Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Before getting into the meat of this by-election, I’m aware this is much later than I normally do my previews. Usually I try and get these out the door the day of or after nominations close, which is a month beforehand, but in this case all of my attention was fully occupied by the UK General Election. I’ll be similarly delayed in reporting the outcome of this one as I’m away on a wee holiday next week.
Our third by-election of the term for Argyll and Bute Council takes us back to the scene of the first: Kintyre and the Islands. This has been a really unfortunate few years for this part of the country, as that previous by-election had been triggered by the death of Independent Councillor John McAlpine just a couple of months after the election. We now return to the ward following the sad passing of Lib Dem councillor Robin Currie.
Currie was an extremely long-serving councillor, totalling 40 years of representation stretching back into the era of the Argyll and Bute District of Strathclyde under the old arrangements. He took over leadership of the council in September 2020 and served in that role up until April this year, until in a dramatic turn of events, the administration passed over to the SNP following a cut of the cards in April this year.
As this is effectively a repeat, the following Ward Details and Electoral History sections are largely lifted and laid from the preview and results analysis from the previous by-election. Nae need to re-do it all from scratch, eh? Note that as that by-election is more recent, comparisons will primarily be made with reference to that vote rather than the full election.
Ward Details
Kintyre and the Islands is one of 11 wards in Argyll and Bute, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. The mainland component of the ward covers the northern half of the Kintyre peninsula from Carradale up to Tarbert, where it extends beyond to include a sparsely populated snippet of Knapdale. Of the Islands included Islay is by far the most populous, home to over 3,000 folk. Neighbouring Jura is geographically extensive but only has a couple of hundred residents, whilst Colonsay to the north and Gigha to the south are only around a hundred each.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is within the Argyll and Bute constituency that the SNP gained from the Lib Dems in 2007. In the UK Parliament it’s part of the Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber seat that the SNP likewise won from the Lib Dems in 2015, and held against the national tide in this year’s election.
Electoral History
The first two STV elections returned the same three councillors – McAlpine along with one apiece from the SNP and Lib Dems. Robin Currie, the Lib Dem councillor, had likewise represented a part of the ward under the old FPTP system, covering Colonsay, Jura and the northern part of Islay since at least 1995, though he’d been elected unopposed in both 1999 and 2003. In 2017, McAlpine lost his seat to a Conservative, but regained it in 2022. That would have returned the ward to its original set of three councillors if the SNP’s hadn’t retired and handed over to a newcomer and McAlpine himself hadn’t passed so soon after.
Looking at vote shares the Lib Dems started out as easily the most popular option, winning roughly twice as many votes as either McAlpine or the SNP. You can then clearly see the impact of the Lib Dem collapse and SNP surge in 2012, when it was a very close four way scrap for the three seats, with Labour and Green transfers necessary to tip the scales against the Conservatives. The loss of McAlpine’s seat in 2017 is explained by a sharp decline in his vote, leaving him miles adrift of the Conservatives and Lib Dems who both remained at nearly a full quota.
His bounceback in 2022 saw his best ever vote share alongside continued growth for the SNP. The big losses for the Conservatives can be explained by the fact their councillor, Alastair Redman, stood as an Independent and tied with the Lib Dems on first preferences, meaning it was down to transfers to settle it in the latter’s favour. At the by-election that followed shortly thereafter, Redman was able to overtake everyone else to take the win.
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor:
Independent: Alastair Redman
Change vs 2022 (notional): No partisan change
Change vs vacating: No partisan change
Turnout: 34.1% (-20.9)
Electorate: 5368
Valid: 1806 (98.6%)
Spoiled: 25 (1.4%)
Quota: 904
Candidates
Labour: Gopi Ageer
Lib Dem: Kenny MacKenzie
SNP: Lachie MacQuarieIndependent: Alastair Redman
Green: Tom Skinner
Conservative: Hamish Stewart
First Preferences
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
A relatively limited ballot this time, with neither a Green nor Labour candidate available, after both stood in the previous by-election. There are some interesting returning faces here. The SNP candidate had previously been her party’s councillor for the ward for 15 years but retired in 2022. Meanwhile, Independent Donald Kelly actually retired from representing the South Kintyre ward less than a year ago! Although both the Conservative and Lib Dem candidates are new in this cycle, the Conservative turns out to be the mother of Conservative-turned-Independent councillor Alastair Redman who won the prior by-election.
🟡SNP: Anne Horn
🔵Conservative: Elizabeth Redman
🟠Lib Dem: Douglas MacDonald
⚪Independent: Donald Kelly
🟤Freedom Alliance: Alan McManus
Analysis
This is a really, really peculiar one. It hasn’t been unheard of for elected representatives to retire at one election and then decide to stand again later, as is the case with the SNP’s Anne Horn. It absolutely is bizarre to see a councillor resign their seat mid-term then stand in a subsequent by-election, as Donald Kelly has. His resignation was rooted in dissatisfaction with the running of the council however, and he appears to be much happier with the change in administration. That’s certainly Independent-minded of him when you consider his history prior to 2022 as a Conservative councillor.
That’s certainly a complicating factor in this by-election which I would otherwise have pegged as leaning towards the Lib Dems. Whilst the previous by-election had a very good result for the SNP and a worst-yet performance for the Lib Dems, we all saw what happened to the SNP vote across Scotland just over a week ago. In a purely party contest, I’d expect enough votes to fall in behind the Lib Dems to defeat the SNP. Independents are strong in this part of the country though and, though for a neighbouring ward, Kelly’s history may also count in his favour.
I’m therefore inclined to see this as a tossup between Kelly and the Lib Dems. I wouldn’t write the SNP off entirely, given the vote history, hence why I’d have otherwise went for “lean” SNP, but I think their chances are low enough that I wouldn’t include them as part of the tossup.
Although neither would win, I’m slightly disappointed by the lack of Green and Labour candidates this time around. In the 2022 by-election the Greens did pretty well, whilst Labour barely registered. That may have been that the former had an in-ward candidate whilst the latter didn’t even have an in-council one. Given the absence of the Greens in this seat and the significant overall growth of Labour at the General Election, I would have been interested to see how each would have performed in relative terms.
Prediction
Lib Dem-Independent Tossup.
2022 By-Election Results (Detailed Data)
Two-Party Preferred
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
