Background
With just 57 MPs, Westminster by-elections are a real rarity in Scotland; until yesterday, there had only been one in the entire eight year period since I launched Ballot Box Scotland. Naturally then two came along at once, following the election of the SNP Stephens to Holyrood last month. As it is now impossible to hold a dual mandate as MSP and MP (for longer than 49 days), that triggered by-elections.
For Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the vacating Stephen was Gethins, who had returned to Westminster in 2024 after losing his North East Fife seat in 2019. In my preview, I’d noted that despite being the more marginal of the two by-elections due up on the same day, I expected this to be much less hotly contested. There was no shockingly close Holyrood result in the overlapping seats, and the 2024 runner up was Labour, a party absolutely dying on its backside right now. As such, I had this as a likely SNP victory.
Results
Key Stats
MP Elected:
SNP: Lara Bird
Change vs 2024: SNP Hold
Turnout: 31.4% (-26.8)
Electorate: 75985
Valid: 23,770 (99.8%)
Spoiled: 57 (0.2%)
Candidates
Lib Dem: Tanvir AhmadSNP: Lara Bird
Conservative: Jack Cruickshanks
Labour: Heather Doran
Reform UK: Bill Reid
Votes
Swing vs 2024
Note: Alba won 1.6% and Sovereignty 0.5% in 2024.
Vote Share History
And so it went, with the SNP’s Lara Bird scoring a very easy win; this means Kirsty Blackman is no longer the SNP’s only woman MP. Though still far adrift of their notional 2019 result, the SNP recorded a solid increase in their vote share, one several ways in which this result contrasts with the concurrent vote in Aberdeen.
The other is that although the Conservatives themselves made modest gains, they were nonetheless a very distant second and only barely ahead of Reform UK. With no clear tactical path to a non-SNP victory in this seat, Reform show a much more “natural” share than they did further up the coast, roughly matching what they got in the corresponding Holyrood seats.
Labour’s vote absolutely collapsed here too, the only party to lose support, by over half their share and crashing down into fourth place. It’s not as bad for them as in Aberdeen South in the sense that they remain comfortably in double-digit support rather than barely holding their deposit, but it’s much worse in that it suggests very little prospect of winning this seat at the next general election despite how close they ran it in 2024. Yet again, this was broadly in line with their Holyrood results. The same is true of the Lib Dems, who saw a slight increase that helped ensure a kept deposit.
Overall, of the two by-elections, this is the one that looks closest to the genuine picture in Scotland right now. Emphasis very much on “closest”: most seats in Scotland are in the urban central belt, where the Conservatives completely evaporated last month, and the Greens also continued their odd habit of sitting out Dundee Westminster votes. By-elections shouldn’t shape policy and narrative regardless, but if you are going to insist on trying to do so, this is the one to draw from, not the unique circumstances of Aberdeen South.
There are two by-elections next week. The first is George Street and Harbour, which is within the Aberdeen South area where the other Westminster ballot was held. I expect turnout for that to be absolutely rotten; it was already only 28.3% in 2022, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets close to 10% this time. Having voters turn out two weeks in a row is a recipe for them not to bother with the second. The other is in Highland’s East Sutherland and Edderton ward which is thankfully not going to be quite so impacted by voter exhaustion.
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