Region Overview

Most of this region is made up of the two highly urbanised counties to the north and west of Glasgow – Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire. In Council terms that means the area fully incorporates Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire. In addition, it also includes the portion of Argyll and Bute around Helensburgh which is historically in Dunbartonshire, plus the entirety of North Ayrshire. When first created in 1999, the region didn’t include the area around Irvine in North Ayrshire.

With a mixture of previously industrialised towns and affluent suburbs, Conservative success lasted until the late 20th Century here in a way it didn’t in other portions of the western Central Belt. In particular, they consistently held the seat of Eastwood and tended to be strong in the western portion of Renfrewshire, in Cunninghame North, and in the Strathkelvin area.

Labour generally held the other seats, which had much more of the working class character, though the SNP very narrowly won the East Dunbartonshire seat in the second 1974 election. When the Conservatives were swept out of Scotland in 1997, Labour would win every seat in this part of the country. Though it wouldn’t bear fruit until boundary changes in 2005 which were never replicated at Holyrood, the Liberal Democrats also began to build a base in the Bearsden and Milngavie portion of East Dunbartonshire.

Labour maintained their constituency dominance into the first Holyrood election, sweeping all nine constituencies. The regional seats then followed a neat pattern of four for the SNP, two for the Conservatives, and one for the Lib Dems.


9 Labour (all Constituency)
4 SNP (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

When the Rainbow Parliament came to the West of Scotland, it did so with something very rare indeed in UK politics – an Independent victory in an FPTP constituency, when Dr Jean Turner won Strathkelvin and Bearsden on a platform to save nearby Stobhill Hospital. She’d stood with much less success, though still placing second, in a 2001 by-election there. In addition to Dr Turner, the SNP lost one of their seats to the SSP.


8 Labour (all Constituency)
3 SNP (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)
1 SSP (Regional)
1 Independent (Jean Turner, Strathkelvin and Bearsden)

In line with the almost complete reversion to the traditional party norm across Scotland in 2007, the SSP lost their list seat and Labour regained Strathkelvin and Bearsden from Dr Turner. However, they didn’t return to a clean sweep of constituencies, as the SNP gained the Cunninghame North seat from them. The regional seats then fell exactly as they had in 1999, with four SNP, two Conservative, and 1 Lib Dem.


8 Labour (all Constituency)
5 SNP (4 Regional, 1 Constituency)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

As part of their surprise majority victory at this election, the SNP picked up six seats in the slightly expanded region. That left Labour with just four, in Dumbarton, Eastwood, Renfrewshire South, and Greenock and Inverclyde. Thanks to the Lib Dems haemorrhaging votes across the country, Labour were able to mostly make up for their losses by picking up three regional seats, leaving two apiece to go to the SNP and Conservatives.


8 SNP (6 Constituency, 2 Regional)
7 Labour (4 Constituency, 3 Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)

Constituencies continued to churn at the last election, as Labour lost three of their remaining constituencies, narrowly holding onto Dumbarton. Two of those seats went to the SNP, whilst Eastwood went to the Conservatives, returning to its pre-1997 shade. SNP constituency success meant they didn’t need their two regional seats to make up proportionality anymore, and a near tie between Labour and the Conservatives saw them win three each. The Greens then nabbed the last seat, electing 21 year old Ross Greer as the youngest ever MSP.


8 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
4 Conservative (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
1 Green (Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

Labour’s poor polling would appear to put Dumbarton in reach for the SNP, given there were just 109 votes in it last time. Don’t write Jackie Baillie off, however, as she’s twice already held this seat in the face of national swings that flipped safer seats than hers. Similarly, the Conservative margin in Eastwood isn’t massive, but will likely be more resistant then elsewhere to erosion.

In terms of list seats, both the Greens and Lib Dems may be hoping that the SNP don’t gain those constituencies. Had the SNP won either last time, the Greens wouldn’t have won the seat they were proportionally entitled to (which happened to them here in 2003) due to the overhang.

This is one of the ways AMS is partly rather than fully proportional, though polling does indicate the Greens should be rather more secure this time around. It’s currently looking like a bit of a coin flip as to whether Labour or the Conservatives shed a seat overall in this region, even if they hold their constituencies.

The Lib Dems weren’t in the running last time, but this is the region with their best shot at increasing their MSP count, especially if they can translate still strong support in the Westminster East Dunbartonshire constituency to Holyrood list votes. Like the Greens, they would be negatively impacted by SNP overhang, and it’s not impossible they’ll win enough votes for a seat in principle but not once constituency seats are allocated.

Region Map

Overall Regional Result 2016

Regional List Vote and MSPs Elected


#1: Labour - Neil Bibby
#2: Conservative - Jamie Greene
#3: Labour - Mary Fee
#4: Conservative - Maurice Golden
#5: Labour - Ken Macintosh
#6: Conservative - Maurice Corry
#7: Green - Ross Greer

Constituency Vote

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Total MSPs Elected


8 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
4 Conservative (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
1 Green (Regional)

Changes Since 2016

Labour Regional MSP Ken Macintosh was elected Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament immediately after the election. By convention, the Presiding Officer gives up their party affiliation in order to be an impartial chair .

SNP Constituency MSP for Renfrewshire North and West Derek Mackay was suspended from the party in February 2020 following revelations of inappropriate conduct. He has since continued to sit as an Independent .

