Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
The more interesting half of the Dundee double bill takes us to the Strathmartine ward, where SNP Councillor John Alexander has resigned his seat. First elected in 2012, Alexander wasn’t simply one of the local councillors, but in fact the Leader of the Council, heading up one of just two single-party majority administrations anywhere in Scotland. He’s off for pastures new in the the energy sector, as well as citing his desire for a better work life balance.
Given his senior role and relative youth (I’m only a couple of years younger so I’m really clinging to “relative youth” myself) I’m sure I won’t be the only person wondering whether that’s necessarily the whole of his reasoning. With the SNP clearly on a downward swing after nearly two decades in office, people who might previously have been on the Parliamentary track would perhaps be wise to look elsewhere for career development, at least for the next few years. Musings aside, the only reason his resignation hasn’t already tipped the council into an SNP minority is the Lochee by-election on the same day arising from a Labour vacancy.
Ward Details
Strathmartine is one of 8 wards in Dundee, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. It covers the north western chunk of the city, including the areas of Trottick, Downfield, Ardler, St Mary’s and Brackens. There haven’t been any boundary changes to Dundee since 2007 but not for want of trying; although the western end of the city was unchanged, the east was due a shakeup ahead of 2017. However, this would have split the affluent Broughty Ferry area between wards, and it’s always the affluent who get their way when a boundary dispute flares up. Residents there kicked up such a stink that Dundee ended up one of few council areas where recommended changes were rejected entirely by the government.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Dundee City West constituency which the SNP gained from Labour in the 2007 election. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Dundee Central constituency that the SNP held by the skin of their teeth at the general election this year, having gained the prior Dundee West seat from Labour in their 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
At the first outing for STV in 2007, the seats split one each to the SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and an Independent, Ian Borthwick. Borthwick had originally been elected as a Labour councillor… in 1963, but had been an Independent since 1987. With the Lib Dems suffering in 2012, Alexander was elected in their place as the second SNP councillor for the ward. The same pattern – and same councillors – held in 2017, though by this point Borthwick came within 10 votes of being beaten by the Lib Dems for the final seat. After nearly 60 years on the council, Bortwick retired in 2022, and the Lib Dems easily picked up that vacant seat.
It’s been a constant upwards trend for the SNP in this ward, growing their support at every election, whereas Borthwick’s ticked ever downwards across his final years on the council. As you’d expect, Labour support was more volatile over the period, but perhaps surprisingly the Lib Dem share was consistently pretty good. Even in their 2012 collapse they didn’t fall into single-digits, and with the extra room for growth in 2022’s sans-Independent ballot were able to score their best share yet.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: John Alexander
🔴Labour: Kevin Keenan
🟡SNP: Stewart Hunter
🟠Lib Dem: Daniel Coleman
Change vs 2017: +1 Lib Dem, -1 Independent (Ian Borthwick retired)
Electorate: 15266
Turnout: 40.1%
Valid: 5956 (97.3%)
Spoiled: 168 (2.7%)
Quota: 1192
Candidates
🟡SNP: John Alexander
🟢Green: Callum Baird
🟠Lib Dem: Daniel Coleman
🟣Family: Susan Ettle
🟡SNP: Stewart Hunter
🟤TUSC: Maddie Jamieson
🔴Labour: Kevin Keenan
🔵Conservative: Calum Walker
⚫Alba: Laura Whyte
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Relative to its neighbour and other recent by-elections, a notable absence for Reform UK and Alba on this paper; it’s just the Holyrood 5 plus the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition. The Green candidate is a direct return from this ward in 2022, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem candidates contested the Coldside ward that year, and Labour were to be found in the West End. That leaves only the SNP and TUSC with completely new candidates.
🔵Conservative: Naveed Ali
🟢Green: Callum Baird
🟡SNP: Jimmy Black
🟠Lib Dem: Jenny Blain
🟤TUSC: Donald MacLeod
🔴Labour: Richard McCready
Analysis
In 2022 terms, the SNP have what would usually be seen as a pretty solid lead of 15.9% when running that year as a single seat election. However, that’s nowhere near a safe margin for them at the moment, with both the national and local constituency swings to Labour in the General Election being twice what would be necessary to win this. I’d therefore peg Labour as having the best chance here, though in deference to the larger SNP lead I’d say Lean rather than Likely.
The SNP may be the underdogs, but defeat is not yet guaranteed. Given that there are two Dundee by-elections on the same day, and this one has by far the strongest starting position for the SNP, the sensible play would be to ignore Lochee and go all in on Strathmartine. Doing so would give them the best chance of getting a councillor in and, crucially, retaining their majority on the council. Whether they can bring themselves to do that though is another question.
One of the things that has been truly unique to the SNP since 2011 is that it has been worth their while campaigning everywhere. Nowhere was a waste of time or money, because they had the potential to win everywhere. That really is abnormal in a country which, even with some PR elements, is still obsessed with the magical “local link.” Generally, that necessitates careful targeting in the areas you’re most likely to win.
With the SNP badly bruised at the General Election and now on the back foot, they might need to rediscover targeting. But when you consider that even with the roughly halving of their membership compared to the post-IndyRef peak the majority still have no experience of the time before it, can they get activists in line? I’m sure folk from every other party can attest to how difficult it can be to wrangle activists into your targeting strategy, as the urge to just leaflet their own street can be overpowering. Now try doing that when they’ve taken it for granted that urge could be indulged without detriment.
Even if they do take this approach, Labour are still the favourites. If Labour win both by-elections, that leaves the SNP with 14 of 29 seats on the council. That could prompt a change of administration if – and it’s a sizeable if – the three other parties can make common enough cause to remove the SNP and, perhaps more to the point, Labour are willing to take on another administration in a tough financial situation. That makes this one a lot more consequential than your average local by-election!
Prediction
Lean Labour.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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