Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Similar to the Highland double bill on the same day, there’s a rural-urban split between the two in Perth and Kinross. This one is in Perth City North, and follows Labour Councillor Brian Leishman being elected as MP for Alloa and Grangemouth, having only been elected for the first time in 2022.
By sheer coincidence, this is not only the second time Ballot Box Scotland has encountered a by-election in this ward, but the second time it’s been as a double bill with another P&K ward. In fact, it’s also the second time such a by-election has arisen because the councillor in question was elected MP for a constituency located completely outwith the area.
Ward Details
Perth City North is one of 12 wards in Perth and Kinross, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. As you’d expect, this ward covers the northern portion of Perth itself, including Hillyland and Tulloch. It’s also got a chunk of Letham in it, though the southern portion of that area and a narrow stretch east of the railway line were lost in the 2017 boundary changes, along with one of its councillors.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Perthshire South and Kinross-shire constituency which has been held by the SNP since it was created in 2011 to succeed the also SNP seat of Perth and Kinross. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Perth and Kinross-shire seat which is one of the few the SNP held at the general election, having previously been in the Perth and North Perthshire seat that was likewise SNP for its entire existence.
Electoral History
Although Perthshire as a whole has long been an SNP-Conservative battleground, as a substantial urban area Labour had a decent presence in Perth itself. That was most notable in this ward, where although they lagged behind in votes they were able to split the ward half-n-half with the SNP with two councillors each. The party balance was maintained into 2012, though the SNP replaced Dave (Scott) with Dave (Doogan).
Labour’s relative success wouldn’t last into 2017 however, with the surging Conservatives picking up the one non-SNP seat in the drop to 3 councillors. The SNP also lost both of its councillors that term, with the original Elspeth Maclachlan leaving the party and Doogan preceding Leishman in resigning after being elected as MP. With the Conservatives back on the slide by 2022, Labour were able to reclaim a seat whilst a second new SNP councillor was elected to join Ian Massie who’d won the 2020 by-election following Doogan’s resignation.
Vote shares started out with the SNP easily winning two quotas worth, but Labour’s initial position had their second candidate narrowly behind the Conservatives. Transfers ultimately favoured them though, with a 20 vote lead in the end. Likely in part due to the collapse of the Lib Dem vote, Labour had a much easier time electing both in 2012. When 2017 rolled around however, the SNP were only a tiny bit short of two quotas despite the increased requirement, and the Conservatives exceeded quota too. That left absolutely no space for Labour regardless of transfers.
Things got worse for Labour in the 2020 by-election, though with the SNP polling obscene levels of support during the pandemic it really didn’t matter at all how anyone else did. The SNP were still riding high in 2022 and managed another clear majority of the vote, and though Labour recovered somewhat they still placed a bit behind the Conservatives. It was transfers that would seal the deal for Leishman, but only by a bawhair – if you scroll down the full election transfers towards the bottom, you’ll see that Green transfers put him just 2.7 votes ahead.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Ian Massie
🟡SNP: John Rebbeck
🔴Labour: Brian Leishman
Change vs 2017: +1 Labour, -1 Conservative
Electorate: 9041
Turnout: 39.3%
Valid: 3457 (97.3%)
Spoiled: 95 (2.7%)
Quota: 865
Candidates
⚫Alba: Alan Black
🟠Lib Dem: James Graham
🔴Labour: Brian Leishman
🟡SNP: Ian Massie
🟢Green: Ronnie McNeil
🟡SNP: John Rebbeck
🔵Conservative: Aziz Rehman
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Most of this ballot comes from what is coming to be the new normal, which is the Holyrood 5 plus Reform UK. They are joined by Alba, in only the second by election (of 18) this year that they have contested. Most candidates are new in this cycle for Perth and Kinross, barring the Conservative who is a direct return from 2022 and the Lib Dem, who stood in Almond and Earn. Indirectly, the Reform UK candidate was put forward as a ballot filler in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy at the UK election.
🟣Reform UK: Sonia Davidson
🟡SNP: Carol Mair
🟠Lib Dem: Tina Ng-a-Mann
🔴Labour: Kirsten Nkwocha-Dyer
🔵Conservative: Aziz Rehman
⚫Alba: Robert Reid
🟢Green: Caitlin Ripley
Analysis
This ward has never been anything but immensely strong for the SNP, and it’s hard to see how that changes despite everything else. It’s easy to think that Labour might fare better against them than the Conservatives did, given they faced a 35%-wide chasm, but not really back in 2022. An SNP-Labour head to head still has Labour around 28% behind.
That is a level of SNP lead that Labour did recently prove able to overturn… in the Central Belt. I’m not convinced that they can replicate that in Perth. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s absolutely impossible, but even at this moment it strikes me as unlikely. I’d therefore go so far as to say this isn’t simply a lean but a likely SNP win – and, following on from that, if the SNP don’t win it they are in an even more dire state than they might have realised.
If the SNP do win, that’ll give them every single councillor in the ward. I bang this drum every time this possibility arises or comes to pass, but this completely defeats the point of using a proportional voting system, which isn’t great to be frank. It’s a reminder that “people were able to vote” may in simple terms be a necessary component of democratic representation, but it is absolutely not the whole of it.
Prediction
Likely SNP.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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