As the 2026 Scottish Parliament approaches, keep up to date with all the latest polling and analysis on Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page!
With just a few weeks left to go until the big day, it’s time for the regular Ballot Box Battlegrounds series! Over this week, we’ll be taking a look at every constituency in Scotland considered marginal in 2021 terms – i.e. where the winner’s majority is below 10%. More than at any Holyrood election up until now, constituency winners really matter, because the SNP are expected to win so many more than their “ideal” proportional share if the voting system was working perfectly.
I’ve also picked out two bonus rounds worth of seats that are worth keeping an eye on even though they aren’t marginal. Each entry in the series will also look over one of the regions. Although that means three regions will go un-Battlegrounded, remember I’ve done regional previews (which also include some thoughts on every constituency) which are available here.
Note that for constituencies and regions impacted by boundary changes, I’m using my own notional calculations for 2021 results on the new boundaries. The reason we compare with 2021 rather than current projections is simple: even with boundary changes, we can be relatively sure what those results were. By contrast, projecting constituency results from national polling is always subject to substantial margins of error. Better then to compare with a known quantity than a rough and highly changeable estimate of current support.
That does however mean the first three entries in this series are surprisingly light on prospective Labour constituencies, and very heavy on marginals featuring strong Conservatives. Don’t worry though, because that’s exactly what the bonus rounds are for!
#10: Shetland Islands
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: 
Lib Dem
Majority: 806 (6.8%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: Highlands and Islands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Hannah Goodlad, L4
Conservative: Douglas Barnett, L8
Labour: John Erskine, L4
Green: Alex Armitage, L5Lib Dem: Emma Macdonald
Reform UK: Vic Currie, L1
Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Brian Nugent, L1
Independent: Peter Tait
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
We start this entry with a little bit of break in the pattern of SNP/Conservative marginals, with a thus-far consistently Lib Dem seat. They’ve held this constituency since the parliament was set up, and they’ve held the equivalent UK seat since the 50’s. This was absolute diehard Lib Dem territory traditionally speaking, even though the council is largely non-partisan. There is nonetheless movement between Independent and Lib Dem status in the isles. Retiring MSP Beatrice Wishart was a councillor before winning the 2019 by-election, and this time around the Lib Dem candidate is council leader, Emma Macdonald.
“Was absolute diehard Lib Dem territory” is the key phrase. Last election this seat fell into marginal status for the first time ever, with just 6.8% separating winner from challenger. In theory though, given the SNP couldn’t quite flip this when at the height of their constituency vote power in 2021, it seems fanciful they’d better that this time around. That’s even more so given local Green councillor Alex Armitage is standing. He achieved a respectable 9.9% in the joint Orkney and Shetland seat in the 2024 UK election. We can reasonably assume that was over 10% in Shetland itself, and any repeat performance will come largely at the SNP’s expense.
However, I’ve heard on the grapevine that the Lib Dems are a little spooked here, given that the current council is apparently very unpopular, and naturally the leader is most identified with it. Presumably, then, they’d be worried about losing to the SNP. I’m taking that with, err, rather a lot of salt, but never say never, I guess? Note that in 2021 the SNP did actually place first on the list vote, so perhaps it’s not totally outlandish to imagine a narrow constituency victory? If they did somehow pull this off, that would be a massive help towards winning a majority that I otherwise consider highly likely to elude them.
#9: Eastwood
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Conservative
Majority: 2216 (5.2%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: West
2026 Candidates
SNP: Kirsten Oswald, L2Conservative: Jackson Carlaw (*C), L2Labour: Kayleigh Quinn, L6Lib Dem: Euan DavidsonReform UK: John Mooney
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
A unique entry in this series, Eastwood is the only urban Central Belt seat the Conservatives have won since they lost Edinburgh Pentlands in 2011 (unless you argue Ayr into the Central Belt, in which case it’s the only one they won in 2021). They gained it from Labour in 2016, as a prelude to temporarily gaining the UK East Renfrewshire seat in 2017. Whilst that constituency was regained by the SNP in 2019, former (briefly) leader of the Scottish Conservatives Jackson Carlaw held this one a couple of years later on a marginally increased majority of 5.2%.
