Constituency Profile
Cause of By-Election
Even before the first vote in last month’s Scottish Parliament election had been counted, there was a very clear expectation it’d trigger two UK Parliament by-elections. With the SNP Stephens seeking to make a move from Westminster to Holyrood and polling suggesting they’d make it, they would have to resign as MPs following new rules banning dual MP/MSP mandates. In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, it’s Stephen Gethins who successfully made the leap as new MSP for Dundee City East.
Gethins was first elected as MP in 2015 for the North East Fife constituency, when he gained it from the Lib Dems. He held on by the barest margin in 2017 when his two (2!) vote majority was the slenderest anywhere in the UK, but was the only SNP MP to lose his seat in an otherwise recovery election in 2019. He made a return to Westminster in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in 2024, but was run incredibly close by Labour’s resurgence.
Constituency Details
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is one of two constituencies each the cover the Dundee and Angus council areas. From Dundee it contains 2 of 8 wards in full: North East and the Ferry. It also has a portion of the East End ward around Douglas. From Angus it contains 3 of 4 wards in full: Carnoustie and District; Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim; and Arbroath East and Lunan. There’s also about a third of the area but the vast majority of the population of the Monifieth and Sidlaw ward, taking the A90 as the dividing line.
This seat could be seen as a successor to the previous Dundee East constituency. Despite its name that was not confined solely to the city, extending as far east into Angus as Carnoustie. However, it’s only a very loose successor. From Dundee itself this new seat has lost substantial areas to the east of the city centre, including Stobswell, Craigiebank and Pitkerro. In its place came Arbroath and its rural hinterland, including Letham, Friockheim and Inverkeilor.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, a large portion of the seat overlaps with Gethins’ new Dundee City East patch, which doesn’t have Claverhouse but does have the likes of Craigie, Stobswell and Coldside. The SNP have held this and its predecessor seat since 2003, Labour having won it at the inaugural election. The rest of the area is covered by Angus South which the SNP have always held, and on 1999 boundaries this area was largely within the Angus seat which was likewise an SNP stronghold.
Electoral History
MP Elected
As this is a much more substantially redrawn seat than the Aberdeen one taking place on the same day, I’m only comparing against the 2019 notionals, with the SNP the theoretical winner than and then in reality in 2024. If we do consider the history of the preceeding seats, these are some long-standing SNP strongholds, the party having won both seats in 2005 and held them for almost the entire rest of their existence. The one exception was a brief interlude when Angus fell into Conservative hands from 2017 until 2019.
Vote Shares
Given the SNP’s historic dominance in this part of Scotland, it’s no surprise the notional result in 2019 would be a majority of the vote. With Labour quite badly wounded at that election and this seat covering Dundee’s most affluent section plus a large chunk of Conservative-friendly Angus, it’s likewise unsurprising to see the Conservatives were miles ahead for second place.
That made it a big surprise, not least to the SNP, when Labour came extremely close to winning in 2024. Their vote share more than trebled against a halving of Conservative support. I was quite shocked by this myself as I had assumed the large Angus component would really work against Labour. For some reason the Dundee and Angus branch of the Greens have proven allergic to contesting Westminster seats, and it’s not impossible their presence could have made the difference for Labour.
2024 Key Stats
Winner:
🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins (HOLD)
Majority: 859 (1.9%)
Electorate: 76149
Turnout: 58.1%
Valid: 44117 (99.6%)
Spoiled: 161 (0.4%)
Candidates
🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins
đź”´Labour: Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank
🔵Conservative: Richard Brooks
đźź Lib Dem: David Evans
âš«Alba: Ghazi Khan
🟣Reform UK: Gwen Wood
🟤Sovereignty: Moira Brown
Votes
By-Election Details
Candidates
Only five of the Holyrood parties for this one; as noted above, there seems to be something in the Tay that dissuades the Greens from standing Westminster candidates. For those understandably not aware of each party’s rules, it is a matter for Green branches whether they contest constituencies or not: it isn’t possible to hand down a command from on-high that they either do or don’t do so.
A few returning faces here from last month. Both the Conservative and Lib Dem candidates stood in Dundee City East and on their party’s regional list; the Conservative has also been a councillor for Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim since a 2024 by-election. The Reform and Labour candidates were the same, just in Angus South; the Labour candidate has also been a councillor for Monifieth and Sidlaw since 2022. That means it’s the SNP’s candidate who is the only new face this time around.
Lib Dem: Tanvir Ahmad
SNP: Lara Bird
Conservative: Jack Cruickshanks
Labour: Heather Doran
Reform UK: Bill Reid
Analysis
Despite the fact that in 2024 terms this is the closer of the two simultaneous by-elections due on the 18th of June, I expect this to be more comfortable for the SNP. Labour’s re-collapse means they are in no position to turn their 1.9% deficit into a victory.
At the same time, the Conservatives were simply too far behind in 2024 and did very poorly in the corresponding Holyrood seats last month. And, of course, the lack of Greens plays in the SNP’s favour. Reform’s inevitably improved result is also going to come at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives rather than the SNP.
The SNP are hardly buoyant at the moment though: they are the least unpopular of a generally unpopular set of parties. Even though I struggle to see how either of their main competitors beats them, I also can’t quite bring myself to suggest this is a done deal for them. As such, I’ve gone for this being a Likely SNP hold.
Prediction
Likely SNP.
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful. (About Donations)
