Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
The second of two by-elections up on the 25th of June takes us up into the Highlands. Poor Highland has ended up with an absurd number of by-elections this term, though the small upside is their elections team do the best job in the whole country at reporting on and publishing results. That means I always go into these with confidence I will be able to get what I need out of them promptly, which is lovely.
East Sutherland and Edderton will be going to a vote to replace Jim McGillivray, who has represented the area since 2007. He’s stood down for health reasons, telling a local paper that he had very much hoped to make it the full 20 years but didn’t quite have it in him, which is a real shame.
Ward Details
East Sutherland and Edderton is one of 21 wards in Highland, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. This is one of two wards that covers the massive historic county of Sutherland. In a Scottish context, dubbing one of our northern extremes the Southern Land might seem a bit odd, but for the old Norse, well, it makes rather more sense. Despite the quite vast rural expanse, almost all of the population here lives along the coast between Helmsdale, Brora, Golspie and the county town of Dornoch. The “and Edderton” reflects the fact that village is not in Sutherland, instead being part of Ross. Boundaries here have been untouched since STV was brought in.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency which the Lib Dems have just regained from the SNP after having lost it in 2011. At the UK Parliament it’s within the similar Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross constituency that the Lib Dems have held consistently barring an SNP interlude between 2015 and 2017.
Electoral History
Councillors Elected
McGillivray has been the only constant across this ward’s history, with everyone else dipping in and out of representation. In 2007, he was elected alongside Labour and the Lib Dems, and when the latter lost their seat in 2012, it was the SNP who subbed in. In 2017 they swapped back, and Labour finally lost their seat in 2022 after the retirement of their incumbent councillor: nobody even stood in her place.
Vote Shares
Looking at the voting pattern over the period, and we can see the Lib Dems and Labour started well out in front in party terms. McGillivray placed slightly behind the SNP but would prove much more transfer friendly over the process, ultimately turning his 29 vote deficit into a lead of 170. In 2012, the Lib Dems crashed spectacularly here whilst Labour had a no less spectacular gain in votes. With McGillivray more comfortably placed this time the SNP were competing with different Independent, Richard Gale, for the final seat, beating him by around 22 votes after transfers.
That wasn’t to be the last of Gale however as he became the Lib Dem that defeated the SNP in 2017. McGillivray once again had to come from behind the SNP to secure victory, to the tune of 79 votes this time. Finally, in 2022, the Lib Dems appear to have soaked up much of the former Labour vote giving them a very comfortable lead, and with the SNP also making quota for the first time, it was down to their transfers to decide the final councillor. Naturally as a sitting Independent McGillivray was much more popular than the Conservatives, handing him his fourth win.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
đźź Lib Dem: Richard Gale
🟡SNP: Leslie-Anne Niven
⚪Independent: Jim McGillivray
Change vs 2017: +1 SNP, -1 Labour
Electorate: 6446
Turnout: 50.5%
Valid: 3214 (98.8%)
Spoiled: 39 (1.2%)
Quota: 804
Candidates
🔵Conservative: Max Bannerman
🟤Libertarian: Harry Christian
đźź Lib Dem: Richard Gale
⚪Independent: Jim McGillivray
🟡SNP: Leslie-Anne Niven
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election Details
Candidates
As has often been the case in rural wards, we’re missing out on the two most urban of Scotland’s political parties: no Green, and no return for Labour either. The only other name on the ballot, outwith the other four Holyrood parties, is an Independent.
We’ve got a couple of returning faces here. The Conservative stood in this ward back in 2017, though she didn’t appear on a Highland ballot again until the 2024 Tain and Easter Ross by-election. The SNP’s candidate was also seen at a 2024 by-election, in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.Â
Reform UK: Jay Avrey
Lib Dem: Eric de Venny
SNP: Rebecca Machin
Independent: John Murray
Conservative: Eva Short
Analysis
This isn’t the most exciting analysis I know, but it’s pretty simple: either the Lib Dems or the Independent will win this. I’ve long since learned my lesson about disregarding Independents anywhere in the Highlands, and certainly never would in the rural portions. However as Independents are very unknown quantities for Glaswegian election nerds, “win 5% and go nowhere” could be just as likely, I don’t know!
I do know it’ll go Lib Dem if it goes to a party. They’re fresh off winning the Holyrood seat covering the area, which itself comes off the back of digging in to their Westminster seat. In 2022, they’d have beaten the SNP by a whopping 27.7% in a single seat contest. Especially given the residual Conservative vote will transfer Lib Dem more readily, and I doubt the Reform votes will be SNP favourable either, and SNP voters will certainly prefer the Lib Dems over the other parties, they should have it in the bag if it’s a head-to-head with any other party.
Prediction
Lib Dem – Independent Tossup.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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