This page collates some of the polling data that is separate from the “normal” series followed by Ballot Box Scotland on the dedicated polling pages. In the case of the Scottish Election Study, that’s to keep that series separate due to slightly methodological differences with polls by the same pollster that exist in the normal series. For the Savanta and Ipsos data here, it’s because these are additional questions separate from voting intention that are interesting to look at.
Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop)
Starting in December 2021, the Scottish Election Study have been running a periodic poll called the “Scottish Opinion Monitor“, or “Scoop” for short. This asks a range of different questions, and since November 2022 it has included voting intention questions. These polls are conducted by YouGov, but note that Scoop polling uses slightly different methodology to YouGov’s usual polls. As such, YouGov themselves have previously issued the following disclaimer:
“… the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…“
Ballot Box Scotland follows this advice and therefore reports Scoop on a Scoop-to-Scoop basis, rather than comparing with other YouGov polls. This is in principle similar to how reporting changes between polls follows each individual polling company, rather than comparing between different ones. I also do not include Scoop polls in my rolling averages, given that ordinary YouGov polls feature in that and much more frequently. None of this means that there is anything wrong with any of the data reported here, and I’ve chosen to gather it all on this page as a separate series for interest. Note that the data here starts from November 2022.
Note also that whilst Scoop publishes the tables for each poll, these tables do not exclude people who say they Don’t Know, Wouldn’t Vote or Refused/Skipped the question. As YouGov only present their tables with percentages of the sample rather than the exact number of respondents those percentages reflect, it’s not possible to work out a perfectly accurate share once excluding the people who didn’t give a clear voting intention. Figures here may therefore differ by 1% from other places they have been reported, depending on how rounding has been handled.
Scoop Scottish Parliament List Vote
Scoop Scottish Parliament Constituency Vote
Scoop Scottish Parliament Projected Seats
Scoop UK Parliament Vote
Scoop Independence Vote (Headline)
Scoop Independence Vote (Excluding Don't Knows)
Savanta / Scotsman
The partnership between Savanta and the Scotsman produces relatively frequent polling, with a depth that is completely unmatched by any other pollster in Scotland, at least in terms of those releasing the data publicly. Whilst it would be a mammoth task to collate all of that output here, I’ve pulled out some of the most interesting bits and pieces here, most notably on party leader favourability. Note that due to a change in the Savanta website, I haven’t been able to access data earlier to their June 2022 poll, which is where this series therefore starts.
Savanta Leader Favourability (Net)
Question wording: To what extent do you feel favourably or unfavourably about each of the following?
For ease of presentation in the chart, only the net favourability is presented. Respondents were able to give Strongly or Somewhat for either favourable or unfavourable, state Neither, or Don’t Know/Have Not Heard Of. Net favourability is the sum of those giving either favourable option minus the sum of those giving either unfavourable option.
Notes: For the June 2022 poll, UK PM was Boris Johnson, for the October 2022 poll it was Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak for polls since. The First Minister was Nicola Sturgeon for polls up to and including February 2022, and Humza Yousaf for polls since.
Savanta Referendum Timing
Question wording: When, if ever, do you think there should be another Scottish Independence Referendum?
For ease of presentation in the chart, the answers have been condensed such that <1yr stands for “In the Next Year”, <2yr for “In the Next Two Years” and so on.
Savanta Case for Independence
Question wording: Irrespective of how you voted at the last Scottish Independence referendum, and irrespective of how you would vote at a future one, which of the following is closest to your view? (Case for Independence vs 2014)
Savanta Labour UK Government and Independence
Question wording: Imagine, hypothetically, that the Labour Party were in government in Westminster rather than the Conservatives. To what extent would that affect how you may vote in a future Independence referendum?
For ease of presentation in the chart, the answers have been condensed such that MM stands for “Much More” and SM “Somewhat More”.
Savanta Two or Three Option Referendum
Question wording: ‘Devo Max’ is often taken to mean full fiscal autonomy, and as an alternative to both full Scottish independence and retaining the status quo with regards to devolution from Westminster. The principle of ‘Devo Max’ is that, instead of receiving a block grant from the UK Treasury, the Scottish Parliament would receive all taxation levied in Scotland, and would be responsible for most public spending in Scotland, except payments made to the UK government to cover Scotland’s contribution to UK-wide services, often taken to mean defence and foreign affairs. If there were to be a second Scottish Independence Referendum, which of the following would you prefer?
The answers for this were extremely wordy as well, but basically boil down to “Two Option” (i.e. Independence vs Union) versus “Three Option” (i.e. Independence vs Status Quo Union vs Devo Max Union). These questions were only asked for a few months, but are included for interest.
Savanta Support for Devo Max
Question wording: To what extent do you support or oppose the concept of ‘Devo Max’?
These questions were only asked for a few months, but are included for interest.
Ipsos
Ipsos are not the most frequent pollster, but one useful little titbit they do have when they crop up is party favourability ratings. These sometimes pop up even without voting intention figures, so I thought it was worth including these here too.
Ipsos Party Favourability (Net)
Question wording: To what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of X Party?
For ease of presentation in the chart, only the net favourability is presented. Respondents were able to give Very or Fairly for either favourable or unfavourable, state Neither, or Don’t Know. Net favourability is the sum of those giving either favourable option minus the sum of those giving either unfavourable option.