Background
The last Scottish by-elections of 2025 were an oddly coincidental case of re-runs in wards that already had one in November last year. In Highland’s Fort William and Arnamurchan, SNP councillor Sarah Fanet was standing down as she is moving back to her homeland of France, from which it is understandably difficult to commute to the north of Scotland for the odd council meeting. Fanet was first elected in a December 2021 by-election, so she hadn’t quite completed the equivalent of a full term given the 5-year period of Scottish local elections.
Given the dominance of the Lib Dems in this part of the country, my preview had this marked as an easy win for them. I did note though that they probably wouldn’t do as well as last year, when they had a Conservative-turned-Independent-turned-Conservative-turned-Independent-finally-turned-Lib Dem former councillor for the ward on the ballot paper.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Lib Dem: Matthew Prosser
Change vs 2024 (notional): Lib Dem Hold
Change vs 2022 (notional): Lib Dem Hold
Change vs vacating: Lib Dem Gain from SNP
Turnout: 25.9% (-1.4 / -19.0)
Electorate: 8888
Valid: 2288 (99.3%)
Spoiled: 17 (0.7%)
Quota: 1145
3 Continuing Councillors:
Independent: Thomas MacLennan
Green: Kate WillisLib Dem: Andrew Baxter
Candidates
Green: Ollie Crookwood
Reform UK: Allan MacDonald
SNP: Norrie MacLean
Conservative: Julia Peill
Labour: Michael PereraLib Dem: Matthew Prosser
First Preferences
Swing vs 2024 By-Election
Swing vs 2022
Note: The Libertarians won 0.6% in the 2024 by-election, and Independent Thomas MacLennan 9.3% in 2022.
First Preference History
This one I got spot on. Sure enough, the Lib Dems started with the kind of lead over the SNP that’s extremely unlikely to be closed by transfers, but it was very substantially down on last year. Better than their 2022 result mind you, and enough to comfortably elect two councillors at a full election. In the absence of Andrew Baxter’s personal vote, the party settled back into a more “natural” local share.
Where did those votes go instead? Well, to almost everyone else. The SNP enjoyed a small recovery, not enough to bring them back above 30%, but they’ll presumably take any signs of growth at the moment. Reform were the only new party on the ballot this time, having failed to find a candidate here last year, and immediately pulled into third, if only by 4 votes over the Greens. That’s a creditable result, but a timely reminder that they aren’t surging up to and beyond 20% in every part of the country.
For their part, the Greens will be glad to see their support back up to almost exactly where it was in 2022, especially given their sitting councillor and the relatively low propensity for Green voters to turn out at by-elections. They’d still want a good few more first preferences than this to be comfortable, as a relatively even split between two SNP candidates and a re-standing Independent could do them in, but assuming the second came below them after transfers the Greens would have pipped Reform by about 75 votes (or 3.3%) for the final seat had all four been up.
The Conservatives also bucked recent trends to increase their support, though I’d refer back to the fact that last year’s winning Lib Dem had been a Conservative candidate and councillor in the past. That’ll have exaggerated their losses last year, and this is still quite weak compared to their result back in 2017. Lastly, it speaks to how dire Labour’s circumstances are that even with plenty of 2024 Lib Dem votes going spare, they ended up the only party to lose support compared to last year. You might not expect them to do well here, but they’ve had a councillor in this ward before!
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
TCP swing vs 2024 By-Election
TCP swing vs 2022
It’s proven very unlikely over the years for a double-digit lead to be overturned on transfers, especially not in the SNP’s favour against the Lib Dems or Labour. As such it’s no surprise here that the Lib Dems cruised to an ultimately easy victory. Sure, it’s no stonking first preference win like last year, but they did strengthen their advantage over the SNP compared to 2022.
Just to emphasise that earlier point about Reform’s support not being in any way evenly distributed nationally, despite placing third overall they would be beaten in a head-to-head matchup with every other party. Obviously the Lib Dems and SNP would beat them (by about 50% and 28% respectively), but so too would the Greens (by 13%), Conservatives (by 6%), and even Labour (by 6%).Â
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Unlike the Lib Dem steamrollering last year, the map of polling district results shows some differences across the ward. Broadly speaking, the SNP led in the Ardnamurchan and Morvern areas, whilst the Lib Dems led in the rural portions around Fort William. The town itself was split, with the south leaning Lib Dem, the centre SNP, and the north returning a completely even split.
Despite that split, that was actually the SNP’s strongest area, whereas the Lib Dems peaked around Kinlochleven and North Ballachulish. For the other parties, Reform had their best score in central Fort William, both the Greens and Labour in Morvern, and the Conservatives were so strong in Ardnamurchan they actually beat the Lib Dems.
Second Preferences
Direct second preference flows were quite fractured for the Lib Dems, with the Conservatives pulling the plurality of these. As usual, SNP voters were most positive towards the Greens, but unusually Green voters very narrowly (by just one vote) preferred the Lib Dems here. Much less surprising was the fact both Conservative and Labour voters were keen on the Lib Dems, or that Reform’s base were most likely to transfer to the Conservatives, though admittedly not much more so than they were the Lib Dems.
That’s 2025 done and dusted in terms of Scottish elections, thankfully. We’ve got a couple coming up at the end of January but that’s so far ahead they don’t yet have previews. In between Christmas and New Year I’ll be publishing the usual BBS Annual Reviews, and that will truly be a wrap on the year.
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