
Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
It’s another busy week for by-elections in Scotland. We’ve got four in total, all of which have arisen because Labour councillors were elected as MPs in July’s UK General Election. For Edinburgh’s Colinton and Fairmilehead ward, the councillor in question was Scott Arthur, who now represents Edinburgh South West. He’d been a councillor since 2017, and held a prominent role in Labour’s fragile minority administration after 2022 as the Transport and Environment Convenor.
Ward Details
Colinton and Fairmilehead is one of 17 wards in Edinburgh, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. As you might expect, this includes the Colinton and Fairmilehead areas ofthe city, as well as Oxgangs, Hailes and Bonaly. There were some very small changes to the ward in 2017, adding the area around a couple of schools (which will account for next to zero voters), whilst losing the Comiston estate.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Edinburgh Pentlands constituency which has been held by the SNP since 2011 when they gained it from the Conservatives, who had themselves won it from Labour in 2003. At the UK Parliament it’s split between two seats, with most of the area in the Edinburgh South West constituency that Arthur won from the SNP in July. Fairmilehead is within Edinburgh South, which was the one seat that remained consistently in Labour hands even through the SNP’s era of dominance. This area has a real tendency towards prominent representatives in both parliaments.
The old Edinburgh Pentlands UK seat had been Conservative for a very long time, represented for over 20 years by Malcolm Rifkind who served as Secretary of State for Scotland under Thatcher and then a range of roles under Major. The inaugural holder of the Holyrood equivalent was Iain Gray, who would go on to lead the Scottish Labour Party, but only after a term out office because he lost the seat to then-leader of the Scottish Conservatives, David McLetchie. Latterly, the South West seat was held by the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, a high profile figure who wasn’t to everyone’s liking and scored the fourth-heaviest loss of support for any SNP candidate earlier this year.
Electoral History
One of the most Conservative-friendly parts of urban Scotland, the first three elections for this ward saw them with two councillors. The third seat started out with Labour, went to the SNP in 2012, then went back to Labour in 2017, when this was one of very few wards in the country not to have an SNP councillor at all. In 2022 the Conservatives fell to a single seat for the first time, losing their second councillor to former SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central Marco Biagi.
In voting terms, we can see the Conservatives were completely dominant at those first three elections, whereas Labour and the SNP were mostly scrapping to see who could place a distant second. What’s perhaps most interesting though is that Conservative support was apparently already at saturation point because despite significant national and local gains in 2017, their vote here actually went down a little bit.
For whatever reason, in 2022 their support took a massive knock – not quite collapsing, but certainly plummeting. That saw Labour overtake them as the most popular party here for the first time, which is how the SNP were able to nab the final seat despite dropping a fair bit back below 20%, and facing a strong challenge from the Lib Dems who were only 2.5% behind at the decisive stage.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🔴Labour: Scott Arthur
🔵Conservative: Jason Rust
🟡SNP: Marco Biagi
Change vs 2017: +1 SNP, -1 Conservative
Turnout: 59.3%
Electorate: 19454
Valid: 11414 (98.9%)
Spoiled: 126 (1.1%)
Quota: 2854
Candidates
🔴Labour: Scott Arthur
🟡SNP: Marco Biagi
🔵Conservative: Neil Cuthbert
🟣Family: Richard Lucas
🟢Green: Helen McCabe
🔵Conservative: Jason Rust
🟠Lib Dem: Louise Spence
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Oh gods, here we go. It is practically impossible to have a by-election in the capital and not have a dizzying array of oddballs put themselves forward, regardless of how much or how little connection they actually have to the ward in question. So here we have the Holyrood 5, Reform UK, the Family Party and the Libertarians, alongside four Independents. That’s quite a lot of candidates to run through, so let’s take them across three categories.
For the Holyrood parties, Labour’s Sheila Gilmore is the most notable: she was MP for Edinburgh East from 2010 to 2015, and before that a councillor from 1991 to 2007. In standing down in 2007, she took a severance payment conditional on not standing again in future: a measure designed, effectively, to smooth things over with the many Labour councillors who would have to lose out in the move from the unfair FPTP voting system to a fairer (but not great) STV system. That provision was repealed relatively recently, hence Gilmore’s ability to stand. The Conservative and Lib Dem were each their party’s unsuccessful candidates here in 2022.
The Libertarian candidate stood for Inverleith in 2022, Edinburgh West in this year’s General Election and both Edinburgh Central and the Lothian list in the 2021 Holyrood election. The Family party candidate is similarly prolific: he stood for this ward in 2022, for Edinburgh South West in July, and Edinburgh Pentlands and the Lothian list in 2021.
Amongst the Independents, “Bonnie Prince Bob” (he can make friends with “Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India“) stood for the City Centre ward in 2022 and Edinburgh Central in 2021. David Henry stood for Alba in Sighthill and Gorgie in 2022, and as an Independent for Edinburgh West this year. Finally, Marc Wilkinson stood for Edinburgh South West in July.
⚪Independent: Bonnie Prince Bob
⚪Independent: Mev Brown
🟡SNP: Mairianna Clyde
🔵Conservative: Neil Cuthbert
🔴Labour: Sheila Gilmore
⚪Independent: David Henry
🟤Libertarian: Tam Laird
🟣Reform UK: Grand Lidster
🟤Family: Richard Lucas
🟢Green: Daniel Milligan
🟠Lib Dem: Louise Spence
⚪Independent: Marc Wilkinson
Analysis
This one is pretty interesting because on the face of it, this should be an incredibly easy win for Labour. If they were clearly ahead in 2022 and both the Conservatives and SNP remain in the doldrums, who else could possibly win given past performances? However, I am informed by multiple sources (including some very senior ones) that the Lib Dems are absolutely gunning for this.
I have to admit that did rather surprise me; it’s not that this isn’t an area worth them trying to win a councillor in 2027, but I didn’t think it’d be one they’d throw everything at for a by-election. The question I have is this though: are they just, ahem, big ballsing it to me and realistically expecting to be able to spin a “look, we’ll boot the SNP out in 2027” result, or are they seriously on the hunt for a win?
There aren’t any other elections going on in Edinburgh at the moment so it’s not unreasonable to go hard for this one. However, the year-round deluge of leaflets and activity for them I’d expect to be in the northwest of the city, where they are completely unbeatable and potentially have a very strong chance of a second Holyrood constituency in 2026 under new boundaries.
That said, given the obvious political flavour for this section of the city, the Lib Dems are the obvious alternative for anyone who was sick of the Conservatives and is a bit unhappy with how Keir Starmer has kicked off his time in Downing Street. Throw in the fact that we know from Strathallan that the Lib Dems are currently more than capable of delivering a big swing and victory when they put their mind to it, and although I’m still inclined to see Labour as favourites, I’ve demoted that to a very shaky “Lean” prediction.
Prediction
Lean Labour.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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