Contents
Region History
2026 Candidates
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs
Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith
Edinburgh North Western
Edinburgh Northern
Edinburgh South Western
Edinburgh Southern
Midlothian North
List Seat Allocation Process
Make sure to check out Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page for polling, analysis and updates ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.
Region Map
Region Description
This is one of the most significantly redrawn regions under the new boundaries, effectively replacing the prior Lothian region. The Lothian area was never wholly contained within that region, as most of East Lothian and a large chunk of Midlothian lay within the South region. On the face of it, what’s changed here is that West Lothian has been chucked out, and the rest of East Lothian added.
If you were paying really close attention to the previous paragraph, you might wonder where “a large chunk of Midlothian” has ended up. It’s still in South. So we’ve gone from one Lothian region that doesn’t actually cover all of Lothian, to two regions with Lothian in the name that don’t actually cover all of Lothian. First Past the Post, everybody!
Edinburgh was already the dominant component of the prior Lothian region, when it had 6 of the 9 constituencies. That dominance has very slightly increased in this version, as it’s now home to 6-and-a-bit of the seats. It isn’t just Edinburgh that’s benefitting from a shift in Scotland’s centre of population however, which is how adding what was previously one East Lothian constituency plus very, very slightly expanding the Midlothian one nonetheless made up for losing two West Lothian seats.
What to Watch For in 2026
Edinburgh is in many respects an absolutely classic European capital, which is to say that it’s highly politically diverse compared to much of the rest of the country. In 2021 it (the city, not the wider region) came very close to having five parties winning double-digit support on the list vote (the Lib Dems missing out by less than 1%), though this time it may be the Conservatives that fail to cross that bar.
That has historically been reflected by somewhat lower winning shares in constituencies here than elsewhere, which means there’s not a lot separating a scenario where the SNP win so many constituencies they warp the proportionality as one where Labour do so. Despite that diversity in the capital at Holyrood, at Westminster the overall area of this region was almost entirely Labour in 2024, barring the Lib Dem stronghold in Edinburgh West.
As the population balance of East Lothian and Midlothian continues to shift away from long-established residents to people priced out of Edinburgh, we’re seeing the political effects of that. Green support in particular is stronger there than other suburban council areas, with Midlothian’s ward structure being the only thing that has recently kept the Greens out there. All of which is to say that this is a region the Greens will be happiest with, helping solidify their two current MSPs. The Lib Dems don’t draw as much support outside Edinburgh but they probably don’t need to, as favourable constituency boundaries there may hand them a second seat anyway.
The flip side to all this is that this should be the region where Reform UK do the worst. The relatively youthful, liberal and affluent lean to the region just isn’t favourable to them. That won’t lock them out of representation, unless there’s a really shock result, but it will mean this is their most likely place to end up with a solo MSP.Â
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Notional 2021 Seat Winners
Constituency
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs: 
SNP
Edinburgh Central:Â SNP
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent:Â SNP
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith:Â SNP
Edinburgh North Western:Â 
Lib Dem
Edinburgh Northern:Â SNP
Edinburgh South Western:Â SNP
Edinburgh Southern:Â 
Labour
Midlothian North:Â SNP
Regional List
1: 
Conservative
2: 
Green
3:Â Conservative
4:Â Labour
5:Â Conservative
6:Â Green
7:Â Labour
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2021 Notional Results (Regional Vote)
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2021 Notional Results (Constituency Vote)
1999 to 2011 Boundaries
Elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007 for Lothians were fought on boundaries that covered the whole of Edinburgh and West Lothian, most of Midlothian (excluding Penicuik) and a small part of East Lothian around the centre and west of Musselburgh.
Labour won all bar one of the constituencies in the region at the first outing, far in excess of their fair share, with the Lib Dems picking up the other one. With a second Lib Dem seat via the list their tally equalled the Conservatives, whilst the SNP picked up a trio of MSPs including the weel-kent Margo MacDonald. The Greens also unexpectedly elected the first such parliamentarian anywhere in the UK, which came as a real surprise. The particular system of PR that was selected for Holyrood was expected to be proportional amongst the existing four big parties, not to let upstarts in.
