Contents and Notes
Notes on Notional Results
Final recommendations for new Scottish Parliament boundaries were published by Boundaries Scotland on the 1st of May 2025. Whilst these must now be approved by Scottish Ministers and are not necessarily final, it is overwhelmingly likely they will be accepted. Full details of their review process can be found on their website.
Whereas for the new boundaries put in place at the 2024 UK General Election I used the notionals developed by Rallings and Thrasher, for Holyrood I have chosen to calculate my own. Following the 2022 Local Elections, I collated the most detailed dataset of results ever published (to my knowledge) for any UK election, including results down to polling district level which are exclusively available due to the machine counted nature of Sottish local elections. These have formed the basis for notional calculations.
In simple terms, if 10% of a party’s vote share in 2022 came from that part of a constituency that has moved into a new seat, a similar pattern is assumed for 2021 votes. Where parties didn’t stand in 2022 or where data is limited (think Alba especially), a flat vote across the area is assumed. There’s then some light adjustment to keep each of these moving chunks within their originally expected proportion of the overall constituency.
This process isn’t perfect, but based as it is on hyper-local electoral data, makes for a decent enough estimate. If the UK’s electoral infrastructure was more fit for the modern era, estimates wouldn’t be necessary: we’d simply use pre-existing district level data to perfectly build the new seats. Note also that due to rounding effects, some parties have a meaninglessly tiny (<5 votes) deviation from their actual national total in 2021.
You can download a spreadsheet containing the full figures for each constituency here. This includes both votes, a “just for fun” tab with hypothetical Green shares had they stood in all constituencies, and a tab showing the regional seat allocation process. You can also find the original 2021 results on the relevant pages here.
All information below including notional figures, charts and maps may be freely replicated only with full attribution to Ballot Box Scotland.
The fact that the SNP were so utterly dominant in constituencies in 2021, and the mild-to-non-existent changes in many of the seats they were run closest, means boundary changes alone do not cause any constituencies to change hands. This is similar to the boundary changes ahead of the 2024 UK General Election. Whilst all eyes are on the SNP-Labour contest, where the lines are drawn is not what will make the difference there.
However, a substantial reshaping of regional boundaries does have an effect on seat distribution. This has effectively ended up turning the Greens into the “winners” of this whole process, notionally handing them two extra seats, one in South (from the SNP) and a second in Glasgow (from Labour). These are the seats they narrowly missed out on and would have won in 2021 but for the confusion of the so-called “Independent Green Voice.”
Whole Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Notional Vote Shares per Constituency
Central Scotland and Lothians West: Summary
The previous Central Scotland region was effectively Falkirk and most of modern Lanarkshire, missing only Rutherglen (in Glasgow) and Clydesdale (in South) from the latter. In a dramatic reshaping that has required the first true modifications to region names since Holyrood was established, the new Central Scotland and Lothians West now covers almost the entire area between Scotland’s two largest cities, through absorbing West Lothian. Counterbalancing this change are two South Lanarkshire seats moving into the South region.
Changes to constituencies within the region are relatively mild. None of the five Lanarkshire constituencies which remain have had any boundary changes. Tradeoffs between the Falkirk constituencies have smoothed out the rough boundaries that previously existed, with Falkirk East becoming “and Linlithgow”. That leaves the prior Linlithgow renamed “Bathgate” and having absorbed Seafield from Almond Valley.
Although this doesn’t impact on the total number of seats won by each party, it does affect the order and security of allocation. The Greens had scraped the final regional list seat in the old Central by a mere 107 votes over Labour in 2021, but the trading in of the stronger West Lothian seats notionally gives them the 6th seat and with a much more comfortable 1995 vote padding against Labour. This also very marginally boosts the Lib Dems, making this now only their second least likely region to regain a seat within.
Central Scotland and Lothians West: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Airdrie: No boundary changes, but loses the “and Shotts” part of the name.
- Almond Valley: Loses Seafield to the new Bathgate.
- Bathgate: Renamed from Linlithgow due to losing that area, gains Seafield from the old Almond Valley.
- Falkirk East and Linlithgow: loses Carron, Carronshore and Stenhousemuir to but gains Hallglen and Lionthorn from Falkirk West.
