The least exciting of the three by-elections that took place on Thursday, from a Scottish perspective it’s the one closest to (but still not actually) a useful national barometer.
By-elections
By-Election Result: Aberdeen South
A high profile move from Westminster to Holyrood leads to an absolutely huge loss for the SNP, as the Conservatives play a blinder of a tactical campaign.
By-Election Preview: Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) 9th of July 2026
A by-election in a staunchly Pro-Union part of the country is a huge opportunity for Reform to score a win, though Labour will benefit more from SNP transfer flows.
By-Election Preview: Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) 2nd of July 2026
A messy vote in a historic SNP heartland, where the Conservatives made stunning inroads post-IndyRef, and Reform lead on one of the votes last month. A tossup between all three, then?
By-Election Preview: Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (UK Parliament) 18th of June 2026
On paper the more marginal of two Scottish by-elections on the same day, in reality changes in support since then likely make this the easier for the SNP to hold.
By-Election Preview: Aberdeen South (UK Parliament) 18th of June 2026
A highly competitive by-election may not garner quite as much attention as one happening on the same day south of the border, but is a key contest in a Scottish context.
By-Election Preview: East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) 25th of June 2026
This is probably going to be a classic Rural Highland contest between the Lib Dems and an Independent of unpredictable popularity. If the top two are the Lib Dems and A.N. Other Party, the Lib Dems will walk it.
By-Election Preview: George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) 25th of June 2026
A by-election a week after a more important by-election covering the same area? Oh that’s a recipe for miserable turnout. SNP still favoured regardless? Probably.
By-Election Result: Bearsden South
An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter’s prospects in May.
By-Election Result: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
An absolutely dire result for Labour bodes ill for their chances in May, and not just because their share of the vote was cut in half.