Expect a fierce Conservative-SNP contest in the home territory of the Scottish Conservative leader – albeit one likely to be rooted in a seemingly odd lack of gains.
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Wards Worth Watching: South Lanarkshire
Though the SNP will be aiming for growth, it’s hard to predict where they could make gains, whilst Labour will be hoping a poor result for the Conservatives will boost their chances.
Wards Worth Watching: Stirling
A narrow Conservative 2017 win in the Westminster seat was overturned by the SNP in 2019. They’ll be aiming to repeat that feat here, whilst Labour seek recovery and the Greens try for a group of councillors.
Wards Worth Watching: East Lothian
Labour’s last remaining lead in votes may be at risk this time. The SNP look most likely to overtake, given their command of the local constituencies, with Conservative prospects perhaps less rosy than it would have seemed last year.
Wards Worth Watching: Renfrewshire
What ward ISN’T worth watching in Renfrewshire? Gey few, apparently. The SNP have a route to a majority, Labour have a route to a resurgence, the Conservatives have a route to growth, and the Lib Dems have a route to elimination.
Wards Worth Watching: Scottish Borders
This bastion of the Conservatives’ revival isn’t going to be anything other than a clear Conservative victory. The questions are by how much, and can the Lib Dems mount any kind of recovery?
Wards Worth Watching: East Ayrshire
A solid SNP lead is likely to see this being more an election for second place. Labour may be breathing a sigh of relief after recent Conservative woes, after the blues were breathing down their neck last time.
Wards Worth Watching: Argyll and Bute
A typically Independent-led council that has gotten progressively less Independent, whether that trend continues this election or not is all but impossible to predict in advance.
Wards Worth Watching: Shetland Islands
Shetland’s recent run of Independent-only councils was broken in 2017, but only due to an uncontested ward auto-electing an SNP candidate. This year is already looking more party political in terms of candidtes, but will that translate to seats?
Wards Worth Watching: Perth and Kinross
One of a number of historic SNP strongholds that swung Conservative in 2017, this time around could be a much closer competition.