- Falkirk West: Gains Carron, Carronshore, Stenhousemuir from but loses Hallglen and Lionthorn to the old Falkirk East.
Central Scotland and Lothians West: Constituency Maps
Central Scotland and Lothians West: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Airdrie: 
SNP
Almond Valley: SNP
Bathgate: SNP
Coatbridge and Chryston: SNP
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth: SNP
Falkirk East and Linlithgow: SNP
Falkirk West: SNP
Motherwell and Wishaw: SNP
Uddingston and Bellshill: SNP
Regional List
1: 
Labour
2: 
Conservative
3: Labour
4: Conservative
5: Labour
6: 
Green
7: Conservative
Central Scotland and Lothians West: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
Central Scotland and Lothians West: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
Edinburgh and Lothians East: Summary
Ever since Holyrood was created, there has been a Lothians region which has always been slightly misleading: it has never contained the bulk of East Lothian, or southern portions of Midlothian. With West Lothian hived off into the new Central Scotland and Lothians West, this corresponding Edinburgh and Lothians East gives a more accurate nomenclature. Yet these two regions still don’t quite contain all of Lothian as whilst it has drawn in East Lothian, it still lacks that other portion of Midlothian.
Changes to constituencies within the region include an intensive redrawing of Edinburgh seats, with only the two westernmost closely resembling prior seats even if some old names have continued on. Midlothian’s massive population growth also sees a new self-contained Midlothian North seat, which even draws a tiny fragment from the old version of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale. A renamed East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs reflects the shifting of Tranent into an expansive Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent seat.
These new boundaries don’t themselves cause any seats to change hands, but they do significantly alter the calculus in several. The truncated East Lothian is now slightly harder for Labour to win back, but the shift of Edinburgh Southern onto almost identical territory to the Westminster seat is sure to favour them once the campaign gets rolling. Meanwhile, new Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh Northern seats offer promising prospects for the Greens and Lib Dems respectively.
Regional seat ordering also changes to the Greens’ benefit, due to incoming East Lothian being stronger for them than outgoing West Lothian. The old Lothians region had seen them win their second as the 7th and final seat overall (albeit with a very comfortable over 11,000 vote margin over Labour), whereas this version gives them the 6th seat (but still around 11,000 votes away from displacement by the Conservatives this time).
Edinburgh and Lothians East: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs: Loses Tranent and Elphinstone to the new Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent, hence the longer name.
- Edinburgh Central: Current seat splits three ways: area within the Inverleith ward to new Edinburgh Northern; area within Corstorphine and Murrayfield ward to new Edinburgh North Western; remainder to new Edinburgh Central. Gains areas around Merchiston, Marchmont and Sciennes from old Edinburgh Southern.
- Edinburgh Eastern and Musselburgh: Takes area within Portobello and Craigmillar from old Edinburgh Eastern; Musselburgh, Wallyford and Whitecraig from old Midlothian North and Musselburgh, and Tranent and Elphinstone from old East Lothian.
- Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith: Takes area within Craigentinny and Duddingston ward from old Edinburgh Eastern; Leith and most of Leith Walk ward from old Edinburgh Northern and Leith.
- Edinburgh North Western: Replaces the old Edinburgh Western; loses area around Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall to new Edinburgh Northern; gains area around Murrayfield from old Edinburgh Central; gains Ratho from old Edinburgh Pentlands.
- Edinburgh Northern: Takes area within Forth and the north eastern part of Inverleith wards from old Edinburgh Northern and Leith; remainder of Inverleith ward from old Edinburgh Central; area around Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall from old Edinburgh Western.
- Edinburgh South Western: Replaces the old Edinburgh Pentlands; loses Ratho to new Edinburgh North Western; gains area around Slateford and Craiglockhart from old Edinburgh Southern; loses area around Fairmilehead to new Edinburgh Southern.
- Edinburgh Southern: Loses area around Slateford and Craiglockhart to new Edinburgh South Western; loses areas around Merchiston, Marchmont and Sciennes to new Edinburgh Central; gains area around Fairmilehead from old Edinburgh Pentlands; gains remaing bulk of Liberton and Gilmerton ward from old Edinburgh Eastern.