The “Rainbow Parliament” came to Lothians in a big way, befitting Edinburgh’s nature as a politically diverse city. For one thing, Labour lost one constituency each to the Lib Dems and Conservatives, though their half-dozen was still slightly more than they were fairly due. The List seats meanwhile went by majority to MSPs outside the Big Four: two Greens, one for the SSP, and most notably one for Margo MacDonald as an Independent. She’d butted heads with then-leader John Swinney and been sunk too far down the SNP list to be re-elected. That was stupid of them, as Margo was that rare breed of genuinely deeply personally popular politician and she won easily by herself.
2007 saw the SNP’s first constituency gains, gaining Edinburgh East and Musselburgh and Livingston from Labour. As the other non-Labour constituencies remained where they were not only was this the first time they didn’t exceed their total share, but they actually found themselves due a list seat, and tied with the SNP overall. Although the 2003 rainbow faded nationwide, a single Green and Margo helped keep the diversity relatively high in this region.
2011 to 2026 Boundaries
Elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021Â for Lothian were fought on boundaries that covered the whole of Edinburgh and West Lothian, most of Midlothian (excluding Penicuik, Newtongrange and Gorebridge), and a small part of East Lothian around Musselburgh and Wallyford.
The SNP’s 2011 landslide was so shocking in Lothian that it was their turn to exceed their fair share of seats, picking up all bar one of the constituencies to leave Labour with one. Not only did that knock the Lib Dems off the seat they would otherwise have been due, but it also did Shirley-Anne Somerville in despite her strong list placing. A readjustment on the list seats meant the Conservatives didn’t see any net loss despite losing their constituency, and since the Greens and Margo held their seats, the rest of the list MSPs went Labour’s way.
Devastatingly, Margo would pass away partway through this term. Whilst party MSPs get replaced from the list, as an Independent there was no one to replace her, leaving a vacant seat for the rest of the term, a fitting tribute for one of the biggest and brightest figures in Scottish politics. Margo was so well liked that even then-Conservative Leader Ruth Davidson lamented that her passing meant she wouldn’t get to cast a vote for Scottish Independence.
Although the SNP picked up the one seat that had eluded them in 2011, they also lost one constituency apiece to the Lib Dems, Labour and most remarkably the Conservatives, as Ruth Davidson swept to an unforeseen constituency victory in Edinburgh Central. Despite much SNP grumping and girning about the Greens standing in that seat, note how the SNP’s seat tally matches their constituency haul: 6 seats. They did not win any list seats, because they were not due any more than that. Had they won that constituency, a 7th seat overall, they’d have exceeded their share and booted one of the list MSPs out: that’d have been the Greens! As such, the two Green MSPs reflected their fair share, and sat alongside another two for Labour and the remaining three for the Conservatives.
The SNP managed to gain Edinburgh Central from the Conservatives, but this time they were due 7 seats in the region anyway and thus didn’t do anyone out of a seat. That was therefore the only change in this region compared to the previous election.
Candidates in both this section and individual constituencies are marked if they are an incumbent MSP:
- (*C): Incumbent for that constituency, or equivalent if significantly impacted by boundary changes
- (*OC): Incumbent for another constituency
- (*L): Incumbent on the list
2026 Total Candidate Numbers
Edinburgh and Lothians East: 2026 Regional List Candidates
The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.
Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.
