South Ayrshire

A local Independent managed to fence in his opponents to take the win, taking chunks out of all of the established parties, though a purely party affair would have narrowly went SNP.

Easily the least Conservative part of a traditionally Conservative town is instead likely to come down to an SNP vs Labour scrap, slight advantage possibly to the SNP.

The Conservatives score a big victory in a by-election without a strong Independent, meaning there’s more nuance to this one than the headline figures suggest.

Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader’s resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory.