Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.
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Argyll & Bute By-Election Results, 18/03/2021
Two very different by-elections in Argyll & Bute gave us one ward where the Conservatives easily won on first preferences alone, and another where an Independent squeaked past the SNP at the very last stage to nab the seat.
Glasgow By-Election Results, 18/03/2021
Two by-elections in Glasgow delivered high drama in my own ward with a narrow Labour victory over the SNP, whilst the other ward was almost completely status quo.
Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021
The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Labour
Scotland’s leading party for a half-century, Labour have been languishing in third place since 2016. They’ve never increased their share of votes or seats at a Holyrood election, and polling suggests 2021 will be no different. Can a newly elected leader turn things around?
Livingston South (West Lothian) By-Election Result
Giving us classic STV action in 2017 with an SNP first preference lead but Labour winning the re-calculation for a single councillor, this result wasn’t nearly so close, as the SNP swept to an easy victory.
Aird and Loch Ness (Highland) By-Election Result
What could have been a tight contest in this ward, and looked wafer-thin on first preferences, was a good old-fashioned romp home for an Independent candidate, in true Highland style.
Leaderdale and Melrose (Borders) By-Election Result
In a contest to replace a sadly departed SNP councillor, the Conservatives were expected to come out on top based on 2017 results, and duly did so. With three different Independents accounting to 41% of the 2017 vote not on the paper however, results aren’t entirely comparable.
ComRes, 5th-10th of March 2021
In the third of our polls from the same period, we have the first projection showing the SNP short of a majority since January last year. Support for the Union continues to rebound, as do the Conservatives, who’ve went from an all-term low to better than 2016 figures in just two months.
YouGov, 4th – 8th of March 2021
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year.