It could be a real challenge for him to repeat that this time. Labour pulled off a mighty swing to gain the UK seat in 2024, and it’s possible that despite their woes some of that local shift remains in place. “Remain” is a great segue to point out that this is a great example of a seat where you can’t simply map past Conservative support to Reform. This is a leafy, affluent suburb, the kind of place where people work in quite prestigious or at least well paid fields and would like lower taxes but also actually quite like immigrants and LGBT people. They also voted overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU in 2016.
The socially liberal bent of this electorate is perhaps embodied by Carlaw voting against his party’s majorities to vote in favour of marriage equality in 2014, then (in a much smaller minority) Gender Recognition Reform in 2023. That’s also why there may be some poetic justice in the worst nightmare scenario for the Scottish Conservatives: that Carlaw does in fact hold this seat in an election where it’s entirely likely the Conservatives are only proportionally due one MSP in the West Scotland region.
If he does, that could eject party leader and enthusiastic culture warrior Russell Findlay, who has continued Douglas Ross’ work in stuffing the last vestiges of Davidsonian Toryism through the shredder. No leader of the Big Four Westminster parties had yet lost their seat at a Holyrood election, so Findlay would make some unenviable history were this to occur. Whisper it quietly, but some in the SNP might be apologetically okay if former MP Kirsten Oswald didn’t make it to Holyrood if it meant blocking Findlay. His skin may however be saved by just how badly his party has collapsed, so he’s probably odds-on to return to rule over the ashes.
One final thing worth noting: on a purely boundary basis, I’m extremely unhappy this seat escaped the changes unscathed. In the initial proposals it had been split, with a large portion going into a “Glasgow Priesthill and Giffnock” seat. Being extremely blunt, local snobs who thought themselves too good to be bolted onto a Glasgow seat then kicked up enough of a stink to save it. So instead of a Glasgow region which contains the whole city plus some adjoining suburbs, we ended up with the Glasgow region we now have that lacks Cardonald and surrounds instead. Fantastic work guys! Really great stuff! Love to have First Past the Post!
#8: Aberdeenshire East
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 1997 (5.1%)
Boundary Changes: Loses area around New Pitsligo, Strichen, New Leeds and Fetterangus to new Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Region: North East
2026 Candidates
SNP: Gillian Martin (*C), L2Conservative: Douglas Lumsden (*L), L2Labour: Janine Langler, L8Lib Dem: David Evans, L7Reform UK: John Crawley, L6
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
We’re 8 constituencies into this series and this is the first time we’ve actually got boundary changes! Don’t get too excited about them though, as they are extremely minor, a handful of tiny villages which get shunted into the neighbouring Banffshire and Buchan Coast. This has the effect of increasing the SNP’s majority over the Conservatives by a whopping half a percentage point, up to 5.1%. As with other such seats, in a contest between “party that has lost about a quarter of its support nationwide and is the local incumbent” and “party that has lost about half its support”, it’s probably sitting MSP Gillian Martin that has the edge.
Her Conservative opponent Douglas Lumsden is in an odd place, in that he’s second on the North East list and therefore should be assured a seat even if he misses the constituency. As I explain in the regional section at the end though, the SNP could be putting an unbelievable amount of pressure on proportionality in the North East. At its most extreme that has locked the Conservatives on one MSP even with the votes for three, which obviously does Lumsden in. Even if they squeak a second MSP, if that’s the Aberdeenshire West constituency, again Lumsden is out.
How much Reform eat into the Conservative share here will also be interesting. I remain of the view that just like the other Aberdeenshire seat, the Conservative vote will hold up a little better than nationally, and Reform will not win the seat, even with Ellon councillor John Crawley on the ballot. Again, we’re talking historic farming and Lib Dem voting Aberdeenshire, rather than deprived urban or coastal areas. I could be wrong, but whilst I expect an above-average Reform share, I can’t see them winning.
