Highland

This is probably going to be a classic Rural Highland contest between the Lib Dems and an Independent of unpredictable popularity. If the top two are the Lib Dems and A.N. Other Party, the Lib Dems will walk it.

An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform’s support varies across the country.

The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.

A ward that didn’t even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.

A comfortable Lib Dem victory in an area they’re on the hunt for a Holyrood win bodes well for them, whilst Reform fully cannibalise the Conservatives.

A ward that went uncontested in 2022 finally gets to have a vote, with an Independent always the favoured option in the Highlands but lack of data means I’m unwilling to write off the Lib Dems.

A third by-election in the same ward this term means 100% turnover in the councillors elected in 2022, and may lead to 100% Independent representation.

Skye loves an Independent and this by-election was no different, though the victor saw a strong Lib Dem challenge.

A typically strong showing for Highland Independents leads one to victory over a slightly rebounding, but not fully recovered SNP, whilst the Lib Dems experience a surprising slide and we see how far Reform have come in the past 9 months.

“The Isle of Mists” indeed: it’s hard to get a clear view of what might happen here, with all of the SNP, Lib Dems and Independents potentially in the running.