This page tracks polling for Scottish Parliament elections, as well as seat projections for each poll. I will aim to capture as much data as possible here, but for ease of presentation, the chart will only show parties polling at least 2% of the vote relatively consistently.
The 5-poll average is an arbitrary measure that is provided to give some sense of how support is shifting over time. In countries with more regular polling, something like a 30-day average might be used, but given Scotland is lucky to see one poll a month outside of election campaign periods, we have to make do. Caveats on seat projections can be found here.
Redfield & Wilton Specific Note: Due to specific issues with inconsistent house effects, Ballot Box Scotland no longer reports on Redfield & Wilton polling. Previously, there was a policy of only including one of their polls in the rolling average. This is explained in more detail here, but it is not a circumstance I particularly relish being in.
Current Projection (as of 31st of January 2024)
List Seats Per Region
Total Seats Per Region
Regional (List) Polling
The Regional, or List, Vote is the part of the Scottish Parliament’s voting system which is intended to deliver a degree of proportionality. Within each of the eight Scottish Parliament regions, the combined total of the Constituency Seats (between 8 and 10) plus the 7 Regional List Seats should be roughly proportional to the Regional Vote there. Proportionality is therefore delivered across all seats in the region (between 15 and 17), not just the 7 Regional List Seats.
In that sense, the Regional Vote is the most important, as it determines the overall shape of the Scottish Parliament, and ensures most voters are represented. This is also the vote where individual voters have the most choice between options.
The Constituency Vote is the part of the Scottish Parliament’s voting system which is not proportional. This uses the traditional, in a UK context, First Past the Post system, whereby the single candidate with the most votes is elected to represent the constituency. There are 73 Constituencies in total. FPTP’s lack of proportionality and tendency to leave large numbers, often a majority, of voters without any representation means it is an inadequate system for a genuine democracy. That is partly why the Scottish Parliament was specifically designed not to use it alone.
As this vote is non-proportional, it is uncommon for parties that don’t hold seats in the UK Parliament to contest constituencies at all, meaning voter choice is more limited on this ballot.
Projecting Parliamentary seats from National polling isn’t an exact science. However, due to the partly proportional nature of the Scottish Parliament, it’s slightly less shaky to make projections than it would be with pure FPTP, at least in terms of the overall seat numbers. Please see this page for further information about projection methodology.
A majority in the Scottish Parliament is 65 seats. The chart of averages below shows the projection from the polling averages above, rather than the average of projected seats from each poll.