Contents and Notes

Notes on 2019 Notional Results

Vote share changes are versus 2019 notionals compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association. Calculations for Scotland done by Professor David Denver, those for Northern Ireland by Nicholas Whyte.

Due to the fact neither the Greens nor the Brexit Party (now known as Reform UK) stood in every constituency, unlike the four Westminster parties their notional vote shares do not necessarily reflect their “true” 2019 results. This is because within each new constituency, only the chunk of it coming from a constituency (or constituencies) that these parties contested will have any votes associated with them.

Aberdeen North

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Kirsty Blackman (HOLD)
Majority: 1760 (4.2%)
Electorate: 75925
Turnout: 55.6%
Valid: 42095 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 115 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Kirsty Blackman
🔴Labour: Lynn Thomson
🔵Conservative: Gillian Tebberen
🟠Lib Dem: Desmond Bouse
🟢Green: Esme Houston
Alba: Charlie Abel
🟣Reform UK: Kenneth Leggat
🟤Family: Dawn Smith
🟤TUSC: Lucas Grant

2024 Result

Aberdeen South

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Stephen Flynn (HOLD)
Majority: 3758 (8.1%)
Electorate: 77328
Turnout: 60.2%
Valid: 46523 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 178 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Stephen Flynn
🔴Labour: Taqueer Malik
🔵Conservative: John Wheeler
🟠Lib Dem: Jeff Goodhall
🟢Green: Guy Ingerson
🟣Reform UK: Michael Pearce
🟤Family: Graeme Craib
⚪Independent: Sophie Molly

2024 Result

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Seamus Logan (GAIN from Conservative)
Majority: 942 (2.5%)
Electorate: 70058
Turnout: 54.8%
Valid: 38188 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 170 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Seamus Logan
🔴Labour: Andy Brown*
🔵Conservative: Douglas Ross
🟠Lib Dem: Ian Bailey
🟣Reform UK: Jo Hart

* After nominations closed, Labour withdrew support from Andy Brown due to comments relating to Russia. 

2024 Result

Airdrie and Shotts

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Kenneth Stevenson (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 7547 (20.6%)
Electorate: 70199
Turnout: 52.4%
Valid: 36666 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 95 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Anum Qaisar
🔴Labour: Kenneth Stevenson
🔵Conservative: Alexandra Herdman
🟠Lib Dem: Lewis Younie
Alba: Josh Robertson
🟣Reform UK: David Hall
🟤British Unionist: John Jo Leckie

2024 Result

Alloa and Grangemouth

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Brian Leishman (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 6122 (14.9%)
Electorate: 70680
Turnout: 58.4%
Valid: 41201 (99.8%)
Spoiled: 74 (0.2%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: John Nicolson
🔴Labour: Brian Leishman
🔵Conservative: Rachel Nunn
🟠Lib Dem: Adrian May
🟢Green: Nariese Whyte
Alba: Kenny MacAskill
🟣Reform UK: Richard Fairley
🟤Workers: Tom Flanagan
⚪Independent: Eva Comrie

2024 Result

Angus and Perthshire Glens

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Dave Doogan (HOLD)
Majority: 4870 (10.3%)
Electorate: 76668
Turnout: 62.0%
Valid: 47348 (99.5%)
Spoiled: 224 (0.5%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Dave Doogan
🔴Labour: Elizabeth Carr-Ellis
🔵Conservative: Stephen Kerr
🟠Lib Dem: Claire McLaren
🟣Reform UK: Kenneth Morton
⚪Independent: Dan Peña

2024 Result

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins (HOLD)
Majority: 859 (1.9%)
Electorate: 76149
Turnout: 58.1%
Valid: 44117 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 161 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins
🔴Labour: Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank
🔵Conservative: Richard Brooks
🟠Lib Dem: David Evans
Alba: Ghazi Khan
🟣Reform UK: Gwen Wood
🟤Sovereignty: Moira Brown

2024 Result

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Brendan O’Hara (HOLD)
Majority: 6232 (13.9%)
Electorate: 71756
Turnout: 62.8%
Valid: 44862 (99.5%)
Spoiled: 216 (0.5%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Brendan O’Hara
🔴Labour: Hamish Maxwell
🔵Conservative: Amanda Hampsey
🟠Lib Dem: Alan Reid
🟣Reform UK: Melanie Hurst
⚪Independent: Tommy MacPherson

2024 Result

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Elaine Stewart (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 4154 (10.1%)
Electorate: 70340
Turnout: 58.4%
Valid: 40936 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 120 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Allan Dorans
🔴Labour: Elaine Stewart
🔵Conservative: Martin Dowey
🟠Lib Dem: Paul Kennedy
🟢Green: Korin Vallance
Alba: Corri Wilson
🟣Reform UK: Andrew Russell

