Central Scotland – 2016 Results and 2021 Candidates

Central Scotland incorporates the historically heavily industrialised stretch of the Central Belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh. It consists of parts of three Council Areas – Falkirk and North Lanarkshire in full, plus the central portion of South Lanarkshire. The original 1999 version of the Central Region extended even further, incorporating the Kilmarnock and Loudon area of East Ayrshire!

From the centuries-old burghs of Falkirk and Hamilton, to the mining and steelworking capitals of Coatbridge and Motherwell, and the Glasgow-overspill New Towns of Cumbernauld and East Kilbride, this region is defined by Central Belt Scotland’s industrial heritage. That meant the area was overwhelmingly Labour by the latter half of the 20th century. Cumbernauld did briefly have a Conservative MP as part of the East Dunbartonshire constituency in February 1974, before that then became an SNP MP from October that year until 1979. 

After that, the whole area was consistently Labour for parliamentary elections, with no other party really getting a look in. When Labour swept almost every seat in the Central Belt in 1997, that just meant their already weighty majorities in this area were padded further.

MSPs Elected:
9 Labour (all Constituency)
5 SNP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Independent (Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West Constituency)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

MSPs Elected:
9 Labour (all Constituency)
3 SNP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Independent (Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West Constituency)
1 SSP (Regional)
1 SSCUP (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

8 Labour (all Constituency)
7 SNP (5 Regional, 2 Constituency)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

MSPs Elected:
9 SNP (6 Constituency, 3 Regional)
6 Labour (3 Constituency, 3 Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)

MSPs Elected:
9 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (all Regional)
3 Conservative (all Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

At this point, with the SNP still polling extremely well and Labour lower than their 2016 result, don’t expect to see any changes in the constituencies. Those are almost certain to see the SNP romp home with a clean sweep again.

If change does come, it’ll be via the list seats. Both Labour and the Conservatives are at risk of losing a list seats here, with the latter currently more likely to do so according to my model. Looking within the pro-Union bloc, with their Brexit Bounce all but dissipated the Lib Dems are vanishingly unlikely to do nab a seat given this is their weakest region.

The SNP’s strength here is such that on a good day could actually pick up a list seat in addition to their constituency haul, but that may need more growth than polling suggests they’ll achieve. Alternatively, the Greens need the least growth (around 2,000 votes short in 2016) of any challenging party to pick the seat up, and seem most likely to do so at this moment in time.