This page tracks opinion on Scottish Independence since the last Scottish Parliament election in May 2021. Polling before then is is not unimportant, this is just about keeping a consistent baseline on this website. Data for the 2016-2021 term of the Scottish Parliament is archived here.

The 5-poll average is an arbitrary measure that is provided to give some sense of how support is shifting over time. In countries with more regular polling, something like a 30-day average might be used, but given Scotland is lucky to see one poll a month outside of election campaign periods, we have to make do.

YouGov-specific note: YouGov is the only pollster that includes both “Refused” and “Would Not Vote” figures in their headline. Especially the “Would Not Vote” figures make very little sense to include, and often lead to YouGov polls only summing to the mid 90%’s for Yes, No and Don’t Know. As this can make the averaging look somewhat odd compared to everyone else, YouGov figures are presented after rounding to only include the three core options, and thus may differ from initially reported figures.

Redfield & Wilton Specific Note: Due to specific issues with inconsistent house effects, Ballot Box Scotland no longer reports on Redfield & Wilton polling. Previously, there was a policy of only including one of their polls in the rolling average. This is explained in more detail here, but it is not a circumstance I particularly relish being in.


Independence - Headline

This includes all three (or the three main, depending on if a poll counts refusals) options – Yes, No and Don’t Know. It’s generally wise to make sure that on this particular issue, you are aware of how many Don’t Knows there are, and don’t simply rely on the Yes-No figures when those are excluded.

Independence - Excluding Don't Knows

These will be the pure Yes-No figures you will often see reported. Whilst that is useful information, on a binary question like this, it has to be taken with some caution. Please make sure to bear the Don’t Knows from the above chart in mind.