Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Does anyone remember that local councils have by-elections? With the Scottish Parliament election having taken up all the time and oxygen for the past few months, these smaller contests have fallen off the radar. Five months after the last council by-election in January, we’re due one for Aberdeen’s George Street and Harbour ward following the resignation of Lib Dem councillor Desmond Buchanan.
Buchanan had been elected (under the surname Bouse, which is how he’ll show up data from the time) for the first time in 2022. He may have been something of an unexpected victor, given the character of the ward and the other parties in contention. He has since moved away from the area (he contested the Ayr constituency for the Lib Dems) and thus decided to resign his seat
Ward Details
George Street and Harbour is one of 13 wards in Aberdeen, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. This ward covers much of the centre of Aberdeen, obviously including the eponymous George Street, but also Pittodrie and an area my map is sure is called Hanover. It’s also got Footdee which, separated by industrial and harbour facilities, is almost still a little village of its own. It had a very slight increase in size ahead of the 2017 election, which was when Pittodrie was added, but that was sufficient to add an extra councillor to the area.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Aberdeen Central constituency which has been held by the SNP since 2011. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Aberdeen South constituency that the SNP held in 2024 – this will be important later in this piece. It was only moved into that constituency ahead of that election however, having previously been within Aberdeen North which had been SNP since 2015 and before that Labour.
Electoral History
Councillors Elected
In the ward’s original form, its three seats split between the SNP, Labour and Lib Dems at the inaugural STV election in 2007. When the Lib Dems collapsed in 2012, Labour were able to narrowly secure a double, despite their original councillor having been suspended, resigned, and re-contested as an Independent. The SNP’s councillor resigned in 2015, triggering a by-election the party easily won.
The expanded number of seat available in 2017 did not help Labour repeat their previous performance, with the SNP instead taking the double, leaving one each to Labour and the resurgent Conservatives. The latter two parties immediately formed a coalition, leading to the formal suspension of every Aberdeen Labour councillor from the party. With controversy surrounding the Conservative councillor, he dropped his re-election bid in 2022, and the Lib Dems gained his seat, whilst every incumbent held on.
Vote Shares
Looking at the voting pattern over the period, and we can see the SNP and Labour were neck and neck in the first two elections. In 2012 in particular, note how Labour don’t even have a third of the vote yet managed two councillors. They managed a very, very even split between their two candidates which kept the lower placed one 30 votes ahead of the Lib Dems at the final stage. Had their vote been more lopsided, the Lib Dems would have held on despite their crashing vote. As you’d expect given the date, the 2015 by-election held alongside the UK General Election went to the SNP on a first preference majority.
In 2017, we see the top two begin to lose ground, albeit for the SNP that’s still far better than their pre-referendum result. The Greens had already overtaken the Lib Dems at the by-election, and widened the gap at this point. Whilst Green and Lib Dem gains were modest compared to the Conservatives in 2017, come 2022 they would push the latter into fifth place. Transfers are the name of the game though so despite a maintained Green lead over the Lib Dems, the elimination of the Conservatives pushed the Lib Dems over the line.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Michael Hutchison
🟡SNP: Dell Henrickson
🔴Labour: Sandra MacDonald
🟠Lib Dem: Desmond Bouse
Change vs 2017: +1 Lib Dem, -1 Conservative
Turnout: 28.3%
Electorate: 12378
Valid: 3427 (97.8%)
Spoiled: 78 (2.2%)
Quota: 686
Candidates
🟠Lib Dem: Desmond Bouse
⚪Independent: Mac Ahmed Chaudry
🟡SNP: Michael Hutchison
🟡SNP: Dell Henrickson
🟢Green: Guy Ingerson
🔴Labour: Sandra MacDonald
🔵Conservative: Shane Painter
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election Details
Candidates
A relatively jam-packed ballot for this one, with the Holyrood 6 plus an Independent, the Alliance to Liberate Scotland (who are perhaps now going to sub in for the deceased Alba Party), and what I think is the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, albeit under the title of “Independent Trade Unionist and Socialist Candidate”.
Just a couple of returning faces that I can make out here, with the Green and ALS candidate having stood on their respective lists for Holyrood. Reform’s Jordan Brown got close to doing so as he was originally given as their Aberdeen Central candidate, but then publicly said he wasn’t, and someone else was ultimately nominated. Well, he’s definitely nominated this time!
Independent: Aamir Azeem
TUSC?: Fred Bayer
Reform UK: Jordan Brown
Lib Dem: Luke Eveling
Green: Charlotte Horne
SNP: Leon Marwick
Labour: Edward Obi
Conservative: Marco Oosthuizen
Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Konrad Rekas
Analysis
Before we get into the analysis we need to talk about the massive, Westminster-shaped spanner in the words: the Aberdeen South by-election. That will be held the previous week, on the 18th of June. When you consider that this ward already had abysmal turnout in 2022, and by-elections are always worse, I want you to imagine how few people are going to want to go and vote two weeks in a row, never mind how many are going to get confused, or turn up for Westminster, get turned away for lack of ID, then not bother the next week. I hope I am wrong, but I would be unsurprised by a turnout of 15% or below.
Anyway, that aside, the SNP would be the clear favourites here. That matters because the local SNP-Lib Dem administration only had a single seat lead before this by-election cropped up, so anyone other than those parties winning this could affect control. Although much reduced, the SNP were still easily the largest party on the list vote for Aberdeen Central a few weeks ago.
The Greens were second placed, despite the local drama and chaos surrounding them, so even though it will be their voters least likely to turn out, they should still be a significant source of second preferences for the SNP. They will however hope to see at least some improvement in their own right though, as a necessary step to finally cracking the Aberdeen City Council nut next year. That may be easier said than done as the local branch remains in convulsions after the de-selection as lead North East list candidate and subsequent exit from the party of 2022’s local candidate, Guy Ingerson.
How well Labour, Reform and the Lib Dems do is also going to be an important indicator of the state of play next year. It’s conceivable that we could have five parties competing for the four available seats next year, and the SNP may not be entirely out of contention for holding two. Competition here could therefore be especially fierce, but at the same time, perhaps the by-election will show that Labour for example are at risk of being completely removed from contention.
If this by-election was before rather than after the Aberdeen South Westminster one, I’d say it’d also be worth watching the Conservatives, for a sense of how they are doing in their weakest part of that constituency. As it isn’t, there’s less to be gleaned from their result, but it’ll nonetheless likely show up a very substantial difference with the Westminster result.
Prediction
Likely SNP.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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