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With just a few weeks left to go until the big day, it’s time for the regular Ballot Box Battlegrounds series! Over this week, we’ll be taking a look at every constituency in Scotland considered marginal in 2021 terms – i.e. where the winner’s majority is below 10%. More than at any Holyrood election up until now, constituency winners really matter, because the SNP are expected to win so many more than their “ideal” proportional share if the voting system was working perfectly.
I’ve also picked out two bonus rounds worth of seats that are worth keeping an eye on even though they aren’t marginal. Each entry in the series will also look over one of the regions. Although that means three regions will go un-Battlegrounded, remember I’ve done regional previews (which also include some thoughts on every constituency) which are available here.
Note that for constituencies and regions impacted by boundary changes, I’m using my own notional calculations for 2021 results on the new boundaries. The reason we compare with 2021 rather than current projections is simple: even with boundary changes, we can be relatively sure what those results were. By contrast, projecting constituency results from national polling is always subject to substantial margins of error. Better then to compare with a known quantity than a rough and highly changeable estimate of current support.
That does however mean the first three entries in this series are surprisingly light on prospective Labour constituencies, and very heavy on marginals featuring strong Conservatives. Don’t worry though, because that’s exactly what the bonus rounds are for!
Update: I thought I’d been very clever in splitting the series into three entries on marginals of 5 apiece, until a helpful Bluesky follower pointed out I had missed Caithness, Sutherland and Ross! This piece therefore gets to be an odd one out with 6 constituencies as I’ve added it into its correct place.
#16: Angus North and Mearns
Constituency Map
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: 
SNP
Majority: 3509 (9.9%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: North East
2026 Candidates
SNP: Dawn Black, L5
Conservative: Tracey Smith, L7
Labour: Simon Watson, L5
Lib Dem: Martyn Knights, L6
Reform UK: Laurie Carnie, L7
Independent: David Allen Neill
Analysis
We start at the absolute outer edges of marginality, with the SNP’s Mairi Gougeon beating the Conservatives by 9.9% last time. Were the SNP the only one of this pair suffering a substantial loss of support, this would be a potential Conservative pickup. With them instead on life support, it’s very unlikely the SNP’s new candidate Dawn Black will be troubled here. We can also be absolutely certain of the 2021 comparison point as like most North East constituencies, boundaries here are unchanged.
That would continue the unbroken tradition of SNP representation in Angus constituencies, albeit Black hails from the Mearns end of the seat, where she serves as a councillor for Stonehaven and Lower Deeside. I certainly expect a decent showing from Reform in this seat, putting forward Mearns councillor Laurie Carnie, but that it’s unlikely to deviate enough from their national average to put them in contention to actually win it.
Perhaps then what makes this seat most interesting this time around is not the possibility it will change parties, but the guarantee it will change MSP. A relatively young MSP first elected in 2016, Gougeon spent the entire 2021 term holding the Rural Affairs post in the Cabinet. Given her age and prominence, it was common to see her marked out as one of the SNP’s future talents. To be stepping back after a decade in parliament is therefore something of a surprise, though Gougeon herself has noted that it’s nearly two decades in public service as she’d been a councillor from 2007 to 2017 too.
#15: Dumfriesshire
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Conservative
Majority: 4066 (9.9%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: South
2026 Candidates
SNP: Stephen Thomson, L8Conservative: Craig Hoy (*L), L2Labour: Linda Dorward, L3Lib Dem: Ian McDonaldReform UK: David Kirkwood, L2
Common Party: Paul Adkins, L1
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
No less marginal than the preceding seat at 9.9% again, but a lot more interesting, we head southwards to Dumfriesshire. This is one of just three parts of Scotland that has never had an SNP constituency MSP or MP: the other two are Orkney and Shetland. Instead, representing Dumfriesshire was a Mundell family affair for a decade. David Mundell (father) has held the UK equivalent constituency since 2005, serving as the sole Conservative MP in Scotland until 2017. Meanwhile, Oliver Mundell (son) represented this Holyrood seat since 2016 when he won it from Labour’s Elaine Murray.
Were the SNP to emerge victorious this election, that would be a real coup for local council leader Stephen Thomson. His chances may be slightly boosted by the fact the younger Mundell is standing down. Sitting South Scotland list MSP Craig Hoy is seeking to hold it for the Conservatives, but it’s possible he might miss a small bit of a personal vote the Mundells have on lockdown. This has recently been one of the closest seats in the BBS model, with the SNP anticipated to squeak ahead by less than 1% at the time of writing: in other words, a complete tossup.