Regional List Candidates 2021

  1. Michelle Campbell
  2. Stuart McMillan
  3. Kenny Gibson
  4. Rona Mackay
  5. Colm Merrick
  6. Lorna Douglas
  7. Annette Ireland
  8. Debra Torrance
  9. Gavin Lundy
  10. Jonathan McColl
  11. Daniel Kennedy
  1. Jackson Carlaw
  2. Russell Findlay
  3. Jamie Greene
  4. Pam Gosal
  5. Julie Pirone
  6. Andrew Polson
  7. Derek Stillie
  8. Maurice Corry
  9. Caroline Hollins
  10. David Rocks
  1. Jackie Baillie
  2. Neil Bibby
  3. Katy Clark
  4. Paul O’Kane
  5. Johanna Baxter
  6. Matt Kerr
  7. Francesca Brennan
  8. Douglas McAllister
  9. Katie Pragnell
  10. Gurpreet Singh Johal
  11. Ed Grady
  12. Nairn McDonald
  1. Ross Greer
  2. Carolynn Scrimgeour
  3. Scott Bevan
  4. Erin Crawley
  5. Ross Collins
  6. Emma Sheppard
  7. Charley O’Hear
  1. Katy Gordon
  2. Jacci Stoyle
  3. Susan Murray
  4. Ross Stalker
  5. Rod Ackland
  6. Eileen McCartin
  7. Ruby Kirkwood
  1. Chris McEleny
  2. Caroline McAllister
  3. Ellen McMaster
  4. Delia Henry
  1. David Griffiths
  2. Catherine McCall
  3. Paul McLafferty
  4. Senol Jason Ali
  5. Calum Robertson
  6. Rhona Cameron
  7. Robert Aikman
  1. Jill McGowan
  2. Maria Smith
  3. Grant Stirling
  4. Mark Turnbull
  1. John McCallum
  2. Wayne Darnell
  3. Peter Sievwright
  4. Martyn Greene
  1. Liam McKechnie
  2. Martin Bell
  3. Matthew Lynch
  4. Mary Toal
  5. Cecilia Tortolano
  1. Jonathan Rainey
  1. Janice Mackay
  2. Eunice Normansell
  3. Robert Hill
  4. Sharon Boyle
  5. Ian Emery
  1. Andy Doig
  1. Peter Morton
  1. Jim Halfpenny
  2. Lynda McEwan
  3. Ian Kerr
  • Maurice Campbell
  • James Morrison

Clydebank and Milngavie

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Gil Paterson
Majority: 8432 (25.7%)
Turnout: 60.1%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Marie McNair
Conservative: Pam Gosal
Labour: Douglas McAllister
Liberal Democrat: Katy Gordon
Independent: Alexander Robertson

Cunninghame North

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Kenny Gibson
Majority: 8724 (27.3%)
Turnout: 57.6%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Kenny Gibson
Conservative: Jamie Greene
Labour: Katy Clark
Liberal Democrat: Ruby Kirkwood

Cunninghame South

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Ruth Maguire
Majority: 5693 (22.2%)
Turnout: 51.4%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Ruth Maguire
Conservative: David Rocks
Labour: Louise McPhater
Liberal Democrat: Tom Armstrong
Independent: Maurice Campbell

Dumbarton

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


Labour: Jackie Baillie
Majority: 109 (0.3%)
Turnout: 61.0%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Toni Giugliano
Conservative: Maurice Corry
Labour: Jackie Baillie
Liberal Democrat: Andy Foxall
Libertarian: Jonathan Rainey
Independent: Andrew Muir
Independent: James Morrison

Eastwood

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


Conservative: Jackson Carlaw
Majority: 1610 (4.4%)
Turnout: 68.4%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Colm Merrick
Conservative: Jackson Carlaw
Labour: Katie Pragnell
Liberal Democrat: Tahir Jameel
UKIP: Janice Mackay
Independent: David Macdonald

Greenock and Inverclyde

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Stuart McMillan
Majority: 8230 (25.9%)
Turnout: 57.7%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Stuart McMillan
Conservative: Caroline Hollins
Labour: Francesca Brennan
Liberal Democrat: Jacci Stoyle
Independent: John Burleigh

Paisley

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: George Adam
Majority: 5199 (17.6%)
Turnout: 57.2%

2021 Candidates

SNP: George Adam
Conservative: Russell Findlay
Labour: Neil Bibby
Green: Scott Bevan
Liberal Democrat: Eileen McCartin

Renfrewshire North and West

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Derek Mackay
Majority: 7373 (23.9%)
Turnout: 61.0%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Natalie Don
Conservative: Julie Pirone
Labour: Johanna Baxter
Liberal Democrat: Ross Stalker
Family Party: Marty Bell

Renfrewshire South

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Tom Arthur
Majority: 4408 (14.9%)
Turnout: 60.3%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Tom Arthur
Conservative: Derek Stillie
Labour: Paul O'Kane
Liberal Democrat: Christine Cosh
Scotia Future: Andy Doig

Strathkelvin and Bearsden

2016 Results

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2016 MSP & Majority


SNP: Rona Mackay
Majority: 8100 (20.7%)
Turnout: 62.8%

2021 Candidates

SNP: Rona Mackay
Conservative: Andrew Polson
Labour: Calum McNally
Liberal Democrat: Susan Murray
Family Party: Liam McKechnie