A dull campaign has nonetheless sent shockwaves through Scottish politics, with a whole new party in parliament and big gains for the smaller established parties at the expense of those, formerly, larger.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection
The polls are now open, and all that’s left for parties to do is get their own supporters to actually cast their ballot. In the meantime, here’s a run through the most likely outcomes.
Poll Analysis: Survation MRP 20th of April – 5th of May 2026
A third major poll release on the eve of poll continues great news for the Greens, as well as suggesting a relatively strong SNP result. It’s the strongest of the bunch for the Conservatives but weakest for the Lib Dems too.
Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 25th of April – 5th of May 2026
Final day polling is coming thick and fast, none of it good for Labour. The probable best of the bunch for the SNP still has them short of a majority, but another strong result for the Greens.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 1st – 4th of May 2026
The final Ipsos poll of the campaign is good news for Reform, the Greens and Lib Dems, but bad for the SNP, Labour and Conservatives; nonetheless, there’d be a clear Pro-Independence majority.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th – 30th of April 2026
A weaker than average poll for the SNP and best in a while for the Conservatives could suggest a majority remains an unlikely result on Thursday.
Poll Analysis: Survation 17th – 23rd of April 2026
Overlapping with the BBS poll, a second Survation paints a slightly better picture for the SNP and Greens, versus a poorer Conservative and Reform seat tally. Beware the margin of error though!
BBS Exclusive Poll Analysis: Survation 14th – 21st of April 2026
This BBS-commissioned poll is surprisingly poor for the SNP, but still has a small Pro-Independence majority. Nonetheless, John Swinney will be hoping this is an outlier.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 24th of March – 10th of April 2026
An outlier pollster for the SNP, Greens (both low) and Lib Dems (notably high) nonetheless still translates, via the SNP’s constituency dominance, into an expected Pro-Independence majority in the chamber.
Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March – 8th of April 2026
Scepticism about fancy MRP polling aside and just using their vote share figures, the SNP are within touching distance of a majority whilst the Conservatives are near-death.