes the smaller villages of Dechmont and Ecclesmachan. Boundaries in West Lothian have gone unchanged since STV was introduced in 2007, allowing easy comparisons across elections.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward lies entirely within the Linlithgow constituency, which the SNP won in 2011. On previous boundaries, only Winchburgh had been within the Linlithgow seat which was held by Labour from creation of Holyrood, whilst the rest of the ward lay within the Livingston constituency, which was similarly Labour held at first before being won by the SNP in 2007. At the UK Parliament the ward is split with most of it within Livingston, but Winchburgh in Bathgate and Linlithgow. It had previously been almost entirely, bar a small rural patch, in Livingston. Labour gained both of the redrawn seats from the SNP in the 2024 election.
Electoral History
At the initial STV vote in 2007, the ward elected two councillors from Labour, and one apiece from the SNP and local outfit Action to Save St John’s Hospital. In 2012, the SNP displaced the Action councillor, whilst one of the Labour seats shifted to a new councillor. Only the two SNP councillors re-stood in 2017, whilst Labour were reduced to a single councillor as the Conservatives picked up their other seat – late in 2021, they’d also gain the Labour councillor as a defector.
When 2022 returned the same pattern, it was with a new Labour councillor, and the previous Conservative having made an ill-fated shift to Linlithgow to make way for their defection gain. Sadly that wasn’t to last for Labour, as it was their new councillor that passed very shortly after the election and triggered a by-election later that same year.
For the first two elections Labour had a slight advantage over the SNP whilst Action polled respectable double figures, leaving the Conservatives in single digits. That shifted dramatically in 2017, when Labour’s vote took a nosedive into third place as the Conservatives almost quintupled their vote share. Action had disappeared by this point, whilst the Greens and reappearing Lib Dems recorded very modest shares, which continued into 2022.
Labour reasserted themselves in 2022, though with a much bigger gap behind the SNP than the SNP had used to have short of Labour. In the by-election later that year Labour made big gains at almost everyone else’s expense, with two new Independents also picking up a fair few votes. They further consolidated their regrowth here with a big swing in the by-election that followed, against sharp declines in both the SNP and Conservative votes.
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Labour: Tony Boyle
Change vs 2022 (notional): Labour Gain from SNP
Change vs vacating: Labour Hold
Turnout: 27.2% (-15.0)
Electorate: 16545
Valid: 4476 (99.5%)
Spoiled: 24 (0.5%)
Quota: 2239
3 Continuing Councillors:
🟡SNP: Diane Calder
🟡SNP: Janet Campbell
🔵Conservative: Angela Doran-Timson
Candidates
Labour: Tony Boyle
Lib Dem: Peter Clarke
Green: Chris Cotter
Alba: Debbie Ewen
Independent: Chris HorneIndependent: Steven Laidlaw
Conservative: Douglas Smith
SNP: Thomas Ullathorne
First Preferences
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
This time around it’s a purely party-based affair, with the Holyrood 5 plus Reform UK and Alba. Of the candidates, the Green is a direct return from the previous by-election, whilst David McLennan is now something of a repeat Reform UK candidate, having stood for Livingston at the UK election, and in both West Lothian by-elections that came after it. I would assume Alba’s Frank Anderson is the same former councillor who as stood as an Independent in East Livingston and East Calder in 2022, after being deselected by the SNP.
âš«Alba: Frank Anderson
đź”´Labour: June Andrews
🟡SNP: Mike Carlin
🟢Green: Chris Cotter
đźź Lib Dem: Oliver Ferrario
🟣Reform UK: David McLennan
🔵Conservative: Marnie Taylor
Analysis
If we’re comparing with the December 2022 by-election, Labour look like they have a half-decent lead of about 9% after transfers. That’s sufficient that even with some of their current struggles they would be in with a good shot at winning this by-election. However, the SNP won the full election in 2022 by about 7%. That’s where it gets sticky.
What we have seen over the past few months is a gradual weakening of Labour’s ability to deliver swings compared to May 2022, averaging out at less than a 3% swing over the last portion of the year. They went fully into reverse, with an SNP swing against them in Bannockburn in January. Add in the fact that Reform UK have been tearing chunks out of Labour’s vote that hasn’t been entirely willing to transfer back later, and actually Labour’s position here is extremely shaky.Â
I wouldn’t go so far as to give this one a lean SNP, but this is another one that a few months ago would have been a simple Labour victory, no questions asked. Now there is a massive question mark over it, enough that I’m inclined to view this as a pure tossup between the two.
Prediction
SNP-Labour Tossup.
2022 By-Election Results (Detailed Data)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
