A weaker than average poll for the SNP and best in a while for the Conservatives could suggest a majority remains an unlikely result on Thursday.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: Survation 17th – 23rd of April 2026
Overlapping with the BBS poll, a second Survation paints a slightly better picture for the SNP and Greens, versus a poorer Conservative and Reform seat tally. Beware the margin of error though!
BBS Exclusive Poll Analysis: Survation 14th – 21st of April 2026
This BBS-commissioned poll is surprisingly poor for the SNP, but still has a small Pro-Independence majority. Nonetheless, John Swinney will be hoping this is an outlier.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 24th of March – 10th of April 2026
An outlier pollster for the SNP, Greens (both low) and Lib Dems (notably high) nonetheless still translates, via the SNP’s constituency dominance, into an expected Pro-Independence majority in the chamber.
Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March – 8th of April 2026
Scepticism about fancy MRP polling aside and just using their vote share figures, the SNP are within touching distance of a majority whilst the Conservatives are near-death.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of March – 1st of April 2026
What Labour attempted to convince the media was a good poll for them would still be their worst ever Holyrood result and offer Anas Sarwar no path to Bute House.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 26th – 31st of March 2026
An absolute disaster of a poll for Labour, and the first to ever suggest the Greens could be the largest opposition party. Take that latter idea with a whole heap of salt, of course!
SP26 Party Profile: Scottish National Party
The big beasts of Scottish politics, by rights the SNP should be headed to a bruising election. Instead, Labour’s total collapse has opened the door to a big SNP win and potentially even a majority.
SP26 Party Profile: Scottish Conservatives
Oh, how the Scottish Conservatives have fallen: from de-toxified champions of the Union under the socially liberal Ruth Davidson, back to the Nasty Party.
SP26 Party Profile: Scottish Labour
Anas Sarwar’s dreams of Bute House have become nightmares, as a floundering UK Government drags its Scottish (and Welsh) arms down with it.