Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you all had a nice, restful festive season, because the next few months are going to be anything but. The Holyrood campaign will soon hit fever pitch, and you’ll start to be deluged with leaflets, especially for those few of you who live in a Lib Dem target patch. Before then though we’ve got a few council by-elections.
Our first for 2026 takes us to Fife’s Glenrothes West and Kinglassie, where SNP Councillor Julie Ford has resigned due to changes elsewhere in her life that mean she no longer felt able to fully commit to the role. Having served between 2017 and 2022 as the Depute Provost of Fife, she was first elected in the second of two 2015 by-elections for this ward, so in that sense had served the equivalent of two full terms.
Ward Details
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is one of 22 wards in Fife, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. This covers much of Glenrothes to the south of the River Leven and west of town centre, including the Macedonia, Tanshall, Rimbleton, Whitehill and Finglassie areas. Kinglassie is a much smaller neighbouring settlement which shares the mining heritage of many such Fife villages. The ward was redrawn slightly in 2017, losing the Stenton area which lies between the roundabout of the same name east to the A82, which also reduced its councillor tally by one.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Mid Fife and Glenrothes constituency that the SNP won under its previous incarnation of Central Fife in 2007, though at that point Kinglassie lay within the Labour-held constituency of Dunfermline East. This had previously been Labour, won in 1999 by Henry McLeish, who for want of an extra four weeks over Humza Yousaf still holds the title of Scotland’s shortest-serving First Minister. At the UK Parliament it’s within the oppositely-titled Glenrothes and Mid Fife, having previously been in what was simply called Glenrothes. This was one of many seats that Labour won from the SNP last July, who had obviously first picked it up in their 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
This ward has never elected anything bar SNP and Labour councillors, with the first two elections easily going two to each party. Despite the lack of scheduled local elections, 2015 however brought a lot of change to this ward. First, the death of Labour councillor Betty Campbell triggered a by-election which went to the SNP’s Craig Walker. The two other SNP councillors both quit later that year, Bill Brown just from the party so remaining as an Independent councillor, whereas Peter Grant had become the MP for Glenrothes so resigned his seat. The SNP easily held that by-election, bringing Julie Ford in.
Those two by-election winners remained the SNP representation at the two succeeding elections, whilst Labour absorbed the lost seat in the boundary changes. Since 2017, their councillor has been Altany Craik, an “occult horror” author who was at the centre of one of the funniest bits of pre-GE24 selection season. Originally having run for selection to the Westminster seat, he later pulled out for personal reasons. One local source summarised these as “They’re saying he’s not a suitable candidate because his books are too sexy and satanic.” What a phenomenal little quote that was, and if you didn’t see it at the time, this is a new year’s gift for you.
Looking at the voting pattern over the period, the SNP started with a near-majority of votes. Although Labour trailed a fair bit behind, nobody else scored even a full 6% of first preferences, so they nonetheless easily won a second seat. Labour’s bounce year in 2012 brought them to within touching distance of the SNP, as both parties won over 40% of the vote and thus had no problem re-electing their councillors. The two 2015 by-elections took place at the absolute peak of the SNP’s post-IndyRef surge and so led to jaw-dropping first preference majorities that we should view as clearly exceptional.
2017’s Conservative revival was visually dramatic and saw a quintupling of their vote compared to 2012, but it still left them far short of a seat. Despite a solid performance from former SNP councillor Brown as an Independent, the SNP recovered a bit of vote share. That would continue into 2022 with the SNP hitting their best share outwith by-elections, accompanied by a decent bounce for Labour as the Conservatives started going backwards once more.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
SNP: Julie Ford
Labour: Altany CraikSNP: Craig Walker
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 38.9%
Electorate: 12068
Valid: 4588 (97.9%)
Spoiled: 103 (2.2%)
Quota: 1148
Candidates
Labour: Altany Craik
Conservative: David CrollSNP: Julie Ford
Independent: Ian Robertson
Lib Dem: Keith SmithSNP: Craig Walker
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
As has been the norm in recent Fife contests, we’re only missing the Greens out of the major parties; for whatever reason, they don’t seem to be able to get it together for this end of the Kingdom, though this ward was their one absence in 2022. There are a few returning faces on this ballot, the SNP candidate having contested Kirkcaldy Central in 2022 and Labour in Leven, Kennoway and Largo. The Family candidate stood for West Fife and Coastal Villages in both 2022 and the 2024 by-election, as well as Dunfermline and Dollar at the 2024 General Election, whilst the Lib Dem contested neighbouring Glenrothes Central and Thornton in last year’s by-election.
🔵Conservative: Andrew Butchart
🟡SNP: Zoe Hisbent
đźź Lib Dem: Ed Scotcher
🟤Family: Danny Smith
🟣Reform UK: Romano Valente
đź”´Labour: Jacob Winton
Analysis
Labour are starting 8% behind the SNP after transfers here, and recently they have really struggled to convert that kind of lead. That means I would quite simply mark the SNP out as quite likely favourites. Indeed, given their strong performance last year in the other Glenrothes by-election, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reform actually pushed Labour into third. The question then is whether they’d be able to overtake the SNP and, if so, hold that after transfers.
That has so far only happened once, in Whitburn and Blackburn last month, and we should be aware it could happen again. However I’m inclined to view that as a lot less likely here on the basis that the SNP are starting from almost half of the first preference vote, so they’d have to fall very, very hard in order to truly flub this one. They’ll also be helped very slightly by the absence of the Greens, which will reduce leakage through the transfer rounds.
Prediction
Likely SNP.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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