It’s not an election without a few sitting representatives being sent packing by the electorate – or, sometimes, their own party! In this piece, we go through the unlucky 13 recent polling put in the toughest position.
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Airdrie and Shotts (UK Parliament) By-Election 13th of May 2021
An SNP MP attempting a move to the identically named Scottish Parliament constituency has led to this by-election. This will be a clear two-horse race between the SNP and Labour, and it seems likely the SNP will hold it.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds Bonus Round
– Banffshire and Buchan Coast
– Glasgow Kelvin
– Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
– North East Fife
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 9th – 12th of April 2021
In a second post-Alba outing for Panelbase, they continue to be the outlier in finding notable levels of support, whilst the SNP fall short of a majority and Independence squeaks a narrow lead.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds 4-1
#4 – Aberdeenshire West
#3 – Ayr
#2 – Edinburgh Central
#1 – Dumbarton
Poll Analysis: ComRes 2nd – 7th of April 2021
A slightly better result for the Lib Dems compared to other agencies, whilst the Conservatives fall back. An SNP majority is on a knife-edge, as is the evenly-split Independence question, and Alba languish on 3%.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds 8-5
#8 – Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
#7 – Dumfriesshire
#6 – East Lothian
#5 – Edinburgh Southern
Poll Analysis: Opinium 1st – 6th of April 2021
After an almost status quo debut, Opinium’s second poll indicates a big SNP majority, whilst Alba record their worst result since launching. Independence is still, you guessed it, on a knife-edge.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos MORI 29th of March – 4th of April 2021
In the third poll since Alba’s launch, they make barely a splash. Instead, the SNP could be on course for a large majority despite a much reduced list vote, whilst the Greens record a joint-best result of the term, and Labour bounce back from one of their lowest shares.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 30th of March – 1st of April 2021
In the most eye-catching Scottish poll this Holyrood term, remarkably strong showings for Alba and All for Unity could see two new parties with seats in the chamber. A narrow SNP majority and equally narrow lead for Independence also feature.