The big question of course, as in all of the Conservative held (or hotly contested) seats is how resilient their vote is against Reform. I’m starting from the perspective that similar to the 2024 UK Election, the Conservative vote will hold up better in their existing seats than nationwide. If that is the case, they may actually hold onto this more comfortably than my model can account for. There’s also the question of what happens to the residual Labour vote, which bounced back well in 2024 but has presumably ebbed away again. The Conservatives may well hope that goes their way as an anti-SNP tactical vote, but it’s not impossible some of it goes to the SNP from fear of Reform.
Whether or not the Conservatives hold the constituency, Hoy should be relatively secure as an MSP. He’s second on the Conservatives’ South Scotland list, and barring a complete disaster (see #11 further down for such a scenario), they should easily have the votes to get him over the line.
#14: Aberdeenshire West
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Conservative
Majority: 3390 (8.1%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: North East
2026 Candidates
SNP: Fatima Joji, L3Conservative: Alexander Burnett (*C), L3Labour: Kate Blake, L6Lib Dem: Jeff Goodhall, L4Reform UK: Jo Hart, L4
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
Now things are starting to narrow a bit, as the Conservative-held Aberdeenshire West saw Alexander Burnett emerge 8.1% ahead of the SNP. With no boundary changes here, we can compare right back to when he first won the seat in 2016, when it was a much tighter 2.6% majority. What padded Burnett’s win out in 2021 was partly further collapse in the Lib Dem vote. That transfer of support has proven relatively resilient, allowing the party to hold the UK level West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine seat in 2024.
Westhill SNP councillor Fatima Joji is aiming to prevent a Burnett hat trick, and the BBS model currently puts her about 2% ahead. As with the previous seat though, that’s both so close as to be a tossup, and potentially underestimating how well the Conservative vote will hold up. Some other sources reckon this is a seat that could go to Reform, and I certainly wouldn’t go so far as to write off Jo Hart’s chances. I do lean however towards the idea they may be over-indexing past Conservative to current Reform support, and reckon the fact this area has a relatively recent Lib Dem history may limit the direct bleed to Reform.
If Burnett does lose this seat, he’s at serious risk of being ejected from Holyrood entirely. Although Conservative support in the North East is currently running high enough to proportionally justify three North East MSPs, my model shockingly only gives them one seat if the SNP sweep all 10 constituencies. Even if the proportional pressure is eased a bit elsewhere in the region, they could still only get as far as two MSPs, and Burnett is third on the list.
#13: Moray
Constituency Map
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 3164 (7.7%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: Highlands and Islands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Laura MitchellConservative: Tim Eagle (*L), L1Labour: David Blair, 8Lib Dem: Morven-May McCallum, L1Reform UK: Max Bannerman, L2Advance UK: Les DuranceAlliance to Liberate Scotland: Allan Duffy, L5
Analysis
Hopping over the border to both the next constituency and region over from the previous seat, Moray’s 7.7% majority is almost as close but this time in the SNP’s favour. Although they’ve held the Moray seat since 1999, and outgoing MSP Richard Lochhead is class of 1999, he’s not been the MSP the whole time. Originally a North East regional MSP, he was shuffled into the constituency at a 2006 by-election following the death of Margaret Ewing (who had married into the Ewing dynasty via Fergus).
The Conservatives have gone hard at this one for the past two elections, and succeeded in picking up the Westminster seat in 2017 and narrowly holding it in 2019. The SNP’s Laura Mitchell will be hoping she has more luck now than she did in 2019, as she faces off against sitting regional MSP Tim Eagle. Eagle came into Holyrood in the middle of this term to replace Donald Cameron, who took up a seat in the Lords and a post in the Scotland Office. It’s no skin off his nose if he doesn’t win this constituency though as he’s top of the list, with two of the three other 2021 Conservative MSPs standing down.
It speaks to how different Holyrood elections are to Westminster as, theoretically, the old Buckie-inclusive Westminster seat was marginally more SNP-friendly than the Buckie-exclusive Holyrood, yet it’s this one that’s not yet flipped. As with the Angus and Mearns seat we started this piece with, the Conservatives’ own collapse means it’s hard to imagine them capitalising on the SNP’s slump. Moray overall was also the closest any Scottish council area came to voting Leave in 2016, which suggests an above-average Reform vote that will further diminish the Conservatives’ prospects.
