Background
A double bill of Highland by-elections presented two very different tales. Here in Tain and Easter Ross, the resignation of SNP councillor Derek Louden continued what has become an annual festival of democracy. In 2023, the initially elected Lib Dem councillor stood down for health reasons. In 2024, the initially elected Independent councillor sadly died. So, with Louden’s resignation this year, all three local councillors elected in 2022 have left office. Hopefully, the good people of this ward get some peace for the last 18 months of the term!
In my preview, I’d noted that since Independents came from nowhere to win each of the previous two Tain and Easter Ross by-elections, I thought it was most likely that it’d be same again. I did however add that if it was to go to a party, it’d probably be the Lib Dems, given they are trying very hard to win the overlapping Holyrood constituency.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Lib Dem: Connie Ramsay
Change vs 2022 (notional): Lib Dem Hold
Change vs vacating: Lib Dem Gain vs SNP
Turnout: 33.8% (-1.1)
Electorate: 7183
Valid: 2412 (99.3%)
Spoiled: 18 (0.7%)
Quota: 1207
2 Continuing Councillors:
Independent: Maureen Ross
Independent: Laura Dundas
Candidates
Conservative: Manuel Androulakakis
Green: Andrew Barnett
SNP: Peter NewmanIndependent: Eric NimmonsLib Dem: Connie Ramsay
Reform UK: Stuart Wilson
First Preferences
Swing vs 2024 BE
Swing vs 2022
Note: Independent Laura Dundas won 36.0%, Independent John Shearer 3.6%, and Libertarians 1.0% in June 2024. Independent Alasdair Rhind won 21.1% and Independent Fiona Robertson 16.1% in 2022.
First Preference History
As it turned out, voters decided they’d had enough of new Independents coming in and they did indeed plump for a Lib Dem. That’s therefore not a totally flubbed prediction on my part, especially given the Independent did very respectably. Besides which, the fact the Lib Dems rocketed to their best ever share in the ward in my view speaks to their efforts to lock down the Holyrood seat. That said, it’s possible the Lib Dems weren’t entirely expecting to win, as their candidate wasn’t at the count; of course, they could have had other reasons for being absent, but it was still notable in the livecast!
Local MSP Maree Todd may have quite a lot to fear based on this outcome, especially as the SNP collapsed to their worst share since before the Independence referendum. They’ll find that especially disappointing after they’d so substantially rebounded in last year’s by-election. Although the first outing for Reform in this ward put them pretty close to the SNP, which absolutely affirms their growing strength, you shouldn’t read too much into this given the low turnout and Independent strength. Eliminating the Independent and assuming exhausted votes would have moved roughly in line with those that did transfer doubles the gap between the two parties, and (as I’ll mention when analysis for it goes live) Caol and Mallaig shows transfers even more favourable to the SNP over Reform.
At the bottom of the ballot, one particular note I’d had in my preview was whether the Conservatives would slip behind the Greens here too. I’d used the phrase “truly vestigial” to refer to their vote in the neighbouring Cromarty Firth by-election earlier this year, and I think it’s fair to say that’s what happened here. Whilst the slightly reduced Green vote is nothing to write home about either, it’s part for the course for them in this part of the country. The Conservatives though were completely consumed by Reform, slipping to their second-worst share in the ward’s history, and losing around 88% of their peak share in 2017.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
Two-Party Preferred
TPP swing vs 2024 BE
TPP swing vs 2022
The Lib Dem lead in first preferences was substantial, but given their own transfer-friendliness at the moment I’d probably have leant towards assuming from the outset they’d go on to win after transfers, had Highland kept to their pre-pandemic hand counting ways. As it was we got the winner announcement with the numbers, which did indeed show them emerging victorious, with only a very slight narrowing of the gap for the Independent.
The scale of the challenge facing the SNP in the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross seat next May are evident in the three Two-Party Preferred based charts. Compared to last year’s by-election, there was an after-transfers swing of about 14.5% from SNP to Lib Dem. Compared to 2022, it’s about 18.2%. It’s especially worth bearing in mind that in 2022, this was the part of the constituency where the SNP beat the Lib Dems: if they are now ahead here, and so significantly, they are likely to be in the lead at Holyrood too. That won’t be news to anyone who follows BBS polling aggregation, mind you, as that’s had CSR firmly orange for quite some time now.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
There was a clear divide in the ward between the Inver and Portmahomack area which was a real stronghold for the Independent, whereas the rest saw Lib Dem leads, most notably in Tain. Given that saw the lowest Independent share and it’s the main town in the area, that probably also explains why it was the best patch for the SNP and Greens too. Reform meanwhile peaked around Balintore, and the rump Conservative vote in the southern villages merger: Hill of Fearn, Milton and Kildary, Pitcalnie and Barbaraville.
Second Preferences
In second preference terms, really nothing too surprising here. We’ve got a mutual flow between the Lib Dem and Independent voter blocs, which I would say is to be expected in Highland contests. The Independent was likewise favoured by Reform and, most strongly, Conservative voters. That left the usual SNP and Green mutual flows to be the only plurality flows to parties.
We’ve got a couple of by-elections in October, though at time of publication nominations hadn’t closed for the second one. It’s therefore just Ayr North on the 16th to be linked to, where the SNP and Lib Dems will very much find their roles reversed compared to these Highland contests.
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