- Tommy Sheppard
- Deidre Brock (Edinburgh Southern)
- Simita Kumar (Edinburgh South Western)
- Angus Robertson (*C, Edinburgh Central)
- Paul McLennan (*C, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs)
- Colin Beattie (*C, Midlothian North)
- Lyn Jardine (Edinburgh North Western)
- Miles Briggs (*L, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs)
- Sue Webber (*L, Edinburgh South Western)
- Marie-Clair Munro (Edinburgh Southern)
- Christopher Cowdy (Edinburgh Northern)
- Jo Mowat (Edinburgh Central)
- Tim Jones (Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent)
- Rachel Cairns (Edinburgh North Western)
- Haris Young (Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith)
- Irshad Ahmad (Edinburgh North Western)
- Katherine Sangster (Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent)
- Daniel Johnson (*C, Edinburgh Southern)
- Catriona Munro (Edinburgh South Western)
- Martin Whitfield (*L, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs)
- Catilin Stott (Midlothian North)
- James Dalgleish (Edinburgh Central)
- Eleanor Ryan-Saha (Edinburgh Northern)
- Oliver Thomas (Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith)
- Lorna Slater (*L, Edinburgh Central)
- Kate Nevens (Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith)
- Q Manivannan
- Kayleigh Kinross-O’Neill (Edinburgh Northern)
- Chas Booth
- Adam Al-Khateb
- Jo Phillips
- Mridul Wadhwa
- Dan Heap
- Astri JS Kvassness
- Alex Staniforth
- Mariusz Cebulski
- Sanne Dijkstra-Downie (Edinburgh Northern)
- Jane Pickard (Edinburgh Southern)
- Charles Dundas (Edinburgh Central)
- Lewis Younie
- Jenny Butler (Midlothian North)
- Liss Owen (Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith)
- Alan Grant (Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent)
- Angela Ross (Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent)
- Pal Chidambaram (Midlothian North)
- Nigel Douglas (East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs)
- David Lees (Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith)
- Charles Turner (Edinburgh Southern)
- Andrew McLaughlin (Edinburgh Northern)
- Gary Neill (Edinburgh Central)
- Davie Thomson (Edinburgh North Western)
- Cameron Rose (Edinburgh South Western)
- Sean Moffat
- Craig Murray (Edinburgh Central)
- Joe Smith (Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent)
- Hugh Kerr
- James Daly
- Anna Caro
- Mark Scott
- Lee Williscroft-Ferris
- Vivienne Moir
- Jane Smith
- Chris Cullen
- Marc Wilkinson (Edinburgh Southern)
- David Renton
- Laura MacKintosh
- Caitlin Dykes-Johnson
- Philip Holden
- Niel Deepnarain
- Mairi Lucas
- Helen MacEachen
- Peter Cox
- John Hannah
- Megan Burns
Note: Independent Green Voice are a front group for a bunch of Glasgow bampots, led by someone who was expelled from UKIP for alleged Holocaust denial. They are standing purely as a spoiler party in this election, targeting the legitimate Scottish Green Party, and their simple one candidate per region slate is further evidence of this dodgy dealing.
- Tam Laird (Edinburgh Central)
- Gary Smith
- Colin Fox
- Natalie Reid
- Ally Maxwell
- David Henry (Edinburgh North Western)
- Abu Meron (Edinburgh Northern)
- Jeremy Balfour (*L; was Conservative)
- “Bonnie Prince Bob” (Edinburgh Central)
- Morgwn Davies (East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs)
- Ash Regan (*C; was SNP then Alba)
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 1518 (3.8%)
Boundary Changes: Loses Tranent and Elphinstone to the new Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent
2026 Candidates
SNP: Paul McLennan (*C), L5Conservative: Miles Briggs (*L), L1Labour: Martin Whitfield (*L), L5Lib Dem: Tim McKay
Reform UK: Nigel Douglas, L3
Independent: Morgwn Davies
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the East Lothian Council area, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs in fact covers the majority of it. That includes the old county town of Haddington, plus three substantial coastal settlements at Dunbar, North Berwick, and the combined Prestonpans, Cockenzie and Port Seton cluster. Smaller villages including Longniddry, Aberlady and Gullane (or is that Gullane?) lie along the coast or, as with East Linton, Macmerry, Ormiston and Pencaitland, in the rural interior.
