
Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Much to my relief, one particular source of by-elections is finally drawing to a close: councillors that became MPs. A grand total of 18 councillors made the transition in Scotland last July, and 17 of them had by-elections at some point in the months following. Lib Dem Susan Murray, now MP for Mid Dunbartonshire and previously councillor for East Dunbartonshire’s Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar ward since 2017, was the last one we needed to complete the set.
I will admit I had rather expected we might get a different East Dunbartonshire by-election before now, but the legal proceedings that might have triggered it appear to have gone very quiet. Ah well.
Ward Details
Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar is one of 7 wards in East Dunbartonshire, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. Clunky as the name may be, it’s pretty accurate. From Kirkintilloch this includes the Westermains, Hillhead, Rosebank and Harestanes areas. The much smaller village of Twechar lies just a little bit further along the Forth and Clyde Canal. The unwieldy name may reflect the boundary changes in 2017, which took the prior Kirkintilloch East and Twechar seat and bolted on the Kirktinilloch component of Kirkintilloch North and Campsie. That accounts for everything west of the canal.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Strathkelvin and Bearsden seat that the SNP gained from Labour in 2011. The constituency was notable for having been won by Independent Dr Jean Turner in the 2003 election. At the UK Parliament, an intense letter writing campaign led by the Lib Dems seeking to preserve a winnable seat means that not only is Kirkintilloch as a whole town split between constituencies, but this ward is.
The area around Westermains is part of the Mid Dunbartonshire constituency Murray won last year, but the rest of the ward is in the Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch seat Labour won. The prior versions of both seats had been SNP held since 2019, with the Lib Dems having won East Dunbartonshire prior to 2015 and again in 2017.
Electoral History
For comparative purposes I’m considering this ward as mostly succeeding the prior Kirkintilloch East and Twechar Ward. Neatly enough the pattern of representation is consistent within each of the two boundary sets, shifting at the changeover. In 2007 and 2012, exactly the same councillors were elected: one from Labour, the SNP and “East Dunbartonshire Independent Alliance”, a basically two-man party centred on two former Labour councillors, one of whom had been expelled for seemingly supporting Dr Turner in 2003.
The EDIA councillor retired in 2017, the party having dissolved after the death of his counterpart shortly after the 2012 election, with the same SNP and Labour councillors as before joined by Lib Dem Susan Murray. In 2022 the SNP’s original councillor retired, but a new candidate easily held their seat, joining the two re-elected councillors.
Remember that the 2007 and 2012 vote shares here are effectively excluding the Kirkintilloch North part of the ward. In that form the ward was very strongly Labour, especially when you consider that the EDIA candidate was formerly Labour. The SNP were relatively weak here, East Dunbartonshire (Council) always being one of their least strong areas. In 2017 though, Labour’s vote completely cratered in the face of Lib Dem and Conservative surges, whilst the SNP shot out in front with a much better share than before, hitting a record level in 2022. The Greens have only stood here once before, when it was their weakest ward in the council.
The change in the Lib Dem share is absolutely fascinating. In 2007, before they collapsed, they barely registered. They completely evaporated post-collapse in 2012. And yet come 2017, following their regaining of the East Dunbartonshire (Constituency) next door, they surged to a record result. You might think maybe that came from boundary changes, but no: they got a paltry 2.4% in Campsie and Kirkintilloch North in 2012. This was all new growth, though it would be reasonable to assume part of it came from the old EDIA pool. Does that perhaps speak to a personal vote for Murray as well as some strong local campaigning?
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Pamela Marshall
🔴Labour: Stewart MacDonald
🟠Lib Dem: Susan Murray
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 44.5%
Electorate: 12318
Valid: 5389 (98.4%)
Spoiled: 87 (1.6%)
Quota: 1348
Candidates
🔴Labour: Stewart MacDonald
🔵Conservative: Josephine Macleod
🟡SNP: Pamela Marshall
🟤Freedom Alliance: Alan McManus
🟠Lib Dem: Susan Murray
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Rather a busy ballot paper for this one, including all of the Holyrood 5 and other current regulars Reform UK, as well as Alba making one of their rare appearances. Lastly, Sovereignty have picked up the Freedom Alliance’s 2022 candidate, who also stood for his original party in the two recent Kintyre-based by-elections in Argyll and Bute. The only other returning-ish candidates that I can make out are the Greens (stood in Bishopbriggs North and Campsie) and Alba (Bishopbriggs South) from 2022, and the Conservatives from Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch in 2024. I have no idea whether the SNP and Labour candidates are related, either to one another or the sitting SNP councillor!
🟠Lib Dem: Marthos Christoforou
⚫Alba: Eamonn Gallagher
🔵Conservative: Satbir Kaur Gill
🟣Reform UK: Bruce Hampton
🔴Labour: Aidan Marshall
🟡SNP: Serina Marshall
🟤Sovereignty: Alan McManus
🟢Green: Elizabeth Rowan
Analysis
In theory the Lib Dems are starting from a comparatively weak position here, in a distant third place. Running 2022 as a single-seat vote has the SNP beating Labour by 4.2%. Although Labour have struggled to convert SNP 2022 leads into gains lately, at a necessary swing of 2.1% this would be one of their likelier bets. However, if there’s one thing the Lib Dems are good at, it’s blitzing a ward with leaflets and doorknocking.
We saw that in effect in Strathallan and (although they regretted it soon after) Colinton and Fairmilehead. You have to assume they wouldn’t have been so daft in the first place as to stand the councillor from the East Dunbartonshire Council ward that least overlaps with the Mid Dunbartonshire constituency if they weren’t intending on blanketing it in leaflets at the resulting by-election.
That may be more or less effective depending on how personal Murray’s vote actually was. If people were mostly voting for her, their starting point may actually be a good bit lower. If it was only a little bit personal, it’ll be an easier win. Given the complexities here I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the SNP, Labour or Lib Dems won it, but I think in deference to the power of their machine, I’m going for the Lib Dems as the marginal favourites.
Prediction
Lean Lib Dem.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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