#12: Galloway and West Dumfries
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Conservative
Majority: 2635 (7.1%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: South
2026 Candidates
SNP: Emma Harper (*L), L3Conservative: Finlay Carson (*C), L3Labour: Jack McConnel (not that one), L10Lib Dem: Tracey Warman, L7Reform UK: Senga Beresford, L3
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
Now, you might not think that the 7.1% for Galloway and West Dumfries is all that much closer than the 9.9% in Dumfriesshire and sure, mathematically, you’d be correct. However, this is a seat with a very different character that could make it a significantly easier gain for the SNP’s Emma Harper, one of just two regional MSPs the party elected nationwide in 2021.
Let’s start with the smaller aspect of this: the Greens stood in this constituency in 2021, but I assume they aren’t this time around. I would describe their share last time as “paltry” but it’s still a share we can expect to largely flow the SNP’s way. Given the current state of play, the SNP can hardly sneeze at an extra 1-2% of the vote. The bigger contributor though is, perhaps unsurprisingly, Reform.
Whilst my model doesn’t expect a vastly better Reform performance here, that’s a function of them never having stood in constituencies before and their 2021 list result being practically zero. Demographically speaking this is a very, very good seat for Reform (though candidate Senga Beresford has been one of several on the wrong side of some recent press coverage), as it has a large, quite deprived town in the form of Stranraer, plus a lot of smaller fishing villages to boot. A November by-election in Stranraer, although won by the Conservatives after transfers, was both the first time Reform won the most (first preference) votes at an election in Scotland, and is also their highest vote share yet.
That may worry the Conservatives’ Finlay Carson, despite a much-improved list ranking: in 2021 he’d been sunk to 7th place, making it imperative that he held the constituency. He’s ranked third this time, but an SNP near-sweep of the South region could still block a third Conservative MSP. On the other hand, that makes this seat a potential nightmare scenario for Craig Hoy: in the unlikely event the party fall below around 16% on the list vote and lose Dumfriesshire but hold this seat, Hoy drops out. Emphasis though on “nightmare” and “unlikely”!
#11: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 2591 (7.0%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: Highlands and Islands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Maree Todd (*C), L1Conservative: Donald MacKenzie, L7Labour: Eva Kestner, L3Lib Dem: David GreenReform UK: Steve WelshAdvance UK: Matt Sheppard, L1Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Andrew MacDonald, L2
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
Apologies to the good people of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross for an error in my spreadsheet which meant I missed this seat upon initial publication. That’s quite embarrassing given that if you ask me I will describe this as a nailed-on Lib Dem gain from the SNP. Back in 2021 the Lib Dems made a serious run here, after they’d won the Westminster equivalent in 2017 and narrowly held it in 2019. However, given 2021 was a high water mark for the SNP’s constituency support nationwide, the Lib Dems still fell 7% short.
The SNP’s loss of support since then should be enough to flip this seat by itself, never mind that the Lib Dems are the only one of the three established Pro-Union parties unarguably polling better than last time. Throw in what is likely to be one of their traditional leaflet carpet bombing campaigns, and I find it hard to imagine that they don’t emerge victorious here. It’s important from the opposition’s perspective that they do so, as every constituency the SNP loses is a blow to its prospects of an unearned majority.
If the SNP do lose this, it’s very likely to be the end of the road for sitting MSP Maree Todd. Although she’s top of their Highlands and Islands list, they’d most likely need to lose more than just the one constituency to be in line for a compensatory list MSP. In fact, on current polling if the Lib Dems gained an additional constituency from them, they’d be in a tight scrap with Reform UK for the final list seat, and so could still lose Todd.
Regional Battleground: South Scotland
Region Map
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Notional 2021 List MSPs
1:Â Labour
2:Â Labour
3:Â Conservative
4:Â Conservative
5:Â Labour
6:Â Conservative
7: 
Green
Notional 2021 List Seat 7
South Scotland: 2026 Regional List Candidates
The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.
Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.
