This is probably going to be a classic Rural Highland contest between the Lib Dems and an Independent of unpredictable popularity. If the top two are the Lib Dems and A.N. Other Party, the Lib Dems will walk it.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) 25th of June 2026
A by-election a week after a more important by-election covering the same area? Oh that’s a recipe for miserable turnout. SNP still favoured regardless? Probably.
SP26: Patterns of Party Popularity
It’s all well and good looking at the headline figures, but you’ve got to get right down into the thick of support and swings – in both votes – across constituencies to really understand what happened last week.
BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting
An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data than the BBC?
SP26: Battlegrounds Old and New
Although Holyrood’s partly proportional system makes marginal seats less important, they’re still an interesting and integral part of what makes elections exciting. Here’s how the marginals changed last week.
SP26: The Headline Results
A dull campaign has nonetheless sent shockwaves through Scottish politics, with a whole new party in parliament and big gains for the smaller established parties at the expense of those, formerly, larger.
SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection
The polls are now open, and all that’s left for parties to do is get their own supporters to actually cast their ballot. In the meantime, here’s a run through the most likely outcomes.
Poll Analysis: Survation MRP 20th of April – 5th of May 2026
A third major poll release on the eve of poll continues great news for the Greens, as well as suggesting a relatively strong SNP result. It’s the strongest of the bunch for the Conservatives but weakest for the Lib Dems too.
Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 25th of April – 5th of May 2026
Final day polling is coming thick and fast, none of it good for Labour. The probable best of the bunch for the SNP still has them short of a majority, but another strong result for the Greens.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 1st – 4th of May 2026
The final Ipsos poll of the campaign is good news for Reform, the Greens and Lib Dems, but bad for the SNP, Labour and Conservatives; nonetheless, there’d be a clear Pro-Independence majority.