- Midlothian North: Loses Musselburgh to new Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent; gains Newtongrange from old Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.
Edinburgh and Lothians East: Constituency Maps
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs: SNP
Edinburgh Central: SNP
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent: SNP
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith: SNP
Edinburgh North Western: 
Lib Dem
Edinburgh Northern: SNP
Edinburgh South Western: SNP
Edinburgh Southern: Labour
Midlothian North: SNP
Regional List
1: Conservative
2: Green
3: Conservative
4: Labour
5: Conservative
6: Green
7: Labour
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
Glasgow: Summary
Glasgow has some of the most dramatic changes anywhere in the country, driven by a continuing rebalancing of Scotland’s population towards the east coast. The previous version of the region was effectively pre-1995 Glasgow City – the current city council plus the Rutherglen and Cambuslang areas – and Blantyre.
What started out justifying 10 constituencies in 1999 dropped to 9 in 2011, and now it’s reduced to 8. That has necessitated a substantial reshaping of seats within the city, to all intents and purposes eliminating seats like Glasgow Kelvin and Glasgow Pollok, even if those remain part of the name of new seats. Yet as the city is slightly too big to fit in 8 constituencies, it loses the Cardonald area to the West region. This proves to be a highly meaningful change.
Under the 2021 boundaries the last two seats were closely fought between three parties, with the Greens placing around 913 votes short of the Conservative (who won the 7th and final regional seat) and 930 short of Labour (who won the 6th). Cardonald is an above-average area for Labour (circa 27% versus their 24% region-wide) and massively below-average for the Greens (6% vs 12%), and therefore the Greens notionally snipe Labour for the final seat on the new boundaries, if only by a mere 80 votes or so.
Glasgow: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Glasgow Anniesland: Gains area around Thornwood from old Glasgow Kelvin; loses area around Claythorn to new Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill.
- Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston: Takes area of Shettleston, most of Baillieston and the Barlanark portion of East Centre wards from old Glasgow Shettleston; remainder of Baillieston and East Centre wards from old Glasgow Provan.
- Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok: Takes area of Greater Pollok wards from old Glasgow Pollok; area of Newlands and Auldburn and the Linn wards from old Glasgow Cathcart.
- Glasgow Central: Takes area of Anderston, City and Yorkhill ward from old Glasgow Kelvin; Calton ward from old Glasgow Shettleston; eastern half of Govan ward from old Glasgow Southside; western half of Govan ward from old Glasgow Pollok.
- Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn: Takes areas around Germiston, Springburn, Sighthill, Possilpark, Parkhouse and Milton from old Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn; area of North East ward plus areas around Barmulloch, Robroyston and Dennistoun from old Glasgow Provan; area around Drygate from old Glasgow Kelvin.
- Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill: Takes area around Claythorn from old Glasgow Anniesland; Hillhead ward and area around Hyndland, Dowanhill and Partick from old Glasgow Kelvin; area around Kelvindale, Maryhill, Ruchill, Lambhill and Summerston from old Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn.
- Glasgow Southside: Loses eastern portion of Govan ward to new Glasgow Central; gains Craigton area from old Glasgow Pollok; gains remaining area of Langside ward from old Glasgow Cathcart.
- Rutherglen and Cambuslang: No meaningful boundary changes, but name expanded from simply “Rutherglen.”
Glasgow: Constituency Maps
Glasgow: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Glasgow Anniesland: SNP
Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston: SNP
Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok: SNP
Glasgow Central: SNP
Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn: SNP
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill: SNP
Glasgow Southside: SNP
Rutherglen and Cambuslang: SNP
Regional List
1: Labour
2: Conservative
3: Green
4: Labour
5: Labour
6: Conservative
7: Green
Glasgow: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
Glasgow: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
Highlands and Islands: Summary
The three northernmost regions all have identical stories: there are no changes to the external boundaries of the region, and only one minor adjustment to internal boundaries. Here, Inverness and Nairn loses the Grantown-on-Spey area to Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch. Highlands and Islands therefore continues to cover Highland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Orkney and Shetland in their entirety, Argyll and Bute barring its historic Dunbartonshire chunk, and Moray less the Buckie to Cullen stretch.