2024 Result

Bathgate and Linlithgow

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Kirsteen Sullivan (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 8323 (19.8%)
Electorate: 72185
Turnout: 58.4%
Valid: 42065 (99.8%)
Spoiled: 92 (0.2%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Martyn Dey
🔴Labour: Kirsteen Sullivan
🔵Conservative: Lynn Munro
🟠Lib Dem: Sally Pattle
🟢Green: Simon Jay
🟣Reform UK: Jamie McNamee
🟤Independence for Scotland: John Hannah
⚪Independent: Stuart McArthur

2024 Result

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Key Details

Winner:
🔵Conservative: John Lamont (HOLD)
Majority: 6599 (14.2%)
Electorate: 76438
Turnout: 61.1%
Valid: 46558 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 138 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: David Wilson
🔴Labour: Caitlin Stott
🔵Conservative: John Lamont
🟠Lib Dem: Ray Georgeson
🟢Green: Neil MacKinnon
🟣Reform UK: Carolyn Grant
🟤Family: Hamish Goldie
⚪Independent: Ellie Merton

2024 Result

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Key Details

Winner:
🟠Lib Dem: Jamie Stone (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 10489 (22.8%)
Electorate: 74627
Turnout: 61.9%
Valid: 46048 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 122 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Lucy Beattie
🔴Labour: Eva Kestner
🔵Conservative: Fiona Fawcett
🟠Lib Dem: Jamie Stone
🟢Green: Anne Thomas
Alba: Steve Chisholm
🟣Reform UK: Sandra Skinner

2024 Result

Central Ayrshire

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Alan Gemmell (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 6869 (16.6%)
Electorate: 69413
Turnout: 59.8%
Valid: 41419 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 123 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Annie McIndoe
🔴Labour: Alan Gemmell
🔵Conservative: David Rocks
🟠Lib Dem: Elaine Ford
🟢Green: Tom Kerr
🟣Reform UK: Kevin Blades
🟤Social Democratic: Allan Macmillan
🟤Socialist Labour: Louise McDaid

2024 Result

Coatbridge and Bellshill

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Frank McNally (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 6344 (16.4%)
Electorate: 72667
Turnout: 53.5%
Valid: 38731 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 115 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Steven Bonnar
🔴Labour: Frank McNally
🔵Conservative: Christina Sandhu
🟠Lib Dem: Emma Farthing
🟢Green: Patrick McAleer
🟣Reform UK: Fionna McRae
🟤Family: Leo Lanahan
🟤Communist Party of Britain: Drew Gilchrist

2024 Result

Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Melanie Ward (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 7248 (17.8%)
Electorate: 71845
Turnout: 57.0%
Valid: 40814 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 106 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Lesley Blackhouse
🔴Labour: Melanie Ward
🔵Conservative: Jonathan Gray
🟠Lib Dem: Fraser Graham
🟢Green: Mags Hall
Alba: Neale Hanvey
🟣Reform UK: Sonia Davidson
🟤Libertarian: Calum Paul

2024 Result

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Katrina Murray (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 4144 (10.1%)
Electorate: 70350
Turnout: 58.5%
Valid: 40976 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 170 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Stuart McDonald
🔴Labour: Katrina Murray
🔵Conservative: Satbir Kaur Gill
🟠Lib Dem: Adam Harley
🟢Green: Anne McCrossan
🟣Reform UK: Billy Ross

2024 Result

Dumfries and Galloway

Key Details

Winner:
🔵Conservative: John Cooper (HOLD)
Majority: 930 (2.0%)
Electorate: 78541
Turnout: 58.5%
Valid: 45775 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 162 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Tracey Little
🔴Labour: James Wallace
🔵Conservative: John Cooper
🟠Lib Dem: Iain McDonald
🟢Green: Laura Moodie
🟣Reform UK: Charles Keal
🟤Heritage: David Griffiths

2024 Result

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Key Details

Winner:
🔵Conservative: David Mundell (HOLD)
Majority: 4242 (9.6%)
Electorate: 71900
Turnout: 61.7%
Valid: 44214 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 133 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Kim Marshall
🔴Labour: Daniel Coleman
🔵Conservative: David Mundell
🟠Lib Dem: Drummond Begg
🟢Green: Dominic Ashmole
🟣Reform UK: David Kirkwood
🟤Family: Gareth Kirk

2024 Result

Dundee Central

Key Details

Winner:
🟡SNP: Chris Law (HOLD)
Majority: 675 (1.7%)
Electorate: 74221
Turnout: 52.5%
Valid: 38848 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 153 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Chris Law
🔴Labour: Richard McCready
🔵Conservative: Emma Farquhar
🟠Lib Dem: Daniel Coleman
Alba: Alan Ross
🟣Reform UK: Vicky McCann
🟤Family: Susan Ettle
🟤TUSC: Jim McFarlane
🟤Workers: Raymond Mennie
⚪Independent: Niko Omilana

