Aberdeen

A by-election a week after a more important by-election covering the same area? Oh that’s a recipe for miserable turnout. SNP still favoured regardless? Probably.

The first by-election of 2023 gives the SNP a spook to start the year, recording their worst share yet in this ward, as a Labour surge into second place on first preferences set the stage for an easy win following transfer rounds.

The first by-election of 2023 looks most favourable to the SNP, but recent patterns and polling mean a Labour resurgence shouldn’t be written off.

A foregone conclusion for the SNP, perhaps the most interesting part of this by-election is that it raises the possibility Labour may lose their seat here in 2022, allowing the return of the 2012-17 Independent councillor Andy Finlayson.

Of the three by-elections that were due on the 5th, we’re down to just this one in Aberdeen. Following an SNP Councillor’s election as MP, they should easily hold their seat.

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