This constituency was previously known as East Lothian, but given a longer name as part of a new policy to avoid replicating council area names unless coterminous with the constituency. Labour had held the seat up until the SNP finally relieved them of it in 2021. That seems very unlikely to hold this time around, with Labour currently the firm favourites to win here.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 4262 (10.5%)
Boundary Changes: Current seat splits three ways: area within the Inverleith ward to new Edinburgh Northern; area within Corstorphine and Murrayfield ward to new Edinburgh North Western; remainder to new Edinburgh Central. Gains areas around Merchiston, Marchmont and Sciennes from old Edinburgh Southern
2026 Candidates
SNP: Angus Robertson (*C), L4Conservative: Jo Mowat, L5Labour: James Dalgleish, L7Green: Lorna Slater (*L), L1Lib Dem: Charles Dundas, L3Reform UK: Gary Neill, L7
Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Craig Murray, L1Libertarian: Tam Laird, L1Independent: “Bonnie Prince Bob”, L1Independent: Chris CreightonIndependent: Robert Pownall
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, Edinburgh Central really is what it says on the tin. In addition to the historic Old and New Towns at the heart of the city, this also covers areas including Canongate, Dumbiedykes, St Leonard’s, Marchmont, Merchiston, Fountainbridge, Dalry, Coates, and part of Gorgie. This is where the Scottish Parliament itself is located, and as the map above shows through 2022 local election data has hotspots for all five of the parties that won seats at Holyrood in 2021.
Although the name has been preserved since 1999, the boundaries haven’t. We’d tie our brains in knots trying to follow the detail of changes across three formulations, but all have been highly impactful. Changes in 2011 meant what was a Labour seat from 1999 on was a notional Lib Dem seat in 2007 on the new boundaries, though it was the SNP that ultimately won it. Conservative leader Ruth Davidson pulled off a shock win here in 2016, but it went back to the SNP in 2021.
This is likely to be one of the most hotly contested constituencies of the election, and to understand why we have to really emphasise this is not 2021’s Edinburgh Central. Shifting the seat southwards has done two things. Firstly, it pulled in areas from the Edinburgh Southern seat that Labour won, which massively shifts the balance of support. Labour were 22.6% behind the SNP on the old version, but in this version they place just 10.5% short. That makes this one of the first seats in the country, not just the region, that Labour can expect to pick up with the SNP’s share having crashed so hard.
Secondly, this has created hands-down the best constituency that has ever existed for the Scottish Greens, better even than the former Glasgow Kelvin. Ignore the constituency vote from 2021: that’s only counting the bits from the prior seat, as they didn’t stand in Edinburgh Southern so have no vote to parcel out, never mind the massive tactical squeeze on them. On the list vote, they were only 5% behind the SNP here, which makes this a potential prospect for them, and indeed in the 2022 locals they placed first overall. However, it won’t be easy to communicate that to voters, and it’s not clear whether the local party will run the kind of concerted campaign necessary to win it.Â
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 6883 (20.2%)
Boundary Changes: Takes area within Portobello and Craigmillar from old Edinburgh Eastern; Musselburgh, Wallyford and Whitecraig from old Midlothian North and Musselburgh, and Tranent and Elphinstone from old East Lothian
2026 Candidates
SNP: Kate CampbellConservative: Tim Jones, L6Labour: Katherine Sangster, L2Lib Dem: Alan Grant, L7Reform UK: Angela Ross, L1Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Joe Smith, L2
Constituency Description
The only split-council seat in the region, the narrow majority of Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent actually comes from East Lothian Council area. Musselburgh is the largest town in East Lothian overall, and Tranent is then the next largest in this chunk hence inclusion in the name. In between them are smaller villages at Wallyford, Whitecraig, Old Craighall and Elphinstone. The remainder covers a part of City of Edinburgh Council, namely the Portobello and Craigmillar ward, which also incorporate Joppa, Brunstane, Newcraighall, Niddrie, and part of Duddingston.