- Máiri McAllan (*C, Clydesdale)
- Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- Emma Harper (*L, Galloway and West Dumfries)
- Siobhian Brown (*C, Ayr)
- Katie Hagman (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley)
- John Redpath (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- Collette Stevenson (*C, East Kilbride)
- Stephen Thompson (Dumfriesshire)
- Alex Kerr (Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse)
- Allan Dorans
- Kirsty Campbell
- Ross Clark
- Rachael Hamilton (*C, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- Craig Hoy (*L, Dumfriesshire)
- Finlay Carson (*C, Galloway and West Dumfries)
- Sharon Dowey (*L, Ayr)
- Brian Whittle (*L, East Kilbride)
- Keith Cockburn (Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale)
- Julie Pirone (Clydesdale)
- James Adams (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- Tracey Clark (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley)
- Carol Mochan (*L, Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley)
- Joe Fagan (East Kilbride)
- Linda Dorward (Dumfriesshire)
- Ewan McPhee (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- Lynsey Hamilton (Clydesdale)
- Daniel Coleman (Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale)
- Kaymarie Hughes (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- Davy Russell (*C, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse)
- Brian McGinlay (Ayr)
- Jack McConnel (Galloway and West Dumfries)
- Laura Moodie
- Ann McGuinness
- Dominic Ashmole
- Neil MacKinnon
- Barbra Harvie
- Cameron Garrett
- Tim Clancey
- Tom Kerr
- Korin Matthew Vallance
- Duncan Dunlop (Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale)
- Ray Georgeson (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- Aisha Mir
- Richard Brodie (Clydesdale)
- Charlotte Olcay
- Michael Gregori (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- Tracey Warman (Galloway and West Dumfries)
- Jamie Langan (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- David Kirkwood (Dumfriesshire)
- Senga Beresford (Galloway and West Dumfries)
- Tim Kelly (East Kilbride)
- Carolyn Grant (Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale)
- Daniel Clarke (Clydesdale)
- John McNamee (Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse)
- Andrew Russell (Ayr)
- Andrew Scott (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley)
- Anne Millar (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- David Ballantine (Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse)
- Glen Maney
- Terry Howson (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire)
- Garry McClay (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley)
- Yvonne Lazenbury
- Maureen Johnston
- Marjorie Thompson
- Paul Adkins (Dumfriesshire)
- Muhammad Tufail (Ayr)
- Gareth Kirk
- Hamish Goldie-Scot
- Laura Shell
- Josh-Lee Witherspoon
- David Griffiths
- Gisele Skinner
- Elspeth Griffiths
- Charles McEwan
- Maxwell Dunbar
Note: Independent Green Voice are a front group for a bunch of Glasgow bampots, led by someone who was expelled from UKIP for alleged Holocaust denial. They are standing purely as a spoiler party in this election, targeting the legitimate Scottish Green Party, and their simple one candidate per region slate is further evidence of this dodgy dealing.
- Daniel Fraser
- Mark Sands
- Zoe Greenan
- Alex Creel
- Janice MacKay
- Laurie Steele
- Robert Bilcliff
- Gail Bilcliff
- Colin Sullivan
- Sean Davis (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley)
- Denise Sommervile (Ayr)
Analysis
The partly proportional nature of Holyrood means that there are potentially close races in every region, but through this series I’ll pick out some of the most interesting ones. Appropriately enough given we had a couple of constituencies from the region in this piece, this time we’re looking at South Scotland. This is a region with pretty mild constituency boundary changes, but what constituencies are in the region are transformational. Out goes East Lothian (never, before now, in a Lothians-titled region) and in comes Glasgow commuter belt East Kilbride and Hamilton. Makes absolutely no sense demographically, but the flawed nature of FPTP-based voting systems made it happen.
In 2021 terms this is highly consequential, because it pumps up the region to a total of 17 MSPs. Had the previous version had that extra MSP overall, the Greens would have won it, rather than this being the only region they didn’t get an MSP. That’s despite the fact that East Lothian was better for them than the South Lanarkshire seats, meaning the trade pulls their vote share down from 5.2% to a flat 5.0%. They’ll obviously be hoping to fill this gap for real this year, and may be in with a good shot at a decent increase in their vote share when you consider that both the Borders and Dumfries and Galloway saw them win a higher share in the 2022 local elections than in 2021, very much against the party’s typical form.
The Lib Dems are another party with South in their sights. Although they held onto a regional MSP here in 2011, they lost the seat in 2016 and support slipped further in 2021. Like the Greens, they are disadvantaged to the tune of 0.2% by the incorporation of Lanarkshire seats, though it’s worth noting they held a defecting Hamilton councillor in 2022. Although their residual support is mostly limited to the Borders seats they have a long history in, on current polling I expect a rising national tide to help get them over the line.
What could make things difficult for both parties, never mind everyone else, is the likelihood of the SNP winning several constituencies more than their fair proportional share overall. Whilst I remain convinced that Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire remains quite comfortably Conservative, if they swept the other 9 constituencies that’s still far too many. Not only could that act as a barrier to the Greens and Lib Dems, but it could knock out a third MSP for the Conservatives and Labour, and even a fourth Reform UK MSP on the upper end of their recent polling range.
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