Don’t expect anything but a Conservative lead in what is a strong council for them, and the SNP’s weakest on the mainland. The Labour vote may be the one to watch here, both in terms of how it shifts at top level and where transfers go.
Local Elections 2022
Wards Worth Watching: North Ayrshire
Transfers helped deliver an SNP-Labour tie in seats in 2017, but boundary changes may have helped make enough of a difference for the SNP to pull ahead this time.
Wards Worth Watching: Aberdeen
Scotland’s third largest city has become increasingly politically diverse, and may see at least one Green councillor for the first time – whilst a term-long suspension for Labour’s councillors offers a truly weird backdrop for that party.
Wards Worth Watching: East Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire loves a chaotic result under STV, making it one of the least predictable contests in the country.
Wards Worth Watching: Fife
Two things seem certain in Fife – firstly, that the SNP will remain in the lead, and secondly that the Lib Dems will remain dominant in North East Fife. What happens in terms of seats is less clear, with few obvious prospects for SNP and Labour gains against likely weakened Conservatives.
Wards Worth Watching: Edinburgh
Capital cities the world over are highly political diverse – at least where the voting system allows that – and Edinburgh is no different. Expect all five major parties to have a strong presence here, with likely Conservative slippage.
Wards Worth Watching: Na h-Eileanan an Iar
The Comhairle is somewhat less Independent than the other islands. In the face of boundary changes, will the SNP maintain and grow their councillor group? Can the Conservatives add to their single seat? And might the Greens make a surprise apperance?
Wards Worth Watching: North Lanarkshire
Historically one of Scotland’s strongest Labour areas, the SNP squeaked a narrow lead in 2017, as the Conservatives experienced a major breakthrough.
Wards Worth Watching: Highland
There’s always lots going on in Highland, and this election is no different. There’s scope for substantial gains for all of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens, and the possibility the still-huge Independent group could be eroded further.
Wards Worth Watching: Dundee
Dundee has previously delivered an SNP majority, and could again. 2017 also delivered an unjustifiably large lead in seats for Labour over the Conservatives, and leaves open the prospect of Lib Dem gains too.