#7: Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 1948 (4.4%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: Mid Scotland and Fife
2026 Candidates
SNP: Jim Fairlie (*C), L5Conservative: Roz McCall (*L), L3Labour: Luke Thomson, L9Lib Dem: Amanda Clark, L4Reform UK: Helen McDade, L1
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
We’re getting into really marginal territory now, as the SNP held this half of their Perthshire heartlands by just 4.4% in 2021 following the retirement of 1999 MSP (and 1995 by-election MP) Roseanna Cunningham. That was such a small margin that the fact the Greens came third regionally across the council area meant the Conservatives narrowly came tops on the list vote.
As with other SNP-held seats where the Conservatives were 2021 challengers, my assumption is the SNP hold on. If they somehow didn’t, Jim Fairlie would be ejected from Holyrood entirely, as there’s no way they’d be due a compensating list seat: they were already one over their fair allocation in 2021. That would be the only thing that could save the Conservatives’ Roz McCall, who was drafted in midway through last term to replace Dean Lockhart. At third on the list, she’s a guaranteed goner otherwise.
One thing I’d be keeping an eye on here is what happens with regional shares. We can assume that given Reform’s rise, the Greens won’t replace their surprising third place, but I’m also interested to see how the Lib Dems do. They have some strength at local level in this area, particularly Kinross-shire but they also did very well in a Strathallan by-election in 2024, winning after transfers. This was their third best regional share in Mid and Fife in 2021 (after North East Fife and Dunfermline), so if they are on track for a second MSP via the list, they’ll want solid growth here.
#6: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 1671 (4.3%)
Boundary Changes: No boundary changes, but Aberdeen section of name changed from Aberdeen South
Region: North East
2026 Candidates
SNP: Stephen Flynn, L1Conservative: Liam Kerr (*L), L1Labour: Matthew Lee, L7Lib Dem: Mel Sullivan, L5Reform UK: Duncan Massey, L1Independent: Iris Leask, L1
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
You could be forgiven for assuming there must be some boundary changes here, given the new formulation of the name, but no, this is just Aberdeen South and North Kincardine but with “Deeside” subbed in for “South” in the name. Same seat, same 4.3% majority for the SNP. If you’ve read the whole series thus far, you may be unsurprised to see me say that in a contest between two badly wounded parties, it’s the incumbent that would be favoured. Even so, this is a high stakes seat for the SNP, as their Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn has decided to make the jump to Holyrood.
There is some anticipation of the arrival of a major talent, though in the interests of keeping MSPs grounded, I might challenge that. Number one, that was the assumption vis a vis Angus Robertson, another former Westminster leader. He has… not made a splash, is the non-partisan way to put it.
Number two, Flynn managed to make a big song and dance about standing for Holyrood and not vacating his Westminster seat for his final three years at the exact moment the Scottish Parliament was discussing an electoral reform bill that could be amended, and then was, to ban double-jobbing. Holyrood was the only devolved legislature that was still possible in and so closing the loophole made sense, but Flynn managed to make himself the poster boy for it. Not the cleverest move, it has to be said.
Conservative Liam Kerr meanwhile has placed top of his party’s regional list and therefore can be pretty well assured of re-election regardless. Whilst the worst case scenario in the North East has only turned up one MSP for the Conservatives, I’d broadly expect that if Alexander Burnett holds on to Aberdeenshire West, that unblocks the proportionality enough that there’s a Conservative list MSP as well, which would then be Kerr.
Regional Battleground: North East Scotland
Region Map
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
2021 List MSPs
1: Conservative
2: Labour
3: Conservative
4: Conservative
5: Green
6: Conservative
7: Labour
Notional 2021 List Seat 7
North East Scotland: 2026 Regional List Candidates
The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.
Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.
- Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
- Gillian Martin (*C, Aberdeenshire East)
- Fatima Joji (Aberdeenshire West)
- Christian Allard
- Dawn Black (Angus North and Mearns)
- Miranda Radley
- Michael Hutchison
- Liam Kerr (*L, Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
- Douglas Lumsden (*L, Aberdeenshire East)
- Alexander Burnett (*C, Aberdeenshire West)
- James Adams (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
- Stewart Whyte (Aberdeen Central)
- Hannah Powell (Aberdeen Donside)
- Tracey Smith (Angus North and Mearns)
- Jack Cruickshanks (Dundee City East)
- Abi Brooks (Dundee City West)
- Michael Marra (*L, Dundee City West)
- Heather Doran (Angus South)
- Lynn Thomson (Aberdeen Donside)
- Cheryl-Ann Cruikshank (Dundee City East)
- Simon Watson (Angus North and Mearns)
- Kate Blake (Aberdeenshire West)
- Matthew Lee (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
- Janine Langler (Aberdeenshire East)
- Brooke Ritchie (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
- Maggie Chapman (*L)
- Esme Houston
- William Linegar
- Sylvia Hardie
- Charlotte Horne
- Remi Salvan
- Fah Asif
- Gordon Miller
Note: the originally selected top candidate, Guy Ingerson, was removed as an approved candidate shortly before nominations closed.