This isn’t truly the successor to any prior seat, as it only covers a small portion of the previous Edinburgh Eastern seat that the SNP have held since 2011. They’d also gained the old Edinburgh Eastern and Musselburgh seat from Labour in 2007, but that was a very different constituency, covering a lot more of eastern Edinburgh and a lot less of Musselburgh. This is one of the SNP’s safest seats in the region, and thus one that’ll be harder for Labour to convert.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 11015 (27.6%)
Boundary Changes: Takes area within Craigentinny and Duddingston ward from old Edinburgh Eastern; Leith and most of Leith Walk ward from old Edinburgh Northern and Leith
2026 Candidates
SNP: Ben Macpherson (*C)Conservative: Haris Young, L8Labour: Oliver Thomas, L8Green: Kate Nevens, L2Lib Dem: Liss Owen, L6Reform UK: David Lees, L4
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith may look like a similarly named constituency to a previous one, but it’s a rather big change. As the reformulated name suggests this one is much more east facing, combining Leith, Pilrig, Broughton and Seafield with Restalrig, Craigentinny, Meadowbank, Piershill, Willowbrae and part of Duddingston. Boundaries Scotland foolishly attempted to leave “Leith” out of the name of the constituency, and if there’s one thing you don’t do to the people of “Govan, if it had a coastline” it’s dare to suggest they are, in fact, just part of Edinburgh. Even though they are. Anyway, it’s in the name, so it’s only Ballot Box Scotland in the firing line for being cheeky about people having notions.
Although not clearly a successor to the old Edinburgh Northern and Leith, that is where it makes most sense to compare. The SNP gained that seat from Labour in 2016, it being the one constituency the latter had held in this region in 2011. This version is easily the SNP’s safest seat in the region, and therefore the one theoretically most likely to survive any combination of SNP slump or Labour surge. It’s also one where the Greens came second on the list vote, which could mark it as a future prospect, as well as eat into the SNP vote share now.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Lib Dem
Majority: 6240 (14.2%)
Boundary Changes: Replaces the old Edinburgh Western; loses area around Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall to new Edinburgh Northern; gains area around Murrayfield from old Edinburgh Central; gains Ratho from old Edinburgh Pentlands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Lyn Jardine, L7Conservative: Rachel Cairns, L7Labour: Irshad Ahmad, L1Lib Dem: Alex Cole-Hamilton (*C)Reform UK: Davie Thomson, L8Worker’s Party: David Henry, L1
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, Edinburgh North Western is a redrawing of the prior Edinburgh Western seat, gaining the Ratho and Murrayfield areas, whilst losing Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall. There are effectively two broad areas included here. The first is the westernmost reaches of Edinburgh proper, which include Murrayfield, Corstorphine, Clermiston, the Craigs (East and West), and Cramond. The other part are some of the villages that lie within the council area, most notably South Queensferry, but also Kirkliston, Newbridge, Ingliston and Ratho.Â
That’s very much a split in terms of urban character rather than voting patterns, as it’s pretty much Lib Dem central here. The only time they didn’t win this seat or its previous versions was in the SNP’s 2011 landslide, when the winning MSP was clearly considered so poor he wasn’t even re-selected in 2016. Although this version is less Lib Dem favourable than the last in raw 2021 vote terms, that’s not going to survive contact with the Lib Dem election machine which should see party leader Alex Cole-Hamilton handsomely re-elected. That doesn’t mean this is a completely boring one to watch though, as you can see that in 2021 the SNP actually won more list votes than the Lib Dems.
I reckon that’s down to two varieties of tactical voting: on the one hand, natural Conservative and Labour voters backing the Lib Dems on the constituency vote to beat the SNP. On the other, natural Lib Dem voters figuring they wouldn’t be due any list seats, so putting their weight behind the Conservatives and Labour for regional seats. Whilst the first of these dynamics will continue to apply this time around, the latter I expect to be much less so, not least because I bet a lot of natural Lib Dems are scunnered with their Pro-Union allies. I’m therefore curious to see how much more closely aligned their two votes are this time.
Note: The originally selected Conservative candidate for this seat, Jeremy Balfour, resigned from the party in August 2025. He’d been an MSP for the Lothian region since 2016.
