Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
As is too often the case, we’re off to South Ayrshire for this by-election in unfortunate circumstances. Independent councillor Mark Dixon (originally elected for the SNP) sadly passed away in July, triggering a vote in Ayr North. Dixon had only served as a councillor since 2022, and he wasn’t in the SNP for much of that: I couldn’t find the exact moment of his switch, but he left the party at some point in late 2023 or early 2024. According to his Facebook page he’d joined the Greens, but the party do not allow defecting representatives to formally sit under their banner.
Ward Details
Ayr North is one of 8 wards in South Ayrshire, and one of 3 covering the town, electing 4 councillors at a full election. This covers almost the whole of the town north of the River Ayr, excluding a section around John Street. That includes Wallacetown, Newton-on-Ayr,Woodfield, Braehead, Dalmilling and, to the south of the Ayr Racecourse, Craigie. Whilst Ayr is an affluent enough town to have a strongly Conservative history, that’s not the character of this ward, which is much more working class.Â
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Ayr constituency which the SNP won from the Conservatives by a hair in 2021. The Conservatives had themselves lost to Labour by a hair in the inaugural 1999 election, but won it at the first ever Holyrood by-election less than a year later. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency which has changed hands at every one of the past few elections: Labour won it in 2024, of course, the SNP in 2019, the Conservatives in 2017, the SNP obviously in 2015, and before that it had been Labour.
Electoral History
There’s a neat pre-vs-post IndyRef pattern for this ward. Prior to that dividing line, the ward elected two Labour councillors plus one apiece for the SNP and Conservatives. That said, the initial Labour pairing didn’t last long as Douglas Campbell quit the party a year later before joining the SNP in 2011. It was the original SNP councillor who then lost out in 2012.
The shift in 2017 effectively saw the original 2007 Labour councillors re-elected albeit that Campbell was of course still now in the SNP and joined by a new party colleague, as well as a new Conservative. Campbell retired in 2022, allowing Dixon to join the other three re-elected councillors. Despite massive ructions in the local Conservative group that saw almost half their councillors leave the party the local one, Ian Davis, remains aligned with them.
In terms of votes, Labour had a commanding lead in 2007 and 2012, easily justifying their two councillors. Whilst the SNP and Conservatives started out pretty close, pretty much all the vote that had gone to other candidates in 2012 ended up condensed behind the SNP, who came 12 votes away from unseating the Conservatives. After the referendum, the Labour vote crashed pretty hard, slipping narrowly behind the Conservatives, and it was the SNP vaulting into easy double territory. With the Conservatives on the back foot in 2022, they fell back into third place but still easily won their seat.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Laura Brennan-Whitefield
đź”´Labour: Ian Cavana
🟡SNP: Mark Dixon
🔵Conservative: Ian Davis
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 39.2%
Electorate: 12973
Valid: 4921 (96.7%)
Spoiled: 166 (3.3%)
Quota: 985
Candidates
🟡SNP: Laura Brennan-Whitefield
đź”´Labour: Ian Cavana
🔵Conservative: Ian Davis
🟡SNP: Mark Dixon
đźź Lib Dem: Mason Graham
🔵Conservative: David Paterson
⚪Independent: Andrew Russell
âš«Alba: Denise Sommerville
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
It’s the traditional Westminster 4, plus Reform UK and a trio of Independents for this one; no Greens, though that’s pretty normal for South Ayrshire. A fair few of these are returning candidates, with both the Lib Dem and Conservative having contested this ward for their parties in 2022. The Reform candidate also stood here, but as an Independent; he’d already joined them by 2024 and was their Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock candidate last year. The other party candidates meanwhile came from other Ayr wards, the SNP having run for East and Labour in West.
⚪Independent: Orhan Bulikj
🟡SNP: Ian Douglas
đź”´Labour: John Duncan
đźź Lib Dem: Mason Graham
⚪Independent: Wullie Hogg
🔵Conservative: David Paterson
⚪Independent: David Petrie
🟣Reform UK: Andrew Russell
Analysis
The SNP’s lead over Labour is pretty substantial, at a bit over 13%, which is a level Labour generally haven’t been overturning lately. There have been exceptions, but the norm over 2025 has been for the SNP to hold these. On top of that, Labour’s Holyrood polling continues to be absolutely dire, and I’d expect this is the sort of ward where Reform UK will do very well. Nonetheless, the SNP are hardly in the healthiest state at the moment either, so I’m inclined to go for a relatively cautious “lean” prediction for this one.
Prediction
Lean SNP.
Special Explanation for the Daily Express in words of one syllable only: I do not think the S N P have a sure win, “lean” means they have a wee small edge on Labour (sorry that Labour is two syllables, and also that syllables is three)
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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