Highlands and Islands: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Inverness and Nairn: Loses area around Grantown on Spey to new Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.
- Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch: Gains area around Grantown on Spey from old Inverness and Nairn.
Highlands and Islands: Constituency Maps
Highlands and Islands: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Argyll and Bute: SNP
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross: SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar: SNP
Inverness and Nairn: SNP
Moray: SNP
Orkney Islands: Lib Dem
Shetland Islands: Lib Dem
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch: SNP
Regional List
1: Conservative
2: Conservative
3: Labour
4: Conservative
5: Green
6: Conservative
7: SNP
Highlands and Islands: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
Highlands and Islands: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
Mid Scotland and Fife: Summary
The three northernmost regions all have identical stories: there are no changes to the external boundaries of the region, and only one minor adjustment to internal boundaries. Here, Stirling loses the areas north of the Forth (Cornton and Causewayhead) to Clackmannanshire and Dunblane. Mid Scotland and Fife therefore continues to cover Clackmannanshire, Fife, Perth and Kinross, and Stirling in their entirety.
Mid Scotland and Fife: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Clackmannanshire and Dunblane: Gains area around Cornton, Causewayhead and Cambuskenneth from old Stirling.
- Fife North East: No boundary changes, but order of name reversed from North East Fife.
- Stirling: Loses area around Cornton, Causewayhead and Cambuskenneth to new Clackmannanshire and Dunblane.
Mid Scotland and Fife: Constituency Maps
Mid Scotland and Fife: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane: SNP
Cowdenbeath: SNP
Dunfermline: SNP
Fife North East: Lib Dem
Kirkcaldy: SNP
Mid Fife and Glenrothes: SNP
Perthshire North: SNP
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire: SNP
Stirling: SNP
Regional List
1: Conservative
2: Conservative
3: Labour
4: Green
5: Conservative
6: Labour
7: Conservative
Mid Scotland and Fife: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
Mid Scotland and Fife: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
North East Scotland: Summary
The three northernmost regions all have identical stories: there are no changes to the external boundaries of the region, and only one minor adjustment to internal boundaries. Here, Aberdeenshire East loses the Strichen, New Pitsligo and Fetterangus areas to Banffshire and Buchan Coast. North East Scotland therefore continues to cover Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Angus and Dundee in their entirety, plus the Buckie to Cullen stretch of Moray.
As a note of curiosity, the late leader of Alba and former First Minister Alex Salmond was a Strichen resident for many years until he passed, and this moves his former home into his party’s strongest patch. Having fallen far short in 2021, it’s far from likely that Alba will be able to win a seat in this region without their central figure.
North East Scotland: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Aberdeenshire East: Loses area around New Pitsligo, Strichen, New Leeds and Fetterangus to new Banffshire and Buchan Coast.
- Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine: No boundary changes, but Aberdeen section of name changed from Aberdeen South.
- Banffshire and Buchan Coast: Gains area around New Pitsligo, Strichen, New Leeds and Fetterangus from old Aberdeenshire East.
North East Scotland: Constituency Maps
North East Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Aberdeen Central: SNP
Aberdeenshire Deeside and North Kincardine: SNP
Aberdeen Donside: SNP
Aberdeenshire East: SNP
Aberdeenshire West: Conservative
Angus North and Mearns: SNP
Angus South: SNP
Banffshire and Buchan Coast: SNP
Dundee City East: SNP
Dundee City West: SNP
Regional List
1: Conservative
2: Labour
3: Conservative
4: Conservative
5: Green
6: Conservative
7: Labour
North East Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
North East Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
South Scotland: Summary
As it existed until now, the South Scotland region was largely rural, covering the whole of both East and South Ayrshire, plus the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, East Lothian sans Musselburgh, the rural Clydesdale part of South Lanarkshire, and a southern chunk of Midlothian most notably including Penicuik. Whilst it didn’t completely lack large towns, those were effectively independent centres of population.
Changes between constituencies within this region are relatively marginal, amounting to just two small tweaks. Both of these actually shift fragments into other regions. Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale passes Newtongrange into the new Midlothian North and thus into Edinburgh and Lothians East. Meanwhile the Stewarton, Kilmaurs and Dunlop segment of Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley is given over to Cunninghame South in the West region.
