By-elections
By-Election Result: Girvan and South Carrick
The Conservatives score a big victory in a by-election without a strong Independent, meaning there’s more nuance to this one than the headline figures suggest. […]
Articles by Ballot Box Scotland
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 13th of September 2023
A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence. […]
By-elections
By-Election Preview: Rutherglen and Hamilton West (UK Parliament) 5th of October 2023
The long saga of Rutherglen and Hamilton West finally draws to a close with a by-election that couldn’t come at a worse time for the SNP – or a better time for Labour. […]
By-elections
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 28th of September 2023
The Lib Dems are given a clearer run at winning the seat vacated by one of their own councillors, as a popular Independent chooses not to attempt a return. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 18th of August 2023
Labour’s best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK. […]
By-elections
By-Election Preview: Girvan and South Carrick (South Ayrshire) 21st of September 2023
Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader’s resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives. […]
Scottish Parliament 2021
Summer Special: What if the Greens contested every constituency?
The Greens’ absence from most constituencies is a widely known feature of Scottish politics. The reasons why, however, are much less weel-kent, and the absence hasn’t been complete, allowing a reasonable guess at an alternative 2021 outcome. […]
By-elections
By-Election Result: East Kilbride West
With a Labour victory already all but assured in this by-election, a second place for the Conservatives was further salt in the wound for the struggling SNP. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 28th of June 2023
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip. […]