Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
A series of double bills continues into Dundee, though unfortunately after a run of resignations we’re back onto human mortality as a trigger. Labour Councillor for Lochee Charlie Malone sadly passed away recently, having served the ward since 2017. Malone had been a prominent figure locally, as a lecturer at one of the local universities and having been involved in the Timex Strike, one of the last major industrial disputes of the era.
Ward Details
Lochee is one of 8 wards in Dundee, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. The ward sits within effectively the midwestern portion of the city, obviously most notably covering Lochee itself (though not its park) plus Dryburgh and a part of Menzieshill. Beyond the western bounds of the Kingsway, it’s also got some new-ish housing developments in the form of the Dykes of Grey and that portion of the village of Liff which lies within the Dundee City Council area.
There haven’t been any boundary changes to Dundee since 2007 but not for want of trying; although the western end of the city was unchanged, the east was due a shakeup ahead of 2017. However, this would have split the affluent Broughty Ferry area between wards, and it’s always the affluent who get their way when a boundary dispute flares up. Residents there kicked up such a stink that Dundee ended up one of few council areas where recommended changes were rejected entirely by the government.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Dundee City West constituency which the SNP gained from Labour in the 2007 election. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Dundee Central constituency that the SNP held by the skin of their teeth at the general election this year, having gained the prior Dundee West seat from Labour in their 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
In purely party terms, absolutely no change whatsoever to Lochee’s representation at any election, returning two apiece for the SNP and Labour at every opportunity. There have however been some personnel changes in that time though. In 2007, Holyrood and Local elections still came at the same time, and Nigel Don ended up both a councillor and an MSP for North East Scotland; he resigned shortly afterwards, bringing party colleague Alan Ross onto the council at the resulting by-election. One of the Labour councillors chucked the party in 2009 but didn’t re-stand in 2012 anyway, and was replaced by a different Labour candidate.
Ahead of 2017, another Labour councillor decided to re-stand as an Independent, which with SNP counterpart Bob Duncan retiring saw all four original 2007 councillors gone from the council, alongside Malone’s original election. As that was alongside party colleague Michael Marra, who became a North East MSP in 2021, and the SNP’s Alan Ross defected to Alba, each party emerged from 2022 with one continuing and one new councillor.
In something of a contrast to the rest of Scotland, the SNP started out at their peak here in 2007 and whilst they’ve remained strong at every election since, have generally came a bit below that. Dundee has long been a stronghold for the SNP so perhaps they had less room to grow anyway, but it’s interesting when you consider an overall upwards trend nationally.
Labour have also been relatively consistent in the mid-30’s, barring a dip into the 20’s in 2017 when surging Conservatives made decent gains but simply couldn’t garner the transfers necessary to win a seat. Nobody else has ever really performed that well in this ward, and despite an incumbent councillor and Dundee being the only place in Scotland they contested every ward in 2022, Alba could only tie with the Lib Dems in last place.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Roisin Smith
🔴Labour: Charlie Malone
🟡SNP: Siobhan Tolland
🔴Labour: Wendy Scullin
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 40.4%
Electorate: 14912
Valid: 5843(97.0%)
Spoiled: 179 (3.0%)
Quota: 1169
Candidates
🟠Lib Dem: Jonathan Bremner
🟣Family: James Hosie
🔵Conservative: Gavin Mackenzie
🔴Labour: Charlie Malone
⚫Alba: Alan Ross
🔴Labour: Wendy Scullin
🟡SNP: Roisin Smith
🟡SNP: Siobhan Tolland
🟢Green: Kate Treharne
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
After having come to expect Reform UK candidates to be our new normal, their advance has apparently stopped at the Lochee and Dighty Burns, as neither of the Dundee by-elections has a cyan option. On this side of things we nonetheless have a relatively diverse ballot, with the whole Holyrood 5, Alba and the Worker’s Party. That fills in what was a notable absence for the Greens at the UK election, which struck me as rather odd given they had some good Dundee results in 2022 that you would assume they’d want to leverage into councillors in 2027 through consistent campaigning.
A few familiar faces on this one, with both the Green and Alba (that former councillor, Alan Ross) returning directly from 2022 – Ross was also the Alba candidate for Dundee Central at the General Election. The Lib Dem candidate meanwhile stood in the East End ward at the full election, whilst the Conservative contested Strathmartine.
🟠Lib Dem: Outi Bourke
🟡SNP: Lee Mills
🟤Workers: John Reddy
⚫Alba: Alan Ross
🔴Labour: Marty Smith
🟢Green: Kate Treharne
🔵Conservative: Calum Walker
Analysis
Although Dundee has been something of an SNP fiefdom for the past couple of decades, and showed the strongest Yes vote in 2014, they are in a lot more trouble there these days. They only just held onto the Dundee Central constituency by about 2% of the vote, and that was under First Past the Post. Their lead against Labour after transfers in 2022 was only about 6%, which is absolute child’s play to overturn at the moment. On that basis, there’s really not that much more to say except that I think this is a likely Labour win; it’s the less interesting of the two Dundee votes on this date.
Prediction
Likely Labour.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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