The originally selected Reform UK candidate for this seat, James Glen, resigned as a candidate shortly after being selected in support of his partner Linda Holt who had done the same the previous day.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 9453 (22.0%)
Boundary Changes: Takes area within Forth and the north eastern part of Inverleith wards from old Edinburgh Northern and Leith; remainder of Inverleith ward from old Edinburgh Central; area around Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall from old Edinburgh Western
2026 Candidates
SNP: Euan HyslopConservative: Christopher Cowdy, L4Labour: Eleanor Ryan-Saha, L8Green: Kayleigh Kinross-O’Neill, L4Lib Dem: Sanne Dijkstra-Downie, L1Reform UK: Andrew McLaughlin, L6Worker’s Party: Abu Meron, L2
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, Edinburgh Northern is basically a completely new constituency, though it draws most heavily on the prior Northern and Leith. Along the coast this includes Newhaven, Wardie, Pilton, West Pilton and Silverknows, whilst the more inland segments sweep across Blackhall, Drylaw, Craigleith, Inverleith, Bonnington, Canonmills, Stockbridge, Comley Bank and the Dean Village.Â
This is the other properly intriguing constituency within the region. If you look at 2021 notionals, the SNP are well out in front with a near even split between the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour. Had this seat existed in 2021, that’s the kind of scenario where all three of those parties put out competing leaflets going “Only we can stop the SNP here!”; “No, only WE can stop the SNP here!”; “Rubbish, if you want to stop the SNP, vote for US!”, voters have no idea what to do, and the SNP easily win.
In 2026 however, do you know what we call an Edinburgh constituency with an even 2021 split between the Pro-Union parties? A Lib Dem gain. The Conservatives are absolutely toast this time around, and Labour have spent much of the time since forming the UK Government shooting themselves in the foot. With the SNP also badly bruised, only the Lib Dems aren’t struggling at the moment. In the 2022 locals they won the most votes in the areas within this constituency, and they could barely hide their glee when this seat was suggested. They have a truly formidable election machine in Edinburgh to boot, so I expect this to go their way, even if my model can’t quite be cajoled to say so.
Note: The originally selected Labour candidate for this seat, Foysol Choudhury, was suspended by his party in September 2025. His selection was subsequently voided.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 5744 (15.7%)
Boundary Changes: Replaces the old Edinburgh Pentlands; loses Ratho to new Edinburgh North Western; gains area around Slateford and Craiglockhart from old Edinburgh Southern; loses area around Fairmilehead to new Edinburgh Southern
2026 Candidates
SNP: Simita Kumar, L3Conservative: Sue Webber (*L), L2Labour: Catriona Munro, L4Lib Dem: Andy WilliamsonReform UK: Cameron Rose, L9
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, Edinburgh South Western is a slightly narrowed and elongated redrawing of Edinburgh Pentlands. It’s shed Ratho and Fairmilehead, whilst gaining Slateford, Craiglockhart and Kingsknowe. Those bolt on to the existing affluent portions around Colinton, Woodhall, Currie and Balerno. It’s not all posh in here though, with Oxgangs, Sighthill, Saughton and Wester Hailes offering more working class areas.
I mention that aspect of demographics here because as Edinburgh Pentlands this was one of only three urban constituencies the Conservatives have ever won at Holyrood, gaining it from Labour in 2003. The SNP would ultimately win a redrawn version in their 2011 landslide. Although the Conservatives really tried to regain this over successive elections, they haven’t yet succeeded, and they aren’t about to given their collapsing support.
That means the majority figure below isn’t much use, as it’s instead the 25% vs Labour we’re looking at. That’s a very comfortable margin, which would make this one of the harder gains for Labour. The SNP’s prospects will also be a bit better compared to their crushing loss in the equivalent Westminster seat. In 2024 hey experienced the fourth worst swing against them out of Scotland’s 57 seats there, which can only be explained as a vote against former MP Joanna Cherry.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Labour
Majority: 1702 (4.0%)
Boundary Changes: Loses area around Slateford and Craiglockhart to new Edinburgh South Western; loses areas around Merchiston, Marchmont and Sciennes to new Edinburgh Central; gains area around Fairmilehead from old Edinburgh Pentlands; gains remaing bulk of Liberton and Gilmerton ward from old Edinburgh Eastern
2026 Candidates
SNP: Deidre Brock, L2Conservative: Marie-Clair Munro, L3Labour: Daniel Johnson (*C), L3Lib Dem: Jane Alliston Pickard, L2Reform UK: Charles Turner, L5Edinburgh and East Lothian People: Marc Wilkinson, L1
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the City of Edinburgh Council area, we’re back to having a genuinely southern seat in the city with this new Edinburgh Southern. The previous version of this was actually more like “South-Central”, and from that version come Morningside, Greenbank, Newington, Prestonfield and Liberton. Bolted on now are the true southern edges of Edinurgh across Fairmilehead, Burdiehouse, Gilmernton and Alnwickhill. That makes this very nearly identical, just a touch smaller, than the Westminster Edinburgh South seat.