- Yi-pei Chou Turvey (Aberdeen Central)
- Michael Turvey (Aberdeen Donside)
- Tanvir Ahmad (Dundee City East)
- Jeff Goodhall (Aberdeenshire West)
- Mel Sullivan (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
- Martyn Knights (Angus North and Mearns)
- David Evans (Aberdeenshire East)
- Duncan Massey (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
- Mark Simpson (Dundee City East)
- Claudia Leith (Aberdeen Donside)
- Jo Hart (Aberdeenshire West)
- Conrad Ritchie (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
- John Crawley (Aberdeenshire East)
- Laurie Carnie (Angus North and Mearns)
- Arthur Keith (Dundee City West)
- Bill Reid (Angus South)
- Sarah Hashim
- Stephen Bowie (Aberdeen Donside)
- Konrad Rekas
- Brett Morrison
- Ronald Hardie
- Mark Mair
- Euan Morrice
- Susan Ettle
- Dave Bestwick
- Joanna Moore
- Allan Petrie
- Richard Tallach
Note: Independent Green Voice are a front group for a bunch of Glasgow bampots, led by someone who was expelled from UKIP for alleged Holocaust denial. They are standing purely as a spoiler party in this election, targeting the legitimate Scottish Green Party, and their simple one candidate per region slate is further evidence of this dodgy dealing.
- Kenny Ross
- Brian Stewart
- Peter Ashby
- Iris Leask
- Marie Boulton
Analysis
The partly proportional nature of Holyrood means that there are potentially close races in every region, but through this series I’ll pick out some of the most interesting ones. The North East would be an obvious one to highlight regardless, given fully one-third of the 15 classical marginals are within this region; in other words, half of the North East’s 10 constituencies are marginal. It’s become even more of a battleground this time around those because that marginality is overwhelmingly in the SNP’s favour.
Anyone who has been paying any attention to Holyrood polling will have seen that the SNP are expected to hold most of their current MSPs despite a huge dip in their support. At the time of writing, the FPTP element is anticipated in my model to hand the SNP 19 MSPs more than their fair share were AMS working appropriately. This region is where this effect is typically most strongly felt, with a potential 4-5 seat advantage to the SNP if they were to win every constituency.
That prospect is absolutely shattering for the other parties. Take the Greens for example. Having won the 5th regional seat in 2021 and typically polling better than then, we should expect them to be safe and secure here. Instead, they have sometimes hit as much as 9% in my model and still been denied an MSP. The same is true of the Lib Dems, who lost their last regional MSP here in 2021 so badly that there’d have been a fifth Conservative in the queue before their turn. Like the Greens my model has put them on as much as 9% of the vote but occasionally without an MSP.
Most affected in total seat numbers though could be the Conservatives and Reform. I’ve noted a couple of times through this series so far that sometimes the Conservatives only come out with a single MSP in the North East in my model despite having the votes to justify 3. Reform likewise tend to miss out on two MSPs they are due. Labour are more akin to the smaller parties than the big ones in this region, and could end up with too few votes to justify a second seat anyway, even if the SNP weren’t warping proportionality.
Most of the other parties wouldn’t want to admit it, but all eyes may therefore be on two constituencies: Aberdeenshire West and Banffshire and Buchan Coast. If the Conservatives can hold the former and either they or Reform gain the latter, that unblocks two of the list seats to go to parties that have actually fairly earned votes for them. It’s not impossible that the gateway to additional maximally socially liberal MSPs in the region (whether that’s a Green or Lib Dem or both) therefore goes through these socially conservative parties.
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