2024 Result

Dunfermline and Dollar

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Graeme Downie (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 8241 (18.5%)
Electorate: 72824
Turnout: 61.3%
Valid: 44537 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 140 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Naz Anis-Miah
🔴Labour: Graeme Downie
🔵Conservative: Thomas Heald
🟠Lib Dem: Lauren Buchanan-Quigley
🟢Green: Ryan Blackadder
🟣Reform UK: Udo Van den Brock
🟤Family: Danny Smith
⚪Independent: Graham Hadley
⚪Independent: George Morton

2024 Result

East Kilbride and Strathaven

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Joani Reid (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 9057 (19.4%)
Electorate: 76414
Turnout: 61.3%
Valid: 46707 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 131 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Grant Costello
🔴Labour: Joani Reid
🔵Conservative: Ross Lambie
🟠Lib Dem: Aisha Mir
🟢Green: Anne McGuinness
🟣Reform UK: David Mills
🟤Family: David Richardson
🟤UKIP: Donald Mackay

2024 Result

East Renfrewshire

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Blair McDougall (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 8421 (16.8%)
Electorate: 74626
Turnout: 67.5%
Valid: 50227 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 141 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Kirsten Oswald
🔴Labour: Blair McDougall
🔵Conservative: Sandesh Gulhane
🟠Lib Dem: Alan Grant
🟢Green: Karen Sharkey
🟣Reform UK: Matt Alexander
🟤Family: Maria Reid
🟤Liberal: Allan Steele
🟤Independence for Scotland: Colette Walker

2024 Result

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Chris Murray (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 3715 (8.2%)
Electorate: 76188
Turnout: 60.1%
Valid: 45575 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 206 (0.4%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Tommy Sheppard
🔴Labour: Chris Murray
🔵Conservative: Marie-Clair Munro
🟠Lib Dem: Charles Dundas
🟢Green: Amanda Grimm
🟣Reform UK: Derek Winton
⚪Independent: Jane Gould

2024 Result

Edinburgh North and Leith

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Tracy Gilbert (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 7268 (14.7%)
Electorate: 75925
Turnout: 63.3%
Valid: 49475 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 173 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Deidre Brock
🔴Labour: Tracy Gilbert
🔵Conservative: Joanna Mowat
🟠Lib Dem: Mike Andersen
🟢Green: Kayleigh O’Neill
🟣Reform UK: Alan Melville
🟤Family: Niel Deepnarain
🟤Communist: Richard Shillcock
🟤Socialist Labour: David Jacobsen
⚪Independent: Caroline Waterloo

2024 Result

Edinburgh South

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Ian Murray (HOLD)
Majority: 17251 (36.8%)
Electorate: 70838
Turnout: 66.3%
Valid: 46826 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 125 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Simita Kumar
🔴Labour: Ian Murray
🔵Conservative: Christopher Cowdy
🟠Lib Dem: Andy Williamson
🟢Green: Jo Phillips
Alba: Lynne Lyon
🟣Reform UK: Cameron Rose
🟤Family: Phil Holden
⚪Independent: Alex Martin
⚪Independent: Mark Rowbotham

2024 Result

Edinburgh South West

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Scott Arthur (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 6217 (13.6%)
Electorate: 73784
Turnout: 62.1%
Valid: 45664 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 147 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Joanna Cherry
🔴Labour: Scott Arthur
🔵Conservative: Sue Webber
🟠Lib Dem: Bruce Wilson
🟢Green: Dan Heap
🟣Reform UK: Ian Harper
🟤Family: Richard Lucas
⚪Independent: Mark Wilkinson

2024 Result

Edinburgh West

Key Details

Winner:
🟠Lib Dem: Christine Jardine (HOLD)
Majority: 16470 (31.4%)
Electorate: 76490
Turnout: 68.8%
Valid: 52471 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 137 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Euan Hyslop
🔴Labour: Michael Davidson
🔵Conservative: Alastair Shields
🟠Lib Dem: Christine Jardine
🟢Green: James Puchowski
🟣Reform UK: Otto Inglis
🟤Liberterian: Tam Laird
⚪Independent: David Henry
⚪Independent: Nick Hornig

2024 Result

Falkirk

Key Details

Winner:
🔴Labour: Euan Stainbank (GAIN from SNP)
Majority: 4996 (11.7%)
Electorate: 73584
Turnout: 58.1%
Valid: 42625 (99.7%)
Spoiled: 131 (0.3%)

2024 Candidates

🟡SNP: Toni Giugliano
🔴Labour: Euan Stainbank
🔵Conservative: James Bundy
🟠Lib Dem: Tim McKay
🟢Green: Rachel Kidd
Alba: Zohaib Arshad
🟣Reform UK: Keith Barrow
⚪Independent: Mark Tunnicliff

2024 Result