Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Highland Council is giving us two very distinct kinds of by-election on the same day, one bringing voters back to the polls for a fourth time this council term, and the other for the first. This is the latter. In 2022, the SNP’s surprising failure to find a candidate for the Caol and Mallaig ward and a shock lack of Independents meant that there were only three names on the ballot paper. With three seats to fill, all three became councillors without the voters needing to worry their pretty little heads about anything so gauche as voting for them.
That was of course not the fault of the councillors in question, least of all the Greens’ Andrew Baldrey. Having never expected to be elected in the first place, he nonetheless gave it a good shot (I believe he’d previously been a councillor down south for a while), whilst the local branch expressed their mix of delight and frustration to end up with an additional councillor in that manner. Baldrey’s resignation, which I understand to be for health reasons, means over three years later voters will finally get some real say over who represents this ward.
Ward Details
Caol and Mallaig is one of 21 wards in the Highland council area, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. It covers the northern half of the Lochaber area, including the urbanised Caol and Corpach area just to the north of Fort William. The other major settlement is the titular Mallaig, a port town that serves as the end of the famously picturesque West Highland Line and a major ferry hub towards the Western Isles. Also included area mainland villages like Spean Bridge, Glenfinnan and Arisaig, and the delightfully named Small Isles: Canna, Eigg, Muck and Rùm. There haven’t been any boundary changes here since it was created.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is within the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch constituency which the SNP won in 2011. They’d also held the prior Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber seat from creation. For the UK Parliament it’s in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire which the Lib Dems won last year. The SNP had held the previous Ross, Skye and Lochaber since 2015, when the gained it from former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy.
Electoral History
Despite the advent of STV in 2007 this ward was resolutely Independent for the first two elections, returning the same trio: Bill Clark, Allan Henderson and Eddie hunter. Clark would go on to join the SNP shortly after the 2012 election however. In 2014, Hunter resigned his seat and was replaced by another Independent, Ben Thompson.
Only in 2017 did elected party representation come, as whilst Clark stood down, the SNP nonetheless effectively held his seat in the form of Billy MacLachlan. Sadly, MacLachlan wasn’t even a year into the job when he died in January 2018, and Lib Dem Denis Rixson won the resulting by-election – the last time this ward got to vote. Thompson stood down at the start of November 2021, but as that was carefully timed to be within 6 months of the 2022 elections, no by-election was held. With no Independents or SNP for the first time in 2022, the seats went one each to the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens.
Looking at the voting pattern over the period, we don’t actually learn a lot from the beginning because it says “those Independents that were elected were pretty popular.” The most recent results in 2017 and 2018 suggest a strong SNP share in the area, as well as a surge for the Lib Dems at the last election. What can I say, this isn’t an exciting ward if you want close combat between multiple parties over several years.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🟢Green: Andrew Baldrey
🟠Lib Dem: John Grafton
🔵Conservative: Liz Saggers
Change vs 2017: +1 Green, +1 Lib Dem, +1 Conservative, -2 Independent (Allan Henderson and Ben Thompson retired), -1 SNP
Electorate: N/A
Turnout: N/A
Valid: N/A
Spoiled: N/A
Quota: N/A
Candidates
🟢Green: Andrew Baldrey
🟠Lib Dem: John Grafton
🔵Conservative: Liz Saggers
As the number of candidates nominated in Caol and Mallaig was equal to the number of seats available, all candidates were elected unopposed and no vote was held.
Based on 2017 results, had the SNP contested this ward, the most likely outcome is they would have elected a councillor at the Greens’ expense. Had incumbent Independent Allan Henderson re-stood he’d have done likewise, and had both the SNP and Henderson re-stood, it’s likely the Conservatives would also have failed to win a seat.
Although Lib Dem results in 2017 were comparatively weak, they did well at a 2018 by-election. Given their performance in the other Lochaber ward and that the other 2017 Independent, Ben Thompson, had resigned a few months before the election, of the three elected councillors theirs is the only one that could be reasonably certain of having been elected at a contested vote.
As no vote was held, the candidates are listed as elected in alphabetical order.
By-Election
Candidates
Where were all of these candidates in 2022? There’s a comparatively mighty 8 candidates on the paper this time around, with four of the Holyrood parties, Reform, and three Independents. Notably, the Greens aren’t present despite being the vacating party, emphasising their councillor really had been intended as a paper candidate in 2022.
We’ve got a few returning candidates here, most notably the Reform candidate who I am assuming is the same Ryan Forbes who stood for the Conservatives in Inverness West in 2022 and the Inverness South by-election last year. The still-Conservative candidate also stood in 2022 and a by-election last year for Inverness Central. Labour’s candidate is something of a local perennial as he stood in Aird and Loch Ness in 2022, the 2023 Tain and Easter Ross by-election, and Cromarty Firth last year.
⚪Independent: Sammy Cameron
🟠Lib Dem: Isla Campbell
🟣Reform UK: Ryan Forbes
⚪Independent: Allan Henderson
🔵Conservative: Donald MacKenzie
🔴Labour: Michael Perera
⚪Independent: Matthew Prosser
🟡SNP: Aaron Taylor
Analysis
Since we don’t have any 2022 data, we’ve got very little to go on but vibes. The vibes tell me two things. One, this is the Highlands: assume an Independent is a likely winner, also, did you see how it took until 2017 for this ward to elect a party councillor? There are three to choose from, so voters are spoiled for choice on that front.
Two, this is former Kennedy territory and the Lib Dems really want it back. They did indeed achieve that at Westminster last year, and both their 2022 and 2024 by-election in the other Lochaber ward were incredibly strong. In other words, I think it’s going to be an Independent or the Lib Dems. I don’t think anyone else has a chance.
Update: Somehow on my initial pass at this I failed to notice that former councillor Allan Henderson is on the ballot, who therefore may be the most likely Independent to win. Whilst, of course, circumstances change, I can’t help but feel a little annoyed on behalf of the good people of Caol and Mallaig at this situation. Had Henderson re-contested the ward in 2022, it would have been a contested election, and they would have had the opportunity to actually vote at the full election! My gut feel is that the Greens would have lost out in the scenario, thus precluding the need for this by-election, but it’s not impossible transfers went against the Conservatives in this part of the country.
Prediction
Independent-Lib Dem Tossup.
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