Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
We’re starting 2025 with a few rather peculiar by-elections. Colinton and Fairmilehead on the same day would have been notable for being a double regardless, but even more so when one of the vacancies arose from the winner of the by-election a week before resigning. Although we’re yet to get final clarity, it’s also possible we’ll see a Glasgow by-election soon after a councillor accidentally got disqualified just after winning a by-election. Here however for Shetland North, it’s because Labour’s accidental councillor Tom Morton has stood down.
You may wonder how one can become an accidental councillor. Well firstly, Shetland North elects 3 councillors, and only 3 candidates stood. Therefore they were “elected” by default regardless of who they were. Secondly, Morton stood as a favour to his party, stating in an interview published last July he otherwise had “absolutely no intention of standing”, was nonetheless asked to do so by party leader Anas Sarwar, adding “I thought I had absolutely no chance because most councillors here are independents.”
In the same interview when asked if he was happy to be a councillor, he said “I have mixed feelings about it.” A few months later he clearly decided he’d had enough of the role, writing at length about why it wasn’t for him. That piece is I think quite a interesting mixture of humour and honesty about the realities of being a councillor, especially in Shetland. As someone who briefly dipped a toe into being a community councillor myself and found the whole experience utterly pointless, I recognise one of the critiques in there.
I’m was also struck, as I was when the brief experiment a few years back that was the “Orkney Manifesto Group” made the same point, by Morton pointing out that the largely Independent nature of islands councils isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, even if the councillors are well intentioned. That’s a cautionary tale for those tiresome bores putting forth the intellectually lazy idea our politics would be vastly improved by abolishing political parties. This forgets how parties arise in the first place: people with (largely) shared views agreeing to work together to advance them, something party affiliation at least makes transparent at election time.
Although in this case it was a party candidate in an otherwise Independent Islands ward that was caught out, this is a reminder of one of STV’s inherent deficiencies. Voters do often expect parties to put forward candidates in their area, and get quite put out when they don’t. Yet most parties cannot win everywhere, and would actively weaken themselves if they foolishly attempted to. As such many candidates standing at every election are “paper candidates” who don’t expect to win. Occasionally (see also Buckie in Moray, or Fortissat in North Lanarkshire back in 2017) that means one of those candidates gets elected against their intention. That’ll be an issue so long as we use STV (or FPTP).
Ward Details
Shetland North is one of 7 wards in Shetland, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. The name rather points to the area the ward covers, which is the northernmost portions of Shetland’s mainland. An isthmus at Brae, a bit to the south of the Sullom Voe Oil Terminal, connects the bulk of the mainland to the Northmavine peninsula. There’s also a short bridge connecting the otherwise separate island of Muckle Roe.
Sullom Voe holds an importance beyond the obvious one with regards to energy. Although you’ll forgive me for not having the exact details to hand, basically part of setting that whole terminal up was Shetland being given and exercising a range of powers over the seas in the area. That made them a formal part of the council area in a way that, for example, the seas between the mainland and Bressay or Yell and Unst are not. That’s what results in the often tantrum-inducing infill between mainland and Yell in many maps, taken as some kind of slight or incompetence on the part of those making them, rather than what it is: an artefact of the administrative geography in the data we’re using.
For the Scottish Parliament this obviously lies within the Shetland constituency, and in the UK Parliament it’s the joint Orkney and Shetland seat. Both have been held by the Lib Dems for a very long time.
Electoral History
This being Shetland, the ward has been almost entirely Independent throughout the STV era. At the very first outing in 2007 those Independents were Bill Manson (who’d been councillor for Northmavine, Muckle Roe and Busta), Alastair Cooper and Addie Doull. Of those only Alastair Cooper stood for re-election in 2012, and was joined by Andrea Manson and Drew Ratter.
Ratter didn’t stand in 2017, which meant newcomer Emma Macdonald picked up the vacant seat. She was the only other Independent on the ballot that year, as numbers dropped from 8 candidates in 2007, to 7 in 2012, then just 4 in total. That decrease in electoral interest continued into 2022, when McDonald and Manson stood for re-election and Labour were able to pick up Cooper’s old seat by default as only 3 candidates stood for the 3 seats. Interestingly enough, the two Independents here ended up with the leadership posts in the council after this election: Macdonald as political Leader, and Manson as Convener (chair).
There’s really not a lot to be garnered from the pattern of votes over time given the Independent nature of representation. One thing to point out is you might be wondering where Doull’s little mark is for 2007 in the above chart. There was only a 1 vote difference between Doull and Manson, so their dots overlap. Another might be to point to the 4% the Conservatives won here in 2017, when they had the only party candidate. That may go some way to explaining why Morton thought that in this ward specifically he had very little chance whatsoever.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
Independent: Emma MacdonaldIndependent: Andrea Manson
Labour: Tom Morton
Change vs 2017: +1 Labour, -1 Independent (Alastair Cooper retired)
Turnout: N/A
Electorate: N/A
Valid: N/A
Spoiled: N/A
Quota: N/A
Candidates
Independent: Emma MacdonaldIndependent: Andrea MansonLabour: Tom Morton
As the number of candidates nominated in Shetland North was equal to the number of seats available, all candidates were elected unopposed and no vote was held.
Due to the heavily Independent nature of Islands councils, we can reasonably assume Independents would have won seats, though it is impossible to be certain who would have won at a contested election. In addition, it is impossible to know whether Labour would have won a seat. As no vote was held, the candidates are listed as elected in alphabetical order.
By-Election
Candidates
Emphasising what a fluke it was to have had a party councillor in this ward, there’s only two candidates for this by-election, both Independents. Neither of them have stood in any of the recent elections.
⚪Independent: Natasha Cornick
⚪Independent: Andrew Hall
Analysis
Well, an Independent is going to win, I can tell you that much. Which of the two I obviously have no idea, and for folk who love to take by-elections as nationally representative there’s no option for that here. The one interesting titbit to point out is that if Cornick wins, it’ll make this the only ward in Shetland to have an all-women councillor team.
Prediction
Independent Win.
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