Not only have recent polls put Labour ahead of the SNP for the first time since the 2014 Independence Referendum, seat projections suggest a modest advantage in votes may translate to an enormous lead in seats. What’s going on?
Articles
Poll Analysis: Savanta 24th – 28th of May 2024
The second Savanta poll in the space of a few weeks offers a Weird Burger, with some odd Holyrood numbers sandwiched between no change on the Westminster and Independence figures.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 27th of May 2024
The first full Scotland-only poll of the general election campaign will put even more of a spring in Scottish Labour’s step, but this isn’t the start John Swinney will have wanted to his time as First Minister.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 13th – 17th of May 2024
What is overall the best poll since BBS was established for Scottish Labour makes for grim reading for the SNP and Conservatives, whilst the Greens continue to vastly outperform against consistently flawed analysis of the party’s support base.
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 13th of June 2024
The sad passing of a popular local Independent with a near quarter-century of service under his belt seems likely to go to another Independent, though failing that, it would be the Lib Dems.
By-Election Preview: Clydebank Central (West Dunbartonshire) 13th of June 2024
A by-election arising in utterly vile circumstances would at any other time be an easy SNP win, but under current conditions it’s Labour with the advantage.
By-Election Result: Kilwinning
Absolutely no surprises as Labour swept to an easy victory in a ward they’ve done nothing but grow in strength within over the past few elections.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 3rd – 8th of May 2024
The worst poll since the Independence referendum for the SNP is the best for Labour, but the constitutional question itself remains significantly less volatile.
Scottish Parliament Boundary Review 2: Revised Proposals
Revised proposals for new Scottish Parliament constituencies no longer hand the SNP a notional 2021 majority, but demonstrate the incredible difficulty of getting seats around Glasgow and Edinburgh to make sense.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of April – 3rd of May 2024
The first poll following Humza Yousaf’s resignation as First Minister makes for grim reading for his successor. A buoyant Labour Party seems reasonable, but some oddities here with Reform UK and Alba shares.