This is probably going to be a classic Rural Highland contest between the Lib Dems and an Independent of unpredictable popularity. If the top two are the Lib Dems and A.N. Other Party, the Lib Dems will walk it.
By-elections
By-Election Preview: George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) 25th of June 2026
A by-election a week after a more important by-election covering the same area? Oh that’s a recipe for miserable turnout. SNP still favoured regardless? Probably.
By-Election Result: Bearsden South
An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter’s prospects in May.
By-Election Result: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
An absolutely dire result for Labour bodes ill for their chances in May, and not just because their share of the vote was cut in half.
By-Election Preview: Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) 29th of January 2025
Romance fraud? Embezzlement? Alleged electoral fraud? An absolute corker of a tale behind this by-election, though the outcome will be less wild: Lib Dem win.
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour’s current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
By-Election Result: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2025)
An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform’s support varies across the country.
By-Election Result: Whitburn and Blackburn (2025)
Reform squeak their first ever council win in Scotland as the Labour and Conservative votes collapse, and an Independent positions for a 2027 seat.
By-Election Result: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party’s voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy by-election with lots to watch: tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?