That’ll be music to the ears of Labour, who have held the previous two versions of this seat since 1999 except for when the SNP won it in their 2011 landslide. I’m actually convinced, based on how voting patterns were at that point in history, it was only the new boundaries that year that tipped it. It was extremely close and if it hadn’t been moved northwards, away from Liberton and Gilmerton, I reckon it’d have stayed SNP.
Now, of course, voting patterns are rather different and areas like Gilmerton have become more SNP leaning. That’s more than halved Labour’s notional margin compared to the old version. However, I don’t see that really helping them in this election. Labour may not be in the happiest place at the moment, but neither are the SNP, so it’s hard to see how this changes hands. That’s especially true given how easy it now is to work their vote in parliaments at once.
Note: The originally selected SNP candidate for this seat, Sally Donald, stood down following media reports in relation to social security claims.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 5690 (17.6%)
Boundary Changes: Loses Musselburgh to new Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent; gains Newtongrange from old Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
2026 Candidates
SNP: Colin Beattie (*C), L6Conservative: Phil DoggartLabour: Caitlin Stott, L6Lib Dem: Jenny Butler, L5Reform UK: Pal Chidambaram, L2
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the Midlothian Council area, Midlothian North has divorced itself from Musselburgh, with the addition of Newtongrange from the other Midlothian seat hardly making up the difference. That’s because population growth in Midlothian overall has been so intense that it has become about one-sixth larger over recent years. It’s easy through a scan of Google Maps at the time of writing to see the housebuilding that’s supporting this increase, by places like Danderhall, Bonnyrigg, Loanhead, Mayfield and Dalkeith.
Although not Holyrood, given Midlothian Council has had six wards of three councillors each the whole time, that really should have seen the creation of an additional ward (or redrawing some existing ones to introduce four or five member wards). Alas, our boundary setting processes simply don’t allow for that kind of responsiveness. It isn’t just First Past the Post that’s deficient in terms of allowing us to manage elections effectively.
The SNP have held the prior Midlothian North and Musselburgh since it was created in 2011. Labour held the preceding Midlothian seat, which this is actually very close to replicating. Midlothian North is roughly in the middle in terms of vulnerability for this region, requiring more than just the SNP’s loss of support to send it Labour’s way, but not vastly more.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
To allocate list seats using the D’Hondt method, each party’s share of the vote is divided by one more than the number of seats they’ve won so far in the process. This is an important part of how the list seats then more fairly represent the diversity of views amongst voters. List votes cast for a party that has won lots of constituency seats are not “wasted”, they just aren’t needed to give their voters fair representation.
Starting Point
When allocating the first list seat, this starts with the number of constituencies won by each party:
- The SNP won 7 constituencies, so their vote is divided by 8.
- Labour won 1 constituency, so their vote is divided by 2.
- The Lib Dems won 1 constituency, so their vote is divided by 2.
Seat 1
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the first regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 1 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 2.
Seat 2
Since the Greens have the highest total here, they receive the second regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 1 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 2.
Seat 3
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the third regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.
Seat 4
Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the fourth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.
Seat 5
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the fifth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 3 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 4.
Seat 6
Since the Greens have the highest total here, they receive the sixth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.
Seat 7
Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the seventh and final regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 3 seats overall. This completes the list seat allocation process.
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