The regional shape however changes significantly, even on top of those small handovers. East Lothian has finally been removed from its confusing Southern abode, and in its place have come East Kilbride and Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse from the previous Central region. These two big Glasgow commuter belt towns notably shift the demographic balance of the region and do not, in my view, fit at all. However, South Lanarkshire Council were content with this outcome, and if this hadn’t happened, other weirdness would have. The joys of an FPTP-rooted voting system.
The combined effect of the changes here is surprising. East Lothian was easily the strongest Green seat in the previous version of this region, and its replacement with two Lanarkshire seats trims the Green vote share down a touch. Given they’d missed out on a national sweep completing seat here by a mere 115 votes in 2021, you might have assumed the Green goose cooked. However the expansion to a 10 constituency region marginally improves proportionality, and the Greens take the final seat with a 616 vote advantage over the SNP.
South Scotland: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley: Loses area around Stewarton and Dunlop to new Cunninghame South.
- Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale: Loses Newtongrange to new Midlothian North.
South Scotland: Constituency Maps
South Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Ayr: SNP
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley: SNP
Clydesdale: SNP
Dumfriesshire: Conservative
East Kilbride: SNP
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire: Conservative
Galloway and West Dumfries: Conservative
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse: SNP
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley: SNP
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale: SNP
Regional List
1: Labour
2: Labour
3: Conservative
4: Conservative
5: Labour
6: Conservative
7: Green
South Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Constituency Vote)
South Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Regional Vote)
West Scotland: Summary
West Scotland strikes a middle ground between the dramatically changed regions and those almost untouched. This had previously been a relatively neat region of modern Dunbartonshire (plus the historic portion of that county around Helensburgh, now in Argyll and Bute), modern Renfrewshire (Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire) and North Ayrshire. It has now nibbled a little on Glasgow and East Ayrshire to give a slightly different outline.
Within the region, it’s Renfrewshire that has been massively shaken up, whilst Dunbartonshire sits functionally unchanged and North Ayrshire only lightly snacks on Stewarton. Beyond the new Renfrewshire North and Cardonald seat, the other Renfrewshire seats barring Eastwood are substantially redrawn, including capturing Inverclyde entirely within one constituency.
The overall changes here are so mild as to have no practical effect on seat distribution. Of the five regions that have changes to their external boundaries, this is the only one that has no positives for the Greens, adding some relatively weak portions. Even so, those are so marginal that it doesn’t even knock a full 0.1% of their tally, leaving them quite secure.
“Quite secure” is, in theory, the case for all list seats. To unseat the Conservatives as the 7th and final regional list seat winner would have required about 15,000 additional Green votes, 19,000 Labour, or a whopping 31,000 for the SNP.
West Scotland: Detail of Constituency Boundary Changes
- Inverclyde: Gains area around Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village from old Renfrewshire North and West.
- Paisley: Gains area around Gallowhill and the airport from old Renfrewshire North and West; loses small area around the Phoenix Retail Park to new Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley.
- Renfrewshire North and Cardonald: Replaces Renfrewshire North and West; loses area around Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village to new Inverclyde; loses area around Bridge of Weir, Houston and northern Crosslee to new Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley; loses area around Gallowhill and airport to new Paisley; gains Cardonald ward from old Glasgow Pollok.
- Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley: Replaces Renfrewshire South; gains area around Bridge of Weir, Houston and northern Crosslee from old Renfrewshire North and West; gains small area around the Phoenix Retail Park from old Paisley.
West Scotland: Constituency Maps
West Scotland: 2021 Notionals (Seat Winners)
Constituency
Clydebank and Milngavie: SNP
Cunninghame North: SNP
Cunninghame South: SNP
Dumbarton: Labour
Eastwood: Conservative
Inverclyde: SNP
Paisley: SNP
Renfrewshire North and Cardonald: SNP
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley: SNP
Strathkelvin and Bearsden: SNP
Regional List
1: Labour
2: Conservative
3: Labour
4: Conservative
5: Green
